I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
As of 2025-06-10, the Rebar main continuous contract closed at 2974.00, down 0.0672% from the previous trading day, declining for two consecutive trading days, though the decline narrowed significantly. The past five trading sessions showed a pattern of “rally first, then pullback, then consolidation”: on June 4, it rose 1.5710% on higher volume to 2974.00; on June 5, it edged up 0.1354% to 2959.00; on June 6, it rebounded 0.5747% to 2975.00; on June 9, it pulled back 0.0335% to 2981.00; and on June 10, it fell another 0.0672% to 2974.00. Overall, the price fluctuated within a narrow range of 2959–2981, with weak directional conviction.
On the moving average system, the MA5 on June 10 was 2972.60, with the closing price of 2974.00 slightly above the MA5, indicating neutral short-term momentum; however, the MA20 was 3018.95, with the price still below the medium-term moving average by approximately 44.95 points, leaving medium-term downside pressure intact. The 20-day high H20 was 3133.00 and the low L20 was 2912.00, placing the current price in the lower-middle portion of this range, with 159 points of room to the high and 62 points to the low.
On technical indicators, since the data only provides prices and moving averages, specific values for RSI, MACD, ATR, etc. are pending updates. However, inferring from the relationship between price and moving averages, RSI may be in the neutral-to-weak 40–50 zone, MACD remains below the zero line but the green bars may be narrowing, and ATR is trending lower due to the recent narrowing of price swings.
On pivot points, the June 10 pivot P=2973.00, first resistance R1=2989.00, and first support S1=2958.00. The closing price of 2974.00 is slightly above P but below R1, indicating the market is in a weak equilibrium state. If the price can hold above P and break upward through R1, it may test the MA20 (3018.95); if it breaks below S1, it may probe lower toward L20 (2912.00). On volume, June 10 turnover was 1,456,363 lots, significantly shrinking from 2,066,104 lots on June 4, while open interest fell from 2,280,389 lots to 2,165,234 lots, declining for five consecutive days, with capital continuing to exit and a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the market.
II. Fundamental Drivers
At the macro level, there is currently a lack of the latest updates on interest rates, the dollar index, inflation, and other data. The domestic economic calendar shows no important events scheduled over the next 7 days, placing the market in a data vacuum period. Based on known information, Rebar, as a domestically priced product, is mainly affected by domestic property and infrastructure demand and steel mill production rhythms, but specific inventory, output, apparent consumption, and other data are pending updates.
On the inventory front, the data does not provide the latest mill inventory and social inventory figures, making it impossible to judge destocking or restocking trends. If subsequent data shows inventories continuing to decline, it may provide support for prices; if inventories accumulate, pressure will intensify.
Factors such as central bank gold purchases, ETFs, and geopolitics have limited direct impact on Rebar, transmitting more indirectly through macro sentiment and risk appetite. There are currently no related headline news items, and market sentiment is stable.
Overall, fundamentals lack fresh drivers, and prices are more dominated by technicals and capital flows. In the absence of major macro or industrial policy announcements, Rebar may maintain a range-bound pattern in the short term.
III. Positioning Structure & Capital Flows
On open interest, total open interest on June 10 was 2,165,234 lots, down 115,155 lots from 2,280,389 lots on June 4, a decline of about 5.05%, falling for five consecutive days. Turnover also shrank in tandem, with June 10 turnover of 1,456,363 lots, down 609,741 lots from June 4, a decline of about 29.5%. The simultaneous decline in volume and open interest indicates reduced market participation, with both bulls and bears lacking willingness to enter, and capital showing a net outflow trend.
Since the data does not provide COT classified positioning, options open interest, or volatility data, it is impossible to judge specific changes in speculative funds and commercial positions. However, from the continuous decline in total open interest, it can be inferred that some capital has chosen to exit and wait on the sidelines, market crowding has decreased, and the probability of a one-sided move in the short term has fallen.
