I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
As of 2025-06-04, the SHFE Copper main continuous contract closed at 78,200 CNY/t, up 0.5271% from the previous trading day, with a daily volume of 111,379 lots and open interest of 195,214 lots. Over the past 5 trading sessions, the price started from the 5月28日 close of 77,870 CNY/t, and after range-bound consolidation through 5月29日 at 78,130 CNY/t, 5月30日 at 77,600 CNY/t, and 6月3日 at 77,650 CNY/t, it closed higher on 6月4日 with expanded volume, reclaiming the short-term moving average system.
In terms of moving average structure, MA5 on 6月4日 stood at 77,890 CNY/t, MA20 at 77,933 CNY/t, and the close of 78,200 CNY/t was above both MA5 and MA20, with short-term moving averages showing signs of repair from below. However, MA5 remains slightly below MA20, and the moving averages have not yet formed a standard bullish alignment, so trend confirmation still requires validation in subsequent trading sessions. The pivot system shows the daily pivot P at 78,163.33 CNY/t, first resistance R1 at 78,436.67 CNY/t, and first support S1 at 77,926.67 CNY/t, with the close slightly above the pivot, placing it in a neutral-to-strong zone.
On key ranges, the 20-day high H20 is 79,090 CNY/t, and the 20-day low L20 is 77,280 CNY/t (6月3日 was 77,030 CNY/t, with the low slightly raised). Measured against the close of 78,200 CNY/t, the price is about 1.14% from the 20-day high and about 1.19% from the 20-day low, positioning it in the upper-middle part of the recent 20-day range. On volatility, the international market HG=F ATR is 0.0996 USD/lb, slightly down from 0.1019 on 6月3日 and 0.1046 on 6月2日, indicating short-term volatility has somewhat converged, though the absolute level remains elevated.
On the daily timeframe, the 6月4日 bullish candle body covered part of the declines of the prior two days, and volume expanded noticeably versus 81,917 lots on 6月3日, with volume-price coordination leaning positive. On the weekly timeframe, the past 5 days overall rebounded from lows but have not yet broken above prior highs. Monthly timeframe data is limited, so the 20-day range is temporarily used as a medium-term reference. Specific RSI and MACD values are pending updates, but inferred from the price-moving average relationship, momentum indicators are likely in a neutral-to-bullish zone and have not yet entered overbought territory.
On the overall technical picture, key short-term levels are as follows: upside resistance in order is R1 (78,436.67), 20-day high (79,090); downside support in order is pivot P (78,163.33), S1 (77,926.67), MA20 (77,933), 20-day low (77,280). If the close effectively holds above 78,436.67, a test of 79,090 is likely; if 77,926.67 is lost, the probability of a pullback to 77,280 rises.
II. Fundamental Drivers
At the macro level, the data section of this report does not provide the latest specific figures on interest rates, the dollar index, inflation, inventories, ETFs, or geopolitics, and the relevant data is pending updates. Therefore, this section can only make indirect inferences based on available price and positioning information, and does not cite specific numbers for macro variables.
From the international market comparison, HG=F closed at 4.8645 USD/lb on 2025-06-04, up 1.14% on the day, up 4.75% over 5 days, and up 2.73% over 20 days, indicating that international copper prices have had relatively strong momentum recently. SHFE Copper rose 0.5271% on the same day, weaker than the international market, with the domestic-international price ratio converging somewhat in the short term. If the dollar weakens or macro risk appetite recovers, the stronger international copper price pattern may transmit to the domestic market; if the dollar rebounds or risk appetite fades, the probability of both domestic and international markets coming under pressure simultaneously rises.
On inventories and central bank gold purchases, copper as an industrial metal is driven primarily by global manufacturing demand, grid investment, and new energy-related consumption, rather than central bank gold purchases. The data section does not provide SHFE, LME, or COMEX copper inventory data, and inventory levels are pending updates. ETF holdings and geopolitical events likewise lack specific data, so no quantitative judgment is made for now.
From the change in open interest, SHFE Copper main continuous open interest rose from 169,462 lots on 5月28日 to 195,214 lots on 6月4日, an increase of about 25,752 lots, or about 15.2%, while the price rose from 77,870 CNY/t to 78,200 CNY/t over the same period, with early signs of an open interest build accompanying price gains. If open interest continues to increase and the price holds above the moving averages, the sustainability of a capital-driven rebound can be expected; if open interest falls back quickly, caution is warranted regarding short-term long profit-taking.
