I. Price Action & Technicals
The SHFE Silver main continuous contract closed at 8887.00 CNY/kg on June 10, 2025, up 0.6227% from the previous trading day, with a daily volume of 969816 lots and open interest of 465983 lots. Reviewing the past 5 trading days: June 4 closed at 8463.00 CNY (+0.0473%), June 5 closed at 8473.00 CNY (-0.0118%), June 6 surged on heavy volume to 8850.00 CNY (+4.4864%, volume 1310024 lots), June 9 rose further to close at 8909.00 CNY (+1.7706%), and June 10 pulled back slightly to 8887.00 CNY. Using the June 5 close of 8473.00 CNY as the baseline, the cumulative gain through June 10 is approximately 4.89%, with notably strong short-term momentum.
The moving average system shows a bullish alignment: on June 10, MA5 was 8716.40 CNY and MA20 was 8339.70 CNY; the close of 8887.00 CNY was above both MA5 and MA20, and MA5 was above MA20, indicating a bullish medium-term trend. On pivot indicators, the daily pivot P was 8921.67 CNY, first resistance R1 was 8985.33 CNY, and first support S1 was 8823.33 CNY; the close of 8887.00 CNY sat below P and above S1, positioning it in the lower portion of the pivot range. The 20-day high H20 was 9020.00 CNY and the 20-day low L20 was 7944.00 CNY; the current price sits at roughly the 87.8% percentile of the 20-day range (estimated as (8887-7944)/(9020-7944)).
On oscillators, domestic specific readings for RSI, MACD, and ATR are pending update; for reference, the international SI=F ATR is 0.6485 USD, indicating volatility remains elevated. If the price can hold above 8887.00 CNY and break through pivot P (8921.67 CNY), it could probe R1 (8985.33 CNY) and even the 20-day high of 9020.00 CNY; if it breaks below S1 (8823.33 CNY), the next support reference is MA5 (8716.40 CNY), with MA20 (8339.70 CNY) further below. Weekly and monthly timeframe data are pending update, so the daily structure is currently the primary basis for judgment.
II. Fundamental Drivers
On the macro rates and dollar dimension, this report's data section does not provide same-day readings for the dollar index, US Treasury yields, or inflation data; the relevant analytical data are pending update. From the available international comparison, SI=F gained 5.91% over the past 5 days and 12.83% over the past 20 days, indicating that the center of gravity for international silver pricing has shifted markedly higher over the past month, typically corresponding to a macro combination of falling real rates or a weakening dollar, though the specific drivers need confirmation once dollar and rate data are updated.
On the inventory and central bank gold purchases dimension, the data section does not provide SHFE silver inventories, LBMA inventories, or central bank gold purchase data; inventory and official sector demand data are pending update. It should be noted that silver's monetary attributes are weaker than gold's, so the direct transmission from central bank gold purchases to silver is limited and is reflected more indirectly through the gold-silver ratio.
On the ETF and investment demand dimension, the data section does not provide changes in global silver ETF holdings; ETF flow data are pending update. From domestic futures positioning, open interest on June 10 was 465983 lots, down 25403 lots from 491386 lots on June 9 and down 15061 lots from 481044 lots on June 6; the combination of rising prices and falling open interest suggests this rally was driven more by short-term funds and short covering rather than sustained incremental allocation inflows.
On the geopolitical dimension, the data section does not provide domestic related headlines over the past 48 hours (market=CN, asset=SILVER is N/A); geopolitical and sentiment event data are pending update. Overall, the currently verifiable hard fundamental data are concentrated in prices and positioning, while the evidence chain on the macro and inventory fronts remains incomplete. If subsequent dollar and rate data confirm an easing direction, the bullish silver logic could be reinforced; if macro data move in the opposite direction, the current gains face retracement pressure.