If open interest subsequently stops falling and rebounds, accompanied by prices breaking through key levels, it may attract incremental capital to enter and drive trend formation. Conversely, if open interest continues to decline, prices may remain in a narrow range.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value Analysis
The data does not provide cross-asset ratio data such as the gold-silver ratio, oil-gold ratio, or copper-gold ratio, and related analysis is pending updates. As a ferrous complex product, Rebar typically has some linkage with industrial commodities such as copper and crude oil, but with specific ratio values currently unavailable, percentile judgments cannot be made.
From historical experience, the Rebar-to-copper ratio can reflect the relative strength of property versus manufacturing demand, while the ratio to crude oil reflects the interplay between energy costs and industrial demand. If subsequent data becomes available, further analysis can be conducted.
V. Sentiment Monitoring
Domestic related headlines over the past 48 hours show as N/A, with no news sentiment data. The market sentiment score cannot be quantified, but judging from narrow price fluctuations and the simultaneous decline in volume and open interest, sentiment is overall neutral to cautious. Lacking headline guidance, the market relies more on technical trading.
If subsequent news such as environmental production restrictions or property policies emerges, it may trigger sentiment swings. At present, it is advisable to closely monitor policy and industry developments.
VI. Historical Statistical Patterns
The data does not provide seasonal patterns or price data for the same period over the past 10 years, and historical statistical patterns are pending updates. From general experience, June is the traditional off-season for Rebar consumption, with the southern plum rain season affecting construction, demand often weakening month-on-month, and prices tending to come under pressure. However, this year's specific situation needs to be judged in conjunction with inventory and output data.
If historical same-period data can be obtained subsequently, seasonal characteristics can be further analyzed. At present, no quantitative conclusion can be given.
VII. Bull-Bear Game Scenario Analysis
Bullish factors: 1) The price holds above the MA5 (2972.60) and pivot P (2973.00), with short-term support effective; 2) The June 4 rally of 1.5710% on higher volume shows buying interest below; 3) Open interest continues to decline, and short covering may drive a price rebound; 4) If inventories are subsequently destocked or policy tailwinds emerge, confidence may be boosted.
Bearish factors: 1) The price remains below the MA20 (3018.95), with a bearish medium-term trend; 2) Open interest has declined for five consecutive days, and capital exit is unfavorable for gains; 3) Turnover is shrinking, and the rebound lacks momentum; 4) The 20-day high of 3133.00 provides clear resistance, limiting upside room.
Short-to-medium-term balance of forces: In the short term, bulls and bears are deadlocked in the 2973–2989 range; if R1 (2989.00) is broken, bulls gain the upper hand, while if S1 (2958.00) is broken, bears gain the upper hand. In the medium term, MA20 suppression remains unchanged, and bears still hold a slight advantage.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy One: Range trading — sell high, buy low. If the price rebounds and meets resistance near R1 (2989.00), a light short position may be attempted, with a stop-loss set above 2995.00, targeting S1 (2958.00) or L20 (2912.00), with a 1–5 day horizon and position size not exceeding 10%. If the price falls and stabilizes near S1 (2958.00), a light long position may be attempted, with a stop-loss set below 2950.00, targeting R1 (2989.00) or the MA20 (3018.95), with a 1–5 day horizon and position size not exceeding 10%.
Strategy Two: Breakout following. If the price breaks above R1 (2989.00) on higher volume and holds, a light long position may be added, with a stop-loss set below 2975.00, targeting the MA20 (3018.95), with a 1–5 day horizon and position size not exceeding 15%. If the price breaks below S1 (2958.00) on higher volume, a light short position may be added, with a stop-loss set above 2970.00, targeting L20 (2912.00), with a 1–5 day horizon and position size not exceeding 15%.
Risk management: Strictly set stop-losses, with single-trade losses not exceeding 2% of total capital. Monitor changes in open interest and turnover; if volume and open interest continue to shrink, reduce position size. Avoid heavy positions during data vacuum periods.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
The domestic economic calendar for the next 7 days shows as N/A, with no important data releases. It is advisable to monitor daily spot transactions, inventory changes, and steel mill operating rates, as well as any unexpected policy news. If data is updated, strategies will be adjusted promptly.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.