I. Price Action & Technicals
As of June 5, 2025, the SHFE Copper main continuous contract closed at 78,170 CNY/t, down 0.0384% from the previous trading day, with intraday volume of 64,095 lots and open interest of 193,023 lots. Over the past 5 trading sessions, price action has been range-bound: May 29 close at 78,130 CNY/t (+0.1025%), May 30 close at 77,600 CNY/t (-0.5001%), June 3 close at 77,650 CNY/t (-0.1286%), June 4 close at 78,200 CNY/t (+0.5271%), June 5 close at 78,170 CNY/t (-0.0384%).
On the moving average system, the 5-day moving average (MA5) stands at 79,950 CNY/t and the 20-day moving average (MA20) at 79,952 CNY/t; the current close of 78,170 CNY/t sits above both, but the two are nearly converged, indicating a neutral near-term trend. The 20-day high (H20) is 79,090 CNY/t and the 20-day low (L20) is 77,280 CNY/t, placing price in the upper-middle portion of the range. The pivot point (P) is 78,130 CNY/t, first resistance (R1) 78,300 CNY/t, and first support (S1) 78,000 CNY/t; the close is slightly above the pivot but below R1.
On technical indicators, the data does not provide specific RSI, MACD, or ATR readings, but based on the relationship between price and the moving averages, RSI may be in neutral territory (around 50) and MACD may be showing a weak golden cross or convergence; ATR should be referenced from the international market data. The ATR for the international contract HG=F is 0.1043 USD/lb, indicating moderate volatility.
Key levels: to the upside, resistance is layered at 78,300 (R1) and 79,090 (20-day high); to the downside, support is layered at 78,000 (S1), 79,952 (MA20), and 77,280 (20-day low). If price holds above 78,130 (pivot), it may test 78,300; if it breaks below 78,000, it may retrace toward the 79,950 area.
II. Fundamental Drivers
On macro rates and the dollar, the data does not provide recent Fed rate decisions, the dollar index, or inflation data, so a quantitative analysis is not possible. However, international copper prices are denominated in USD, and dollar moves are typically inversely correlated with copper prices. If the dollar weakens, copper prices may find support; if the dollar strengthens, copper prices come under pressure. With current data missing, we await subsequent updates.
On inventories and central bank gold purchases, the data does not provide LME, SHFE, or COMEX copper inventory data, nor central bank gold purchases or ETF holdings changes. Copper's financial attributes are weaker than gold's, but inventory changes directly affect the supply-demand balance. If inventories decline, it is bullish for copper prices; if inventories rise, it is bearish. Data is currently pending update.
On geopolitics, the data does not provide recent geopolitical events, so their impact on copper supply (e.g., mines in Chile, Peru) or demand (e.g., China infrastructure) cannot be assessed. Geopolitical risk typically affects copper prices through supply chain disruptions and risk appetite, and requires ongoing tracking.
On domestic policy, the data does not provide recent Chinese stimulus measures or property data. Copper demand is closely tied to China's macro economy; policy easing would be bullish, while tightening would be bearish. With no data currently available, no judgment can be made.
Overall, the data on fundamental drivers is severely lacking, and no effective analysis can be formed. We recommend monitoring subsequent inventory, macro data, and geopolitical events.
III. Positioning Structure & Capital Flows
On domestic positioning, SHFE Copper main contract open interest (OI) stands at 193,023 lots, down 2,191 lots from 195,214 lots the previous day, indicating a modest outflow of capital. Volume was 64,095 lots, down sharply from 111,379 lots the previous day, reflecting reduced market activity.
The international COT positioning (past 4 weeks) shows the latest reporting period (2026-09-15) with total open interest OI=289,463 lots, longs L=83,704 lots, shorts S=18,598 lots, and net long net=65,106 lots, down 17,048 lots from the prior week. The prior week (2026-09-08) showed net long 82,154 lots, up 9,272 lots; the week before that (2026-09-01) showed net long 72,882 lots, down 3,389 lots; and the week before that (2026-08-25) showed net long 76,271 lots, down 2,377 lots. Net longs have declined for two consecutive weeks, indicating weakening bullish sentiment among speculative capital.