III. Positioning Structure & Capital Flows
On domestic positioning, SHFE Silver main contract open interest rose from 378282 lots on June 5 to 481044 lots on June 6, then further to 491386 lots on June 9, before falling back to 465983 lots on June 10. The June 6 heavy-volume rally saw volume of 1310024 lots and an open interest increase of more than 100,000 lots, a classic open interest build breakout; however, open interest declined on both June 9 and June 10, falling by a combined roughly 25403 lots, indicating that some longs took profits near 8900 CNY and the capital impetus is weakening at the margin.
On international COT positioning, the most recent four periods of non-commercial positioning provided in the data section are: 2026-08-25 OI=113801, long 20205, short 7081, net long 13124 (Δ+2378); 2026-09-01 OI=104362, long 19156, short 6558, net long 12598 (Δ-1475); 2026-09-08 OI=103250, long 21148, short 6762, net long 14386 (Δ+1788); 2026-09-15 OI=103745, long 20205, short 7081, net long 13124 (Δ-1262). The latest period shows a net long of 13124 lots, down 1262 lots from the prior period, with total open interest of 103745 lots edging slightly higher. Note that the COT date convention is inconsistent with the report date and is for structural reference only.
On crowding, the international chPos (position change location indicator) was 96.90% on June 10, 100.00% on June 9, 92.60% on June 6, 91.80% on June 5, and 90.60% on June 4, remaining persistently elevated, which signals that long positioning is relatively crowded and that if prices stall there is retracement risk from long liquidation. Options and volatility data are pending update.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
On the gold-silver ratio, the data section does not provide the same-day closing price for gold (SHFE.AU or COMEX gold); the gold-silver ratio and its historical percentile data are pending update. Logically, if silver's 20-day gain (SI=F 20D at 12.83%) continues to outpace gold's, the gold-silver ratio tends to converge, indicating that silver's catch-up attribute relative to gold has been activated; conversely, if gold is stronger, the gold-silver ratio widens and silver's relative valuation is low.
On the oil-gold ratio, the data section does not provide crude oil prices; the oil-gold ratio and its percentile data are pending update. The oil-gold ratio typically reflects the relative strength of inflation expectations versus industrial demand expectations and has indirect indicative significance for the pricing of silver's industrial attributes.
On the copper-gold ratio, the data section does not provide copper prices; the copper-gold ratio and its percentile data are pending update. The copper-gold ratio is a classic ratio for gauging growth expectations versus safe-haven demand; silver possesses both precious metal and industrial metal attributes, and a strengthening copper-gold ratio is typically relatively favorable for silver.
Overall, the verifiable cross-asset data in this report are missing, and the relative value analysis cannot yet produce quantitative conclusions. If gold, crude oil, and copper closing data are subsequently filled in, the gold-silver ratio, oil-gold ratio, and copper-gold ratio and their 5-year percentiles can be calculated to judge silver's relative valuation position within a cross-asset framework. At present, one can only infer from SI=F's 20-day gain of 12.83% that silver's own momentum is strong, but relative strength cannot be verified.
V. Sentiment
On the sentiment score, the data section does not provide quantitative sentiment indicators; sentiment score data are pending update. Domestic related headlines over the past 48 hours (market=CN, asset=SILVER) returned N/A, meaning no usable headline sample is available and the sentiment bias cannot be quantitatively assessed.
Inferring indirectly from price behavior, the single-day gain of 4.4864% on June 6 combined with volume of 1310024 lots constituted a session of concentrated sentiment release; June 9 extended the rally by 1.7706% but volume fell to 802831 lots, and on June 10 the gain narrowed to 0.6227% with volume of 969816 lots and declining open interest; the volume-price structure shows sentiment shifting from euphoria to watchfulness. International SI=F fell 0.40% on June 10, a slight divergence from the domestic gain of 0.62%, suggesting that domestic and international sentiment are not synchronized. If domestic headlines resume updates with a bullish bias, the sentiment side could provide support for prices; if headlines turn bearish or remain absent, the marginal contribution of sentiment to prices will be limited.
VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality
On seasonality, the data section does not provide the past 10 years of monthly return series for SHFE Silver or international silver; the seasonal statistics for June and Q3 are pending update. From general commodity patterns, silver often exhibits amplified volatility between the summer industrial off-season and the autumn restocking season, but this judgment lacks support from this data section and is not treated as a quantitative conclusion.