International COT data (note: the date marked in the data section is 2026, inconsistent with the report date of 2025-06-04; here it is used only as a structural reference, and specific values are pending verification) shows the most recent net long at 65,106 lots, down 17,048 lots from the prior period, with total open interest of 289,463 lots. A decline in net longs usually means speculative long crowding has eased; if the price can still strengthen over the same period, it suggests strong absorption by physical or commercial buying; if the price weakens while net longs decline, it may reflect active long liquidation.
Overall, among fundamental drivers, price and positioning data support a short-term bullish bias, but the absence of macro, inventory, ETF, and geopolitical data prevents the formation of a complete fundamental闭环, and the relevant conclusions need to be revised once data is updated.
III. Positioning Structure & Capital Flows
On domestic positioning, SHFE Copper main continuous open interest has risen continuously over the past 5 days: 169,462 lots on 5月28日, 174,757 lots on 5月29日, 172,994 lots on 5月30日, 182,260 lots on 6月3日, and 195,214 lots on 6月4日. Of this, the single-day increase from 6月3日 to 6月4日 was 12,954 lots, or about 7.1%, the largest single-day open interest build in the past 5 days, and combined with the day's price gain of 0.5271%, it shows capital inflows synchronized with price gains.
On volume, 6月4日 volume was 111,379 lots, up about 36.0% from 81,917 lots on 6月3日 and up about 51.7% from 73,407 lots on 5月28日, a clear expansion in volume. The combination of rising volume, rising open interest, and rising price is usually seen as a signal of strengthening short-term bullish momentum, but attention must also be paid to the possibility that if volume cannot be sustained, the price may enter consolidation.
International COT classification data shows that in the most recent period (data section marked 2026-09-15), total open interest OI was 289,463 lots, longs L at 83,704 lots, shorts S at 18,598 lots, net long at 65,106 lots, with a change Δ of -17,048 lots from the prior period. In the prior period (2026-09-08), net long was 82,154 lots, with Δ of +9,272 lots. After two consecutive weeks of increases, net longs fell back substantially, and long crowding declined at the margin. If this trend continues, further reduction of speculative longs may weigh on international copper prices; if net longs stabilize and rebound, the stronger international market pattern may continue.
On options and volatility, the data section does not provide SHFE Copper options open interest, implied volatility, or skew data, and the relevant indicators are pending updates. The international market HG=F ATR fell from 0.1046 on 6月2日 to 0.0996 on 6月4日, a slight decline in volatility; if ATR continues to fall, the sustainability of a trend after breaking key levels may strengthen; if ATR rises again, the risk of false breakouts increases.
Comprehensive judgment on capital flows: domestic open interest build with volume expansion is bullish, while the decline in international net longs is bearish, creating a certain offset. The short-term capital picture is neutral-to-bullish, but attention should be paid to changes in international net longs and whether domestic open interest can continue to increase.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
The data section does not provide cross-asset prices such as gold, silver, or crude oil, and the gold-silver ratio, oil-gold ratio, copper-gold ratio, and their historical percentile data are pending updates. Therefore, this section cannot provide specific ratio values or percentile judgments.
From a logical framework, the copper-gold ratio is often viewed as a proxy for global growth expectations: if the copper-gold ratio rises, expectations for industrial demand and risk appetite improve; if it falls, safe-haven sentiment or growth concerns intensify. The oil-gold ratio more reflects the relative strength of inflation and energy supply-demand. With SHFE Copper and international copper prices strengthening in tandem, if gold and crude oil data were available over the same period, the direction of risk appetite could be further verified.
In the absence of data, it is recommended to track copper's own price structure and positioning changes as the primary focus, with cross-asset ratios to be supplemented once data is updated. If the copper-gold ratio is subsequently at a mid-to-high historical percentile, copper is relatively strong versus gold, and mean reversion should be watched for; if at a low percentile, copper is relatively weak versus gold, and there is room for repair if growth expectations recover.
V. Sentiment
The data section shows that domestic related headlines over the past 48h (market=CN, asset=COPPER) are N/A, meaning no headline data is available, and the sentiment score and sentiment bias are pending updates. No directional judgment can be made based on media headlines, and no quotes are fabricated.
Observed indirectly from price action, SHFE Copper closed higher on expanded volume on 6月4日, and the international market HG=F rose 1.14% on the same day, with chPos (open interest change percentage) at 88.70%, up from 77.00% on 6月3日 and 82.30% on 6月2日, indicating increased willingness to hold long positions in the international market. If this indicator remains elevated, market sentiment is relatively optimistic; if it falls back quickly, sentiment may turn cautious.
