China Desk Digest 2026-10-13

Copper Backwardation Deepens as LME Cancelled Warrants Hit 41.84%

SHFE copper's front-month spread widened to 660 CNY/t, with the 2610 contract at 111560 against 110900 for 2611, a 0.6% premium (China domestic curve, as of 2026-10-13). The curve stayed in backwardation with no roll in the main 2611 month. LME copper cancelled warrants reached 96775.00 tonnes against opening stock of 231275.00, a 41.84% ratio (LME warrant data, as of 2026-10-13). Traders should note the tightness signal across both exchanges, even as SHFE copper gained only 0.2% in daytime trade (SMM_CN, 2026-10-13).

Iron Ore Contango Persists While Imported Margins Narrow to 8.40 Yuan/mt

DCE iron ore's 2611 contract traded at 687 against 682.5 for 2612, a 4.5 spread and 0.66% premium, keeping the curve in backwardation (China domestic curve, as of 2026-10-13). The main month held at 2701 with no roll. Softer spot pricing narrowed imported iron ore margins to 8.40 yuan/mt as freight cushioned the decline (SMM_EN, 2026-10-13). Iron ore led black series losses at -1.1% in daytime close (SMM_CN, 2026-10-13). Watch whether the backwardation holds as spot demand weakens.

Yangshan Copper Premiums Slip 4.00 to 126.00 as Buyers Hold Back

Yangshan copper warehouse receipt premiums averaged 126.00, down 4.00, while Bill of Lading premiums held flat at 125.00 (Yangshan copper premium, as of 2026-10-13). South China spot markets saw suppliers maintain yesterday's quotes but downstream buyers refused to purchase despite inventory declines (SMM_EN, 2026-10-13). North China discounts continued to fall as futures consolidated (SMM_EN, 2026-10-13). The premium erosion signals weakening import appetite even as SHFE copper's term structure stays tight.

Gold Curve Slightly Contango as Kazakhstan Flags Reserve Shift

SHFE gold's 2610 contract traded at 899.94 against 901.62 for 2611, a -1.68 spread and -0.19% premium, keeping the curve in contango (China domestic curve, as of 2026-10-13). The main month stayed at 2612 with no roll. Kazakhstan, the world's second-largest gold buyer in 2025, plans to cut gold's share of reserves from nearly 78% to 75% by year-end, implying roughly 1.99 billion USD of sales (Sina_Futures, 2026-10-13). Bank of America forecasts a Q4 2026 average of 4,000 USD/oz (Sina_Futures, 2026-10-13).

Soybean Meal Spread Re-widens to 5.90 CNY/t as Momentum Builds

SunSirs monitored the soybean oil mean spread at 15.00 CNY/t on Oct 13, shifting from widening positively to narrowing (Sina_Futures, 2026-10-13). Soybean meal's mean spread re-widened to 5.90 CNY/t, indicating continued price rises with re-accelerating momentum (Sina_Futures, 2026-10-13). Ethylene glycol's mean spread re-widened negatively to -98.75 CNY/t, signaling downside momentum re-accelerating (Sina_Futures, 2026-10-13). DCE soybean meal's 2611 contract traded at 3341 against 3382 for 2612, a -41 spread in contango (China domestic curve, as of 2026-10-13).

Data provenance

• China domestic term structure (M1-M2 spread, main contract) as of 2026-10-13
• LME cancelled warrants as of 2026-10-13
• Yangshan copper premium (USD/t) as of 2026-10-13
• China headlines, 2026-10-13
• English-native China flashes — SMM_EN / Mysteel_EN, 2026-10-13