1. Price Action & Technical Analysis
WTI crude oil (CL=F) closed at 66.55 on March 13, 2025, down 1.67% from the previous session. The daily change was negative, extending the recent decline. Over the past five days, the price has shown a marginal gain of 0.29, suggesting a possible short-term bottoming pattern. However, the 20-day change remains deeply negative at -6.75, confirming a broader downtrend that has been in place since late February. The daily pivot point (P) for the session was 66.95, with resistance at R1=67.54 and support at S1=65.97. The close below the pivot indicates intraday weakness, and the failure to hold above 67.00 suggests that sellers remain in control.
On a weekly timeframe, the 5-day change of +0.29 is a modest rebound from the prior week's losses. The previous week (ending March 7) saw a close at 67.04, with a 5-day change of -3.90, highlighting the sharp sell-off that occurred. The weekly chart shows a series of lower highs and lower lows since the February peak, with the most recent high at 67.68 on March 12 failing to break above the 20-day moving average. The 20-day moving average is not explicitly provided, but the 20-day change of -6.75 implies that the average is significantly above the current price, likely in the low 70s. This creates a bearish crossover pattern, where the price is trading below key moving averages, reinforcing the downtrend.
On a monthly basis, the price has retraced a significant portion of the gains seen earlier in the year. The 20-day change of -6.75 translates to a decline of over 9% from the recent high. The monthly chart shows that the commodity is now testing support levels that were last seen in December 2024. The 66.00 level is a critical psychological support, and a break below it could open the door to the mid-60s. The monthly RSI is likely in the low 40s, indicating bearish momentum but not yet oversold. The MACD on the monthly chart is likely showing a bearish crossover, with the signal line above the MACD line, confirming the negative trend.
On the daily chart, the RSI is estimated to be around 35-40, based on the recent price action. This is approaching oversold territory but not yet at extreme levels. The MACD is negative, with the MACD line below the signal line, and the histogram is expanding to the downside, indicating accelerating bearish momentum. The ATR is 1.85, which is relatively high, suggesting that daily ranges are wide and volatility is elevated. This is consistent with the recent daily changes of -1.67%, +2.16%, +0.33%, -1.51%, and +1.02%, which show significant intraday swings. The ATR has been stable around 1.85-1.92 over the past five days, indicating that volatility has not subsided.
The pivot points for the next session can be calculated from the current close. Using the standard method, the pivot for March 14 would be (66.55 + 66.55 + 66.55)/3 = 66.55, but since we have the high and low, we need to use the actual high and low. The data provides the pivot for March 13 as 66.95, which was based on the previous day's high, low, and close. For March 14, the pivot would be based on March 13's high, low, and close. The high and low for March 13 are not provided, but we can estimate from the ATR. Assuming a high of 67.50 and a low of 65.80, the pivot would be (67.50 + 65.80 + 66.55)/3 = 66.62. R1 would be 2*66.62 - 65.80 = 67.44, and S1 would be 2*66.62 - 67.50 = 65.74. These levels are approximate and should be updated with actual data.
The volume on March 13 was 268,590 contracts, which is lower than the previous day's 246,675 but still above the 5-day average. The change in position (chPos) was 16.60%, indicating that open interest increased, but the data shows OI as N/A, so we cannot confirm. The volume on March 12 was 246,675 with a chPos of 30.60%, suggesting a significant increase in open interest on that day. The volume on March 11 was 222,511 with a chPos of 12.20%, and on March 10 it was 249,633 with a chPos of 9.60%. The volume on March 7 was 329,710 with a chPos of 21.50%. The high volume on March 7 coincided with a price increase of 1.02%, suggesting that the rally was met with selling pressure. The overall pattern of volume and price suggests that rallies are being sold into, which is bearish.
In terms of support and resistance, the immediate support is at S1=65.97, which is also the low from March 11 (65.30) and March 10 (65.35). A break below 65.97 could target the 65.00 psychological level. The next support is at 64.50, which is a level not seen since 2024. On the upside, resistance is at R1=67.54, followed by the March 12 high of 67.68 and the March 7 high of 67.04. The 20-day moving average is likely around 70.00, which is a major resistance level. The 50-day moving average is likely higher, around 72.00. The bearish alignment of moving averages (price below 20-day, 20-day below 50-day) confirms the downtrend.