On performance over the same period in the past 10 years, data are pending update. The verifiable recent statistics are: SI=F gained 5.91% over the past 5 days and 12.83% over the past 20 days; the domestic main contract rose approximately 4.89% cumulatively from the June 5 close of 8473.00 CNY to the June 10 close of 8887.00 CNY, placing short-term momentum in a relatively strong range. Historical volatility, the distribution of consecutive up days, and forward return statistics for 5 days/10 days after large rallies are all pending update due to missing data.
VII. Long-Short Game Analysis
Bullish arguments: First, the moving averages are in a bullish alignment, with the June 10 close of 8887.00 CNY above MA5 (8716.40 CNY) and MA20 (8339.70 CNY), confirming an upward medium-term trend; second, the international market SI=F has risen 12.83% over the past 20 days, with strong momentum in the overseas market providing a pull for the domestic market; third, the June 6 breakout on elevated volume and open interest build, with turnover of 1310024 lots and open interest rising to 481044 lots, indicates the breakout was supported by volume; fourth, the price is approaching the 20-day high of 9020.00 CNY, and a valid breakout would open up further upside space.
Bearish arguments: First, open interest fell to 465983 lots on June 10, down 25403 lots from June 9, with price rising while open interest declined, indicating insufficient follow-through from longs; second, the international market chPos has remained at elevated levels between 90.60% and 100.00%, suggesting long crowding is relatively high and posing a risk of a stampede; third, the latest COT net long of 13124 lots decreased by 1262 lots from the previous period, indicating marginal position reduction; fourth, the international market SI=F closed down 0.40% on June 10, showing divergence between domestic and overseas markets, and the domestic close of 8887.00 CNY is below the pivot P (8921.67 CNY), indicating weakening short-term momentum.
Short-to-medium-term balance of power: In the short term (1-5 days), bullish and bearish forces are tending toward equilibrium with a slight bearish tilt, due to the decline in open interest and domestic-overseas divergence; in the medium term (1-4 weeks), the bias remains bullish, supported by the moving average alignment and the 20-day gain. If the price holds S1 (8823.33 CNY), a retest of 9020.00 CNY remains likely after short-term consolidation; if S1 is breached and the price falls below MA5 (8716.40 CNY), the medium-term bullish structure will face a test, and the probability of a pullback to MA20 (8339.70 CNY) rises.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy One (light long on pullback): Entry reference near 8823.33 CNY (S1), stop-loss reference below 8716.40 CNY (MA5), target reference 8985.33 CNY (R1), horizon 1-5 days, position size recommended not to exceed 15% of total capital, confidence level 6. If the price falls below MA5, exit on the stop-loss and do not add to positions against the trend.
Strategy Two (range short at highs): Entry reference in the 8985.33 CNY (R1) to 9020.00 CNY (H20) range, stop-loss reference above 9060 CNY (approximately 0.4% above the 20-day high), target reference 8823.33 CNY (S1), horizon 1-5 days, position size recommended not to exceed 10% of total capital, confidence level 5. This strategy targets a stalling pullback against the backdrop of elevated long crowding (chPos 96.90%); if the price breaks above 9020.00 CNY on elevated volume, exit on the stop-loss.
Risk management: Control single-trade risk within 1.5% of total capital; monitor whether open interest can recover above 491386 lots to confirm the return of longs; if the international market SI=F falls below 36.4806 (S1), domestic long positions should be reduced. All strategies are executed on an if...then... scenario basis and do not constitute a certainty commitment.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
Domestic financial calendar data for the next 7 days is pending update (data segment returns N/A). Potential events to track closely include: daily updates of the US Dollar Index and US Treasury yields, changes in global silver ETF holdings, weekly SHFE silver inventory data, and the next release of international market COT positioning. The specific dates and expected values for the above events are pending update; it is recommended to refer to exchange and official releases.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.