On crowding, net longs as a share of total open interest stand at approximately 22.5% (65,106/289,463), down from 27.6% the prior week, indicating easing crowding. Options and volatility data are not provided, so no analysis is possible.
On capital flows, domestic open interest is declining and international net longs are declining, indicating an overall outflow. If open interest continues to fall, prices may lack upside momentum; if open interest recovers, it may drive a price rebound.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
The data does not provide prices for gold, silver, crude oil, or other assets, so the gold-silver ratio, oil-gold ratio, copper-gold ratio, and their historical percentiles cannot be calculated. Cross-asset relative value analysis is typically used to gauge copper's relative valuation; for example, a rising copper-gold ratio may signal expectations of economic recovery, while a decline may signal risk aversion. With current data missing, no effective analysis can be conducted.
We recommend monitoring subsequent data updates: if the copper-gold ratio is at a historical low, copper may be undervalued relative to gold; if at a high, it may be overvalued. However, this must be judged in conjunction with the macro environment.
V. Sentiment
Over the past 48 hours, relevant domestic headlines (market=CN, asset=COPPER) are N/A, with no news data. Therefore, no sentiment score can be calculated and no headline bias can be analyzed. On the international side, HG=F has risen 5.59% over the past 5 days, which may reflect relatively optimistic overseas sentiment, but there is no news confirmation.
Sentiment monitoring relies on news, social media, and capital flows. With current data insufficient, the sentiment score is pending update. We recommend monitoring subsequent headlines: supply disruption or demand stimulus news could lift sentiment, while a large inventory build or macro headwinds could weigh on sentiment.
VI. Historical Statistics
The data does not provide seasonal patterns or price performance over the same period in the past 10 years, so no analysis is possible. Copper prices typically exhibit seasonal characteristics; for example, the spring construction peak season may boost demand, while the summer off-season may weigh on prices. However, with no data currently available, this cannot be verified.
We recommend supplementing historical data going forward to determine whether the current price deviates from the seasonal mean. If the deviation is excessive, mean reversion is possible.
VII. Bull-Bear Debate
Bullish factors:
1. The international contract HG=F has risen 5.59% over the past 5 days; overseas strength may spill over into the domestic market.
2. The SHFE Copper close of 78,170 CNY/t sits above MA5 (79,950) and MA20 (79,952), with a near-term bullish bias.
3. Net long positioning of 65,106 lots remains at a relatively high level, indicating speculative capital is broadly bullish.
4. Price is above the pivot P (78,130); if it holds, it may test R1 (78,300).
Bearish factors:
1. SHFE Copper edged down 0.0384% on the day, with domestic performance weaker than overseas.
2. Open interest fell 2,191 lots, with capital outflow.
3. Net longs fell 17,048 lots from the prior week, indicating weakening bullish sentiment.
4. The 20-day high of 79,090 CNY/t acts as resistance; failure to break through may lead to a pullback.
Near- to medium-term balance of forces: near-term overseas strength may support the domestic market, but domestic capital outflows and declining net longs cap gains. Over the medium term, macro data and inventory changes warrant attention. If overseas strength persists, the domestic market may catch up; if overseas turns weak, the domestic market may decline.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy One: Range trading. If price retraces toward MA20 (79,952), consider a light long, entry 79,950, stop-loss 77,280 (20-day low), target 79,090 (20-day high), horizon 1-5 days, position size no more than 10%.
Strategy Two: Breakout momentum long. If price effectively breaks above 79,090 (20-day high), consider adding to longs, entry 79,100, stop-loss 78,300 (R1), target 80,000, horizon 1-5 days, position size no more than 15%.
Risk management: strictly enforce stop-losses, avoiding a single-trade loss exceeding 2% of total capital. Monitor positioning changes and external markets; if net longs continue to decline or inventories surge, exit promptly.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
The domestic financial calendar for the next 7 days is N/A, with no known events. We recommend monitoring daily inventory data, positioning reports, and international market price action. Should major data emerge, we will update promptly.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.