China Desk Digest 2026-10-05

Copper: SHFE Backwardation Deepens as Beijing Weighs Anglo–Teck Supply Commitments

SHFE copper's front-month spread stood at 800 CNY/t on 2026-09-30, keeping the curve in backwardation (China domestic curve, as of 2026-09-30). That premium signals nearby tightness that desk traders will watch for delivery-month pressure. Separately, China is seeking copper concentrate supply commitments as a condition for approving the Anglo–Teck merger (SMM_EN, 2026-10-05). Any binding commitments could reshape concentrate flows and feed directly into the term structure already in backwardation.

SHFE Term Structure: Copper, TA and Lithium Backwardated; Steel, Gold, Silver in Contango

The SHFE copper curve held a 800 CNY/t front-month premium, a 0.73% backwardation, as of 2026-09-30 (China domestic curve, as of 2026-09-30). CZCE TA showed the steepest inversion at 356 CNY/t, or 5.35 percent, while GFEX lithium carbonate carried a 520 CNY/t premium (China domestic curve, as of 2026-09-30). On the soft side, rebar sat at -58 CNY/t, gold at -2.24, and silver at -32, all in contango (China domestic curve, as of 2026-09-30). No main-month rolls occurred across the board.

Yangshan Copper Premiums Flat at 119.00 and 114.00 on 2026-09-30

Yangshan copper warrant premiums held at an average of 119.00, unchanged on the day, while bill premiums stayed at 114.00 (Yangshan copper premium, as of 2026-09-30). The lack of movement suggests import arbitrage conditions were stable into the holiday. Traders tracking physical demand against the SHFE backwardation will note that flat premiums alongside a 800 CNY/t front spread points to steady, not tightening, onshore availability (China domestic curve, as of 2026-09-30).

Agri Spreads: Soybeans Accelerate Higher, Live Hogs Slide, Sugar Turns Up

SunSirs monitoring showed soybeans' average spread widening to 4.00 CNY/t on Oct 5, with M10 and M20 diverging further as prices accelerate higher (Sina_Futures, 2026-10-05). Live hogs moved the other way, their spread deepening to -0.21 CNY/kg as moving averages diverged downward (Sina_Futures, 2026-10-05). Sugar's M10 crossed above M20, flipping the spread to 0.17 CNY/t and signaling the start of an upward move (Sina_Futures, 2026-10-05).

Agri Spreads: Palm Oil Narrows, Corn Decline Slows on Oct 5

Palm oil's average spread came in at -112.80 CNY/t on Oct 5, shifting from negative expansion to narrowing, a sign the decline is slowing and a turning point has emerged (Sina_Futures, 2026-10-05). Corn's spread continued narrowing on the negative side to -2.85 CNY/t, indicating the pace of its decline is easing (Sina_Futures, 2026-10-05). Both readings point to fading downside momentum across the oilseed and grain complex.

Data provenance

• China domestic term structure (M1-M2 spread, main contract) as of 2026-09-30
• Yangshan copper premium (USD/t) as of 2026-09-30
• China headlines, 2026-10-05
• English-native China flashes — SMM_EN / Mysteel_EN, 2026-10-05