1. Price Action & Technical Analysis
Silver (SI=F) closed at 32.2260 on 2025-05-14, down 1.95% from the prior close of 32.8680. The daily pivot (P) is 32.1887, with resistance R1 at 32.2924 and support S1 at 32.1224. The close is above the pivot but below R1, indicating a mildly bearish intraday bias. The 5-day change is -0.94, and the 20-day change is 0.00, showing that over the past month, silver has essentially returned to its starting point, despite a peak 20-day change of 6.78 on 2025-05-08. This suggests a failed rally and a potential shift in momentum.
The 5-day closing sequence: 32.3780 (05-08), 32.6760 (05-09), 32.3880 (05-12), 32.8680 (05-13), 32.2260 (05-14). The high of this sequence is 32.8680 on 05-13, and the low is 32.2260 on 05-14. The 20-day high is not explicitly given, but the 20-day change of 6.78 on 05-08 implies a higher level earlier; however, we lack the exact 20-day high. The 20-day change of 0.00 on 05-14 means the current close is equal to the close 20 days ago, which is a neutral signal.
Moving averages are not provided in the data, so we cannot compute exact MA levels. However, the pivot and R1/S1 levels serve as short-term reference points. The ATR has increased from 0.5919 on 05-09 to 0.6839 on 05-14, a rise of about 15.5%, indicating rising volatility. This is consistent with the larger daily swings: -0.47% on 05-08, +0.92% on 05-09, -0.88% on 05-12, +1.48% on 05-13, -1.95% on 05-14. The chPos (close position within the day's range) was 29.00% on 05-14, meaning the close was in the lower third of the day's range, a bearish sign. On 05-13, chPos was 63.40%, showing a stronger close. The volume on 05-14 was 57 contracts, which is low compared to 526 on 05-08, but volume data is sparse and may not be reliable.
RSI and MACD are not provided, so we cannot compute them. We note that the 5-day change turned negative (-0.94) after being positive on 05-09 (+2.15) and 05-12 (+0.57). The 20-day change dropped from 6.54 on 05-09 to 0.00 on 05-14, a sharp deceleration. This suggests that the upward momentum has faded. The pivot P at 32.1887 is slightly below the close, so a break below P could target S1 at 32.1224. If S1 holds, a bounce to R1 at 32.2924 is possible. The ATR of 0.6839 implies that a 1-ATR move from the close would be roughly 31.5421 to 32.9099, which encompasses the recent range.
On a weekly basis, we lack weekly open/close data, but the 5-day change of -0.94 indicates a down week. The monthly change is 0.00, so silver is flat for the month. The technical picture is neutral-to-bearish in the short term, with the close below the 5-day midpoint and a rising ATR. We would need a close above R1 (32.2924) to signal a bullish reversal, while a close below S1 (32.1224) would open the door to further downside.
2. Fundamental Drivers
Interest rates and the US dollar are primary drivers for silver. The data block does not include current rates or DXY levels, so we cannot cite specific numbers. However, we can discuss the general framework: silver is a non-yielding asset, so higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding it. If the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, silver may face headwinds. Conversely, expectations of rate cuts could support silver. The data does not provide inflation figures, but silver is often seen as an inflation hedge. Without current CPI or PCE data, we cannot quantify the real rate environment.
Inventories and central-bank flows: The data block does not include silver inventories (e.g., COMEX, LBMA) or central-bank purchase data. We note that central banks typically focus on gold, not silver, so silver's central-bank demand is minimal. ETF flows are also not provided. We cannot cite specific ETF holdings or changes. This is a significant gap; we write “data pending update” for these metrics.
Geopolitics: The data block does not include any geopolitical events. We cannot fabricate news. However, silver can be influenced by industrial demand (solar, electronics) and safe-haven demand. Without specific news, we refrain from speculation.
The COT data, though dated 2026, shows net long positioning of 13,124 contracts as of 2026-09-15, down from 14,386 on 2026-09-08. This indicates that speculative longs have reduced exposure. The open interest (OI) was 103,745 on 2026-09-15, down from 103,250 on 2026-09-08? Actually, OI increased from 103,250 to 103,745, while net longs decreased. This suggests that shorts may have increased or longs liquidated. The long contracts fell from 21,148 to 20,205, and short contracts rose from 6,762 to 7,081. So both longs decreased and shorts increased, a bearish shift. Although this data is from 2026, it is the only positioning data available, and we treat it as a proxy for speculative sentiment, but we must note the date discrepancy.
The US dollar: not provided. Inflation: not provided. Rates: not provided. We can only say that in the absence of fresh macro data, silver is trading on technicals and positioning. The economic calendar is empty for the next 7 days, so no scheduled catalysts. This increases the risk of rangebound trading.
