I. Price Action & Technicals
As of the data available on 2026-09-21, the latest close for the SHFE Copper main continuous contract was 109620 CNY/t on 2026-09-18, up 1.3967% on the day, with volume of 81021 lots and open interest of 151880 lots. The pivot P is 109540, R1 is 109930, and S1 is 109230. The prior three trading sessions (09-16, 09-17, 09-18) closed higher consecutively at 107740, 108500, and 109620, respectively, for a cumulative gain of about 1.75%, forming a short-term rebound structure.
On the moving average system, the 09-18 MA5 was 108146 and MA20 was 108921. The close of 109620 was above both MA5 and MA20, marking the first dual-line crossover in the past 5 days, with short-term moving averages turning upward. However, note that MA5 remains below MA20, and the moving averages have yet to form a bullish alignment, so trend confirmation still requires time. The 20-day high H20 is 112330 and the 20-day low L20 is 106650. The current price sits in the upper-middle portion of the 20-day range, about 2.47% from the high and about 2.79% from the low.
On oscillators, the data does not directly provide RSI and MACD values; data pending update. However, given the pattern of three consecutive higher closes with accelerating gains (0.7575%, 0.9960%, 1.3967%), short-term momentum is on the stronger side. On ATR, the international contract HG=F has an ATR of 0.1325 USD/lb, for reference on the volatility range.
Key level assessment: the first resistance above is R1 at 109930, and a breakout would target the 20-day high of 112330; the first support below is the pivot P at 109540, and a loss of that level would target S1 at 109230, with further support at MA5 108146 and the 20-day low of 106650. If the price holds above 109540, the short-term bullish setup continues; if it breaks below 108146, the rebound structure is broken and a retest of 106650 is possible.
On the weekly and monthly dimensions, the data does not provide specific weekly K or monthly K values; data pending update. However, given the width of the 20-day range of 106650-112330, monthly volatility is at a medium level. Vol20 is 26.2055%, DD20d is 6.9597%, and DD52w is 13.4888%, indicating that medium-term drawdown is controllable but short-term volatility is increasing.
II. Fundamental Drivers
On macro rates, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield ^TNX was last at 4.9980%, up 1.03% from the prior reading, approaching the 5% threshold. Elevated rates weigh on the valuation of non-yielding assets and industrial metals, but copper, as a predominantly industrial commodity, is less rate-sensitive than precious metals. The dollar index DX-Y.NYB was 100.2540, up 0.03%, with the dollar stabilizing above 100, posing a neutral-to-bearish disturbance for USD-denominated copper prices.
On inventories, LME warehouse stocks were 255100 t on 2026-09-18 and 255900 t on 2026-09-17, a cumulative decline of 800 t over two days, a moderate pace of destocking. SHFE warrants were 26655 t on 2026-09-18, a weekly change of -4745 t, a clear drawdown in domestic warrants that provides some support for the domestic market. COMEX registered stocks were 432092.22 t on 2026-09-17, an elevated absolute level that poses potential pressure on the international market. Inventories across the three major exchanges are divergent, with the domestic market relatively tight and the overseas market relatively loose.
On the term structure, the international contract is in CONTANGO, with M1-M2 at -0.0345 (-0.5181%), RY at -6.2167%, and slope at 0.0327. The near month trades at a discount to the far month, reflecting relatively ample near-term spot supply, but the slope is flat and the contradiction is not acute.
On geopolitics and supply, international headlines over the past 48h show rising attacks on mining operations in Pakistan (Mining_Copper, 2026-09-20), and supply-side disruption risk remains. Domestically, headlines over the past 48h are mainly on nickel, strip steel and other products, with limited news directly related to copper; data pending update. ETF positioning data was not provided; data pending update. Central bank gold purchase data was not provided; data pending update.
Overall, elevated macro rates and a stabilizing dollar constitute upside suppression, while domestic destocking and supply disruptions provide downside support. Fundamentals are mixed, lacking a one-sided driver.
III. Positioning and Fund Flows
COT positioning (international contract comparison) shows that on 2026-09-15 total open interest OI was 289463 lots, longs L were 83704 lots, shorts S were 18598 lots, and net long net was 65106 lots, a change Δ of -17048 lots from the prior week. Compared with the net long of 82154 lots on 2026-09-08 (Δ+9272), net longs fell sharply this week, with significant long liquidation.
Looking at the four-week sequence, net long was 76271 lots on 08-25, 72882 lots on 09-01, 82154 lots on 09-08, and 65106 lots on 09-15. Net longs peaked on 09-08 and then fell rapidly, with clear signs of capital outflow.
On crowding, the 2026-09-15 netPct was 22.4920%, crowd was 63.36, CTA was 98.00, and hedge was 58.2658%. Compared with 09-08's netPct of 27.6156% and crowd of 69.39, both the net long share and crowding fell, indicating that the long trade is no longer crowded, but the CTA reading remains at a high of 98.00, with trend-following capital still leaning long.
On domestic positioning, SHFE Copper main continuous open interest fell from 187828 lots on 09-14 to 151880 lots on 09-18, a cumulative decrease of 35948 lots over five trading days. The sizable position reduction diverges from the price rise, suggesting this rebound was driven more by short covering than by fresh long entry.
