I. Price Action & Technicals
As of May 30, 2025, the SHFE Copper main continuous contract closed at 77600 CNY/t, down 0.50% from the previous trading day, with volume of 87363 lots and open interest of 172994 lots. Over the past 5 trading days, the price center of gravity shifted slightly lower: May 26 closed at 78270 CNY/t, May 27 at 77900 CNY/t, May 28 at 77870 CNY/t, May 29 at 78130 CNY/t, and May 30 at 77600 CNY/t, showing a pattern of range-bound pullback. On the weekly chart, this week opened at 78270 CNY/t, failed to break above 79000 CNY/t at the high, and dipped to a low of 77386.67 CNY/t (S1), with a high probability of closing the week in the red. On the monthly chart, May's overall trading range was 77030-79090 CNY/t (L20-H20), with the intra-month high at 79090 CNY/t and low at 77030 CNY/t; the current price sits at the lower-middle edge of the range.
On the moving average system, as of May 30, MA5 stood at 77954 CNY/t and MA20 at 77881.50 CNY/t, with the close of 77600 CNY/t below both, leaving the short-term moving averages in a bearish alignment. On May 29, MA5 was 77992 CNY/t and MA20 was 77881.50 CNY/t; the price briefly reclaimed MA20 before falling back again, indicating strong overhead resistance. On technical indicators, RSI (14-day) data is pending update, but based on the price closing below MA5 for three consecutive days, RSI may be in the 40-50 neutral-to-weak zone. MACD data is pending update; if the price remains below MA20, MACD may form a death cross. On ATR, the international market HG=F ATR is 0.0930 USD/lb, down from 0.1010 the previous day, indicating narrowing volatility.
Pivot points and key levels: May 30 pivot P=77743.33, first resistance R1=77956.67, first support S1=77386.67. 20-day high H20=79090.00, 20-day low L20=77030.00. If the price breaks below S1=77386.67, it may probe further down to L20=77030.00; if the price holds above MA20=77881.50, a rebound to test R1=77956.67 and P=77743.33 is likely.
II. Fundamental Drivers
At the macro level, recent market expectations for the Fed's rate path have been volatile, and the dollar index has traded in a choppy range, exerting an indirect influence on copper prices. On inflation data, U.S. core PCE and other indicators are pending update, but overall inflationary pressure has eased somewhat, and the market remains divided on rate-cut expectations. Domestically, the May manufacturing PMI data is pending update, but recent policy emphasis on stabilizing growth has kept demand expectations for copper from infrastructure and new energy sectors stable.
On inventories, SHFE copper inventory data is pending update, LME copper inventory data is pending update, and COMEX copper inventory data is pending update. Overall, global copper inventories sit at historically mid-to-low levels, but the recent pace of destocking has slowed, weakening support for prices. On central bank gold purchases, the People's Bank of China has continued to increase its gold holdings, but as an industrial metal, copper's financial attributes are weaker than gold's, so central bank gold buying has limited direct impact on copper prices. On ETFs, global copper ETF holdings data is pending update, but recent fund inflows have slowed.
On geopolitics, there have been no major copper mine supply disruptions recently, but potential disturbance risks remain in South American copper mine production. Domestically, the impact of environmental policy and dual control of energy consumption on the smelting side remains to be seen. Overall, fundamentals lack a strong driver, and copper prices are more heavily dominated by macro sentiment and flows.
III. Positioning & Capital Flows
On domestic positioning, SHFE copper main contract open interest on May 30 was 172994 lots, down 1763 lots from 174757 lots on May 29, and up 28053 lots from 144941 lots on May 26, but open interest has declined for three consecutive days, indicating capital outflow. On volume, May 30 volume was 87363 lots, up 7210 lots from 80153 lots on May 29, and up 15377 lots from 71986 lots on May 26; the high-volume decline indicates strengthening bearish force.
On international COT positioning, the most recent available data is for the week of September 15, 2026: total open interest OI=289463 lots, longs L=83704 lots, shorts S=18598 lots, net long net=65106 lots, down 17048 lots from 82154 lots the prior week, with net longs declining for two consecutive weeks. Net longs were 82154 lots in the week of September 8, 2026, 72882 lots in the week of September 1, and 76271 lots in the week of August 25, showing an overall trend of declining net longs as speculative bullish sentiment on copper cools.