3. Positioning & Fund Flows
The COT data provided is for 2026, which is not the current period. We must be transparent: the most recent COT data in the block is dated 2026-09-15, which is over a year after the report date of 2025-05-14. This is likely a data error or placeholder. We cannot use it to infer current positioning. We write “data pending update” for current COT. However, we can analyze the provided data as a historical example: net long 13,124, with longs 20,205 and shorts 7,081. The net long as a percentage of OI is 12.65%. The week-over-week change in net long is -1,262, a decrease of 8.8%. This suggests that speculators were reducing bullish bets. If this pattern were current, it would be a bearish signal. But we cannot assume it applies to 2025-05-14.
Options and volatility: The data block does not include options data or implied volatility. We note that ATR is a realized volatility measure, and it has risen to 0.6839. This may attract option sellers, but we lack implied vol. We cannot compute skew or open interest in options.
Fund flows: ETF flows are not provided. We cannot cite any numbers. The volume on 2025-05-14 was 57 contracts, which is very low, but volume data is inconsistent (526 on 05-08, 7 on 05-09). This may indicate illiquid conditions or data errors. We caution against overinterpreting volume.
Crowding: Without current COT, we cannot assess crowding. The 2026 data shows net long, but not extreme. We would need the ratio of net long to OI and historical percentiles. Not available.
In summary, positioning data is stale and unreliable for the current date. We recommend treating it as unavailable. The lack of fresh positioning data increases uncertainty.
4. Cross-Asset Relative Value
The data block does not include gold, oil, or copper prices. Therefore, we cannot compute the gold-silver ratio, oil-gold ratio, or copper-gold ratio. We write “data pending update” for all relative value metrics. This is a critical omission, as silver's relative value to gold is a key driver. Without it, we cannot assess whether silver is cheap or expensive. We can only note that silver is a hybrid asset, influenced by both precious and industrial metals. In the absence of cross-asset data, we cannot provide a relative value analysis. We recommend monitoring the gold-silver ratio, which typically ranges between 60 and 90; a high ratio may indicate silver undervaluation. But we cannot cite a current number.
5. Sentiment & News Monitor
The data block does not include a sentiment score or news headlines. We cannot fabricate media quotes. We write “data pending update” for sentiment and news. The only sentiment proxy is the price action: the 1.95% drop on 2025-05-14 and the low chPos of 29.00% suggest bearish short-term sentiment. The 5-day change of -0.94 and 20-day change of 0.00 indicate a lack of directional conviction. The ATR increase suggests nervousness. Without news, we cannot attribute the move to any specific event. We advise caution.
6. Historical & Seasonal Patterns
The data block does not include historical or seasonal data. We write “data pending update” for seasonality. We cannot provide 10-year analogues. We note that May is typically a seasonally weak period for silver, but we cannot confirm with data. Without historical context, we cannot draw conclusions.
7. Bull/Bear Scenario Analysis
Bullish factors:
- If silver holds above S1 at 32.1224, it could bounce toward R1 at 32.2924 and then the 05-13 high of 32.8680.
- If the US dollar weakens (data pending), silver could benefit.
- If inflation expectations rise (data pending), silver may attract safe-haven demand.
- If speculative positioning becomes less net long (based on 2026 data showing reduction), a contrarian bullish signal could emerge if shorts cover.
Bearish factors:
- If silver breaks below S1 at 32.1224, it could target the 32.00 psychological level and then 31.5421 (1-ATR below close).
- If the 20-day change remains at 0.00 or turns negative, momentum is lacking.
- If ATR continues to rise, volatility may deter longs.
- If the 2026 COT pattern of reducing net longs is a guide, further long liquidation could pressure prices.
Near-term balance: The close is above the pivot but below R1, and the chPos is low. The 5-day change is negative. The balance is slightly bearish. Medium-term: The 20-day change is flat, so no clear trend. We would need a break of either R1 or S1 to establish direction.
8. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy 1: Short-term range trade. Given the close at 32.2260, pivot at 32.1887, R1 at 32.2924, S1 at 32.1224, and ATR at 0.6839, we propose a long if price holds above S1. Entry: 32.1500 (near S1), stop: 31.9500 (below S1 and 1/3 ATR), target: 32.5000 (above R1). Timeframe: 1-5 days. Size: 1% risk per trade. Conviction: 6/10.
Strategy 2: Breakout short. If price closes below S1 at 32.1224, enter short on a retest. Entry: 32.1000, stop: 32.3500 (above R1), target: 31.5000 (1-ATR below). Timeframe: 1-5 days. Size: 1% risk. Conviction: 7/10.
Risk management: Use stop-loss orders, limit position size to 1-2% of capital, and monitor ATR for volatility. Avoid overleveraging. The empty calendar means no event risk, but also no catalyst.
9. This Week's Data Calendar
The economic calendar for the next 7 days is empty (N/A). No major releases are scheduled. This reduces the likelihood of news-driven volatility. Traders should focus on technical levels and cross-asset flows. Data pending update for any unscheduled events.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to trade.