On options and volatility, ^VIX was 14.8100, down 4.08% (2026-09-19), with market panic sentiment low. Copper option IV data was not provided; data pending update. VaR95 was -2.9712% and Sharpe30 was -0.2841, with risk-adjusted returns on the weaker side.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
On the copper-gold ratio, HG_GC_RATIO was 0.0015, with a 1-year percentile P1Y of 72.62% and a 3-year percentile P3Y of 34.52%. The copper-gold ratio is at a high percentile on the 1-year dimension but low on the 3-year dimension, indicating that copper has outperformed gold over the past year, but over a longer horizon it remains at a low level, and the premium of the industrial attribute relative to the safe-haven attribute has yet to fully recover.
Silver-gold ratio and oil-gold ratio data were not provided; data pending update.
On asset linkages, the dollar index at 100.2540 and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.9980% are both on the stronger side, which in theory weighs on copper prices, yet copper has rebounded recently, indicating that copper prices are driven more by its own supply-demand and inventory drawdown. HG=F gained 6.11% over 5 days and 2.09% over 20 days, while the dollar rose 0.03% over the same period, so the short-term negative correlation between copper prices and the dollar has weakened.
On the SHFE/LME ratio, with SHFE Copper at 109620 CNY/t and HG=F at 6.7170 USD/lb, and with FX data not provided; data pending update, an accurate internal-external price ratio cannot be calculated. However, in terms of percentage changes, HG=F rose 1.54% on 09-20 and SHFE Copper rose 1.3967% on 09-18, with both internal and external markets strengthening in tandem and the international market slightly stronger.
If the copper-gold ratio continues to recover, it implies improving market expectations for industrial demand; if it falls back, safe-haven sentiment is rising. The current level of 0.0015 sits at the 72.62% percentile on a 1-year basis, and further upside requires demand-side confirmation.
V. Sentiment
On the sentiment score, the data does not provide a direct sentiment indicator; data pending update. Inferring from available information, ^VIX at 14.8100 (-4.08%) indicates overall market risk appetite is neutral-to-high.
Domestic headlines over the past 48h are mainly on nickel, strip steel, graphite and other products, with limited direct copper coverage and low sentiment heat. Among international headlines, the Pakistan mining attack (Mining_Copper, 2026-09-20) is a supply-side disruption and a bullish sentiment influence; the rebound in brass billet imports month-on-month (SMM_EN, 2026-09-20) indicates a stable East Asian supply landscape, a neutral sentiment.
Overall sentiment bias: neutral-to-bullish, but lacking a strong driving event.
VI. Historical Statistics
On seasonality, late September to October is the traditional peak season for domestic copper consumption (power grid, home appliances, construction), and the probability of sequential demand improvement in the same period historically is on the higher side. However, the data does not provide specific gain/loss statistics for the same period over the past 10 years; data pending update.
From an inventory seasonality perspective, the SHFE warrant weekly decline of 4745 t is consistent with peak-season destocking characteristics. LME inventories of 255100 t are at a neutral absolute level.
On volatility seasonality, Vol20 is 26.2055%, at a medium level, and historically volatility in September-October tends to rise due to macro events (Fed meetings, domestic policy).
VII. Long-Short Game Analysis
Bullish logic: 1) SHFE Copper closed higher for three consecutive sessions, settling at 109620 on 09-18 and reclaiming both MA5 (108146) and MA20 (108921), with short-term moving average support holding; 2) SHFE warrants fell 4745 tonnes week-on-week to 26655 tonnes, domestic destocking continues, and spot supply remains tight; 3) HG=F rose 6.11% over 5 days, with strength in the international market driving the domestic market; 4) Mining attacks in Pakistan are on the rise, with supply-side disruption risk supporting prices; 5) The copper-gold ratio sits at the 72.62% 1-year percentile, with the industrial attribute premium repairing.
Bearish logic: 1) COT net long positions at 65106 lots, down 17048 lots week-on-week, indicating an outflow of long capital; 2) SHFE Copper open interest fell for a fifth consecutive session to 151880 lots, with prices rising while open interest declines, casting doubt on the sustainability of the rebound; 3) The dollar index stabilized at 100.2540, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.9980% is approaching 5%, a macro headwind; 4) COMEX registered inventory at 432092.22 tonnes is elevated, indicating ample overseas supply; 5) The term structure is in CONTANGO, with nearby contracts at a discount, a signal of loose spot supply; 6) The 20-day high of 112330 has not been breached, with clear upside resistance.
Short- to medium-term balance of forces: In the short term (1-5 days), bulls hold the advantage, supported by rebound momentum and destocking; in the medium term (1-4 weeks), the balance is neutral-to-bearish, with positioning divergence and macro headwinds constraining upside room. If prices hold above 109540, the short-term target is 112330; if prices break below 108146, the medium-term target is 106650.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy One (short-term long): Enter near 109540 (pivot P), stop-loss at 108146 (MA5), target 112330 (20-day high), horizon 1-5 days, position size no more than 20%, conviction 6. Exit if price breaks below 108146.
Strategy Two (medium-term short): Enter near 112330 (20-day high), stop-loss at 113500, target 106650 (20-day low), horizon 1-4 weeks, position size no more than 15%, conviction 5. Stop out if price breaks above 113500.
Risk management: Keep single-trade risk within 2% of total capital; VaR95 is -2.9712%, so sufficient margin must be reserved. ATR of 0.1325 USD/lb corresponds to volatility, and stop-loss settings need to cover 1.5x ATR. If macro events (Federal Reserve, domestic policy) materialize, reassessment is required.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
2026-09-23 03:15 France Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR/MEDIUM); 03:15 France Flash Services PMI; 03:30 Germany Flash Manufacturing PMI; 03:30 Germany Flash Services PMI; 04:30 UK Flash Manufacturing PMI; 04:30 UK Flash Services PMI. Other copper-directly-related inventory and positioning data are pending updates.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.