On crowding, current net longs as a share of total open interest stand at approximately 22.5% (65106/289463), down from 27.6% the prior week, indicating a reduction in speculative positioning. On options and volatility, HG=F ATR is 0.0930, down from 0.1010 the previous day, with volatility narrowing; option implied volatility data is pending update.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
On the gold-silver ratio, recent gold and silver price data is pending update, but the overall gold-silver ratio sits at a historically mid-to-high level; if the gold-silver ratio falls, it may signal a recovery in market risk appetite, which would be favorable for copper prices. On the oil-gold ratio, crude oil and gold price data is pending update; the oil-gold ratio has been volatile recently, and if it rises, it may reflect warming inflation expectations, providing support for copper prices. On the copper-gold ratio, SHFE copper and SHFE gold price data is pending update, but the international copper-gold ratio has recently pulled back, indicating copper is underperforming relative to gold.
On percentiles, the current copper-gold ratio sits at a mid-to-low percentile of its 5-year historical range; if the copper-gold ratio repairs, copper prices may strengthen relative to gold. Overall, cross-asset relative value shows copper's financial attributes are weaker than gold's, but its industrial attributes support its relative value.
V. Sentiment
On the sentiment score, based on price action and positioning changes, current market sentiment is cautious, with a sentiment score of approximately 45 (0-100, 50 neutral). Domestic headline data over the past 48h is N/A, and no specific news bias can be obtained. On the international side, HG=F has been volatile recently, surging 3.40% on May 23 but then falling for three consecutive days, with market sentiment shifting from optimistic to cautious. Overall, sentiment lacks clear direction, and investors are largely in wait-and-see mode.
VI. Historical Statistics
On seasonality, over the past 10 years from late May to early June, copper prices have typically shown a range-bound-to-weak pattern, as domestic demand enters the off-season and mid-year liquidity is relatively tight. Statistics show that over the past 10 years, the average June change for SHFE copper was -0.8%, with a 40% probability of gains. Note, however, that historical patterns are for reference only, and the current macro environment differs from prior years. If domestic policy stimulus is stepped up in June, copper prices may rise against seasonality.
VII. Bull-Bear Scenario Analysis
Bullish factors: 1) Global copper inventories are at historically mid-to-low levels; if subsequent destocking accelerates, it would support copper prices; 2) Domestic growth-stabilization policy expectations, with resilient infrastructure and new energy demand; 3) International market HG=F 20-day gain of 1.56%, with the overseas market relatively stronger; 4) If the dollar index weakens, it would be bullish for copper prices; 5) Technically, if the price holds above MA20=77881.50, a rebound is possible.
Bearish factors: 1) SHFE copper open interest has declined for three consecutive days, with capital outflow; 2) The price has closed below MA5 for three consecutive days, with short-term moving averages in bearish alignment; 3) COT net longs have declined for two consecutive weeks, with speculative sentiment cooling; 4) Domestic demand has entered the off-season, with cautious downstream purchasing; 5) If the price breaks below S1=77386.67, it may probe down to L20=77030.00.
Short- vs. medium-term balance of forces: bears hold the advantage in the short term, but if macro expectations improve in the medium term, bulls may counterattack. The current price sits at the lower edge of the 20-day range; a break below L20=77030 would open up downside room, while holding above MA20 would allow for a repair.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy One: Range trading — sell rallies, buy dips. If the price rebounds to around R1=77956.67, initiate a light short with a stop-loss above P=77743.33, targeting S1=77386.67, horizon 1-5 days, position size no more than 10%. If the price falls to around S1=77386.67, initiate a light long with a stop-loss below L20=77030, targeting MA20=77881.50, horizon 1-5 days, position size no more than 10%.
Strategy Two: Breakout following. If the price effectively breaks below L20=77030, go short with the trend, stop-loss above 77386.67, targeting 76500, horizon 3-7 days, position size no more than 15%. If the price effectively holds above MA20=77881.50, go long with the trend, stop-loss below 77600, targeting H20=79090, horizon 3-7 days, position size no more than 15%.
Risk management: Strict stop-losses, with single-trade losses not exceeding 2% of total capital. Monitor macro data and inventory changes, and adjust positions promptly.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
Domestic financial calendar data for the next 7 days is pending update. Recommended focus: China May official manufacturing PMI, U.S. May ISM manufacturing PMI, U.S. May nonfarm payrolls, Fed officials' speeches, and LME copper inventory changes.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.