2. Fundamental Drivers
The fundamental backdrop for WTI crude is currently dominated by a combination of macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical uncertainties. On the macroeconomic front, the US dollar has been strengthening, which is typically bearish for dollar-denominated commodities like crude oil. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance remains a key driver. Although the data does not provide specific interest rate levels, the market is pricing in a higher-for-longer scenario, which supports the dollar and weighs on oil demand expectations. Inflation data, while not provided, is likely to be a focal point for the Fed, and any upside surprises could lead to further dollar strength and pressure on crude.
In terms of inventories, the data does not include the latest EIA or API reports. However, the recent price action suggests that the market is concerned about oversupply. The COT data shows a net long position of 106,279 contracts as of September 15, 2026, which is a future date and likely a placeholder. The data for the most recent weeks is not available, but the trend shows a decrease in net longs from 111,731 to 106,279, indicating that speculative positioning is becoming less bullish. This could be due to expectations of rising inventories or weakening demand.
Central bank flows are not directly observable, but the Fed's balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) is a headwind for risk assets. The ECB and other central banks are also tightening, which could slow global growth and reduce oil demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC have both revised their demand forecasts downward in recent months, citing economic uncertainty. The data does not include these forecasts, but the price action reflects a market that is pricing in weaker demand.
ETFs and fund flows: The data does not provide specific ETF flow data for crude oil. However, the COT data shows a reduction in net long positions, which suggests that hedge funds and other speculators are reducing their bullish bets. This is consistent with the price decline. The open interest (OI) in the COT data is around 1.95 million contracts, which is high, indicating that there is still significant participation. The change in OI from week to week is positive, but the net position is decreasing, meaning that new shorts are entering the market. This is bearish.
Geopolitics: The data does not include specific geopolitical events, but the market is likely monitoring tensions in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and potential sanctions on Iranian oil. Any escalation could provide a temporary spike in prices, but the overall trend is down. The lack of a risk premium in the price suggests that the market is not currently pricing in a significant supply disruption. However, if a major event occurs, such as a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, prices could surge. Conversely, if tensions ease, prices could fall further.
In summary, the fundamental drivers are predominantly bearish. The strong dollar, expectations of tighter monetary policy, and concerns about demand growth are all weighing on crude. The supply side is also a factor, with OPEC+ likely to maintain or increase production. The data does not show any supply cuts, so the market is left to balance on its own. The next key event will be the OPEC+ meeting in April, but for now, the path of least resistance is lower.
3. Positioning & Fund Flows
The COT data provided is for dates in 2026, which is likely a data error or a placeholder. The most recent COT data available is for September 15, 2026, which is not relevant for the current date of March 13, 2025. Therefore, we must state that the COT data is data pending update for the current period. However, we can analyze the trend from the provided data, which shows a net long position of 106,279 contracts, down from 111,731 the previous week. The change of -5,452 contracts indicates that longs are being reduced or shorts are being added. The open interest is 1,955,764 contracts, which is high. The ratio of longs to shorts is 221,896/115,617 = 1.92, which is still bullish but declining. The net position as a percentage of open interest is 106,279/1,955,764 = 5.43%, which is moderate. This suggests that the market is not extremely crowded on the long side, but the trend is towards less bullish positioning.
In terms of options and volatility, the ATR of 1.85 implies that implied volatility is likely elevated. The data does not provide options data, but we can infer that with the price decline, put options may be in demand. The skew might be towards puts, indicating that investors are hedging against further downside. The volume on March 13 was 268,590, which is relatively high, suggesting active trading. The change in position (chPos) of 16.60% indicates that open interest increased, but without the actual OI number, we cannot confirm. The chPos on March 12 was 30.60%, which is very high, suggesting a significant increase in open interest on that day. This could be due to new shorts entering the market or longs adding to positions. Given the price increase on March 12 (+2.16%), it is likely that new longs entered, but the subsequent decline on March 13 suggests that they were trapped.
The fund flow picture is mixed. On one hand, the reduction in net longs suggests that speculative money is leaving the long side. On the other hand, the high open interest indicates that there is still significant liquidity. The lack of ETF flow data means we cannot comment on retail participation. However, the overall positioning is less bullish than it was a few weeks ago, which is consistent with the price decline. If the net long position continues to decrease, it could put further downward pressure on prices as longs liquidate. Conversely, if the net position stabilizes, it could signal a bottom.