Overall sentiment judgment: neutral given missing data, with price and positioning indicators slightly bullish, but lacking sentiment verification.
VI. Historical Statistical Patterns
The data segment does not provide seasonal historical data for SHFE Copper or same-period statistics over the past 10 years; seasonal patterns are pending update. It is not possible to provide specific statistical values such as the probability of SHFE Copper rising in June or average price change.
From a general empirical framework, copper prices at the end of Q2 and the beginning of Q3 are often affected by grid investment, the peak air-conditioning production season, and supply disruptions at South American mines. However, for the current year specifically, this needs to be verified against inventory, TC/RC, and downstream operating rate data. The current data segment lacks these indicators, so no quantitative conclusion is drawn.
It is recommended to monitor going forward: changes in open interest around the June contract delivery, weekly changes in LME and SHFE inventories, and progress in mine-side processing fee negotiations. If inventories are drawn down and processing fees remain low, support below copper prices will be relatively strong; if inventories accumulate and processing fees rebound, upward pressure will increase.
VII. Long-Short Game Scenario Analysis
Bullish factors:
1. SHFE Copper closed at 78200 CNY/t on June 4, standing above MA5 (77890) and MA20 (77933), with short-term moving averages repairing.
2. Open interest increased from 169462 lots on May 28 to 195214 lots on June 4, an open interest build of approximately 15.2%, with capital inflows.
3. Volume increased from 81917 lots on June 3 to 111379 lots on June 4, with volume-price coordination leaning positive.
4. International market HG=F rose 1.14% on the same day, up 4.75% over 5 days and 2.73% over 20 days, with domestic and international markets resonating.
5. The 20-day low was raised from 77030 CNY/t to 77280 CNY/t, with support below moving higher.
Bearish factors:
1. The closing price of 78200 CNY/t is still about 1.14% below the 20-day high of 79090 CNY/t, with upside resistance unbroken.
2. MA5 (77890) remains slightly below MA20 (77933), and the moving averages have not formed a bullish alignment.
3. International market COT net long positions stood at 65106 lots, a decrease of 17048 lots from the previous period; although long crowding has eased, the position reduction is notable.
4. Domestic related headlines and macro, inventory data are missing, and fundamental verification is insufficient.
5. The June 4 pivot P was 78163.33, and the close was only slightly above the pivot; if S1 (77926.67) is lost, the short-term bias turns weaker.
Short- to medium-term balance of forces: In the short term (1-5 days), bulls have a slight edge due to open interest build with higher volume and domestic-international market synchronization; in the medium term (1-4 weeks), direction depends on whether inventory and macro data can verify the move, and current evidence is insufficient, so a neutral stance is maintained. If the price holds above 79090, the medium-term bias is bullish; if it breaks below 77280, the medium-term bias is bearish.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy One (short-term bullish): Entry reference zone 77900-78200 CNY/t; if the price pulls back and stabilizes near MA20 (77933), a light position may be initiated; stop-loss reference below 77280 CNY/t (20-day low); targets reference 79090 CNY/t (20-day high) and 78436.67 CNY/t (R1) for scaled reductions; horizon 1-5 trading days; position size recommended not to exceed 10%-15% of total capital. If the stop-loss is breached, exit unconditionally.
Strategy Two (range trading: sell high, buy low): If the price rallies and meets resistance near 79090 CNY/t, a short position may be considered, with stop-loss reference above 79500 CNY/t and target back at 77933 CNY/t (MA20); if the price pulls back and stabilizes near 77280 CNY/t, a long position may be considered, with stop-loss reference below 77000 CNY/t and target back at 78200 CNY/t. Horizon 1-5 trading days; position size recommended not to exceed 10% of total capital.
Risk management: Control single-trade risk to 1%-2% of total capital; if ATR (international market 0.0996 USD/lb) continues to expand, stop-losses should be widened accordingly or position size reduced; if open interest falls rapidly or international market net long positions continue to decline substantially, reduce positions or exit. All strategies require dynamic adjustment based on real-time data and do not constitute a certainty commitment.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
The data segment shows that the domestic financial calendar for the next 7 days is N/A, with specific events pending update. Recommended focus: daily SHFE copper warehouse receipt and inventory changes, LME copper inventory and cancelled warrants, COMEX copper positioning report, U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yield trends, and news related to mine-side supply. If data releases deviate significantly from expectations, copper price volatility may amplify.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.