I. Price Action & Technical Analysis
As of the 2026-09-23 close, the SHFE Gold main continuous contract settled at 939.5 CNY/g, down 0.08% on the day, with volume of 122,113 lots and open interest of 212,832 lots. The past 5 trading sessions displayed a “spike-and-fade, center of gravity drifting lower” pattern: the September 18 close of 951.38 CNY/g (+1.51%) marked the range high, followed by September 21 at 942.9 CNY/g (-0.35%), September 22 at 935.78 CNY/g (-1.05%), and September 23 at 939.5 CNY/g (-0.08%), with price oscillating in the 935–951 CNY/g band.
The moving-average system is in a bearish alignment: on September 23, MA5 stood at 940.91 CNY/g and MA20 at 952.61 CNY/g; the close of 939.5 CNY/g sat below both MA5 and MA20, with MA5 below MA20, as the short-term average crossed below the medium-term average, pointing to a weak trend. The 20-day high of 1005.3 CNY/g and 20-day low of 923.3 CNY/g form a wide box of roughly 82 CNY/g, with the current price positioned about 1.8% above the lower edge of the box.
Pivots and key levels: the September 23 pivot P was 939.99 CNY/g, first resistance R1 at 944.27 CNY/g, and first support S1 at 935.21 CNY/g. The close of 939.5 CNY/g was slightly below pivot P, placing price in a neutral-to-weak zone. If price holds above R1 (944.27), a retracement toward MA20 (952.61) is likely; if it breaks below S1 (935.21), watch the validity of support at the 20-day low of 923.3 CNY/g.
International comparison: GC=F settled at 4,281.3 USD/oz on 2026-09-23, down 1.33%, with a 5-day cumulative decline of 1.68% and a 20-day cumulative decline of 8.11%; ATR stood at 104.69, indicating a large average daily range. The international pivot P was 4,344.9, R1 at 4,376.5, and S1 at 4,282.3; the close of 4,281.3 was slightly below S1, a clear short-term weak signature. SHFE Gold, owing to RMB denomination and the onshore-offshore spread, declined less than the international market, showing a degree of resilience.
ATR is elevated (104.69 on the international market), flagging rising volatility risk and the need to widen stop-loss settings accordingly.
II. Fundamental