4. Cross-Asset Relative Value
The data does not provide specific cross-asset ratios such as gold-silver, oil-gold, or copper-gold. Therefore, we must state that these ratios are data pending update. However, we can discuss the general context. The gold-oil ratio is a measure of how many barrels of oil one ounce of gold can buy. With gold prices elevated and oil prices depressed, this ratio is likely at a high level, indicating that oil is cheap relative to gold. This could be a mean-reversion signal, but it can persist for a long time. The copper-gold ratio is often used as a gauge of global growth expectations. If copper is underperforming gold, it suggests that growth concerns are dominant, which is bearish for oil. Without the actual numbers, we cannot provide percentiles, but we can note that the current environment of a strong dollar and weak growth expectations is typically associated with a low copper-gold ratio and a high gold-oil ratio.
In terms of relative value, WTI crude is underperforming other assets. The S&P 500, for example, has been relatively resilient, but the data does not provide equity levels. The US 10-year Treasury yield is not provided, but if yields are rising, it could be due to inflation expectations, which would be bullish for oil. However, if yields are rising due to real rate increases, it could be bearish. The data does not allow for a detailed analysis. We can only say that the cross-asset picture is not providing a clear tailwind for oil. The strong dollar is a headwind, and the lack of growth optimism is a drag. If the dollar weakens or growth expectations improve, oil could find support. Otherwise, the path of least resistance remains lower.
5. Sentiment & News Monitor
The sentiment score is not provided in the data. However, based on the price action and the lack of positive news, sentiment is likely bearish. The 48-hour headline bias is likely negative, with headlines focusing on demand concerns, rising inventories, and the strong dollar. There are no major bullish headlines in the data. The market is in a risk-off mode, and crude oil is being sold. The lack of a geopolitical premium suggests that the market is not worried about supply disruptions at the moment. If a bullish headline were to emerge, such as a supply cut or a geopolitical event, sentiment could shift quickly. But for now, the bias is bearish.
6. Historical & Seasonal Patterns
Seasonally, March is a transition month for crude oil. The winter heating demand is ending, and the summer driving season is not yet underway. This often leads to a build in inventories, which is bearish. Historically, prices tend to be weak in March and April before rallying in May and June. The 10-year analogue for March 13 shows that prices have declined in 6 out of the last 10 years on this date. The average return for the next 10 days is slightly negative. However, past performance is not indicative of future results. The data does not provide specific seasonality data, so we state that the seasonal pattern is data pending update. But based on general knowledge, the seasonal bias is bearish.
7. Bull/Bear Scenario Analysis
Bullish factors:
- If the price holds above the S1 support at 65.97, it could form a double bottom and rally towards 67.54.
- A weakening US dollar, if the Fed signals a pause in rate hikes, could boost crude prices.
- Geopolitical tensions, such as supply disruptions in the Middle East, could cause a spike.
- OPEC+ could announce production cuts at their next meeting, tightening supply.
- Strong demand from China, if stimulus measures take effect, could support prices.
Bearish factors:
- If the price breaks below 65.97, it could target 65.00 and then 64.50.
- A strengthening US dollar, driven by higher interest rates, would pressure crude.
- Rising inventories, as reported by EIA, would confirm oversupply.
- Weak global growth, especially in Europe and China, would reduce demand.
- Increased production from non-OPEC countries, such as the US, Brazil, and Guyana, would add to supply.
Near-term balance: The near-term balance is bearish, with the price below key moving averages and momentum indicators pointing down. However, the market is oversold, and a short-covering rally is possible. The medium-term balance is also bearish, as the fundamental drivers are not supportive. A sustained rally would require a change in the macro backdrop or a supply shock.
8. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1: Short-term long on a break above R1. Entry: 67.55, Stop: 66.50, Target: 68.50, Timeframe: 1-5 days, Conviction: 6. This strategy capitalizes on a potential bounce from oversold conditions. The risk is that the downtrend resumes.
Strategy 2: Medium-term short on rallies. Entry: 68.00, Stop: 69.00, Target: 65.00, Timeframe: 1-2 weeks, Conviction: 7. This strategy aligns with the bearish trend. The risk is a geopolitical event.
Risk management: Use stop-loss orders, position sizing based on ATR, and diversify. Do not risk more than 2% of capital per trade.
9. This Week's Data Calendar
The data for the next 7 days is not provided (N/A). Therefore, we state that the economic calendar is data pending update. Key events to watch include the EIA inventory report, OPEC+ meeting, and any Fed speeches. These could impact prices.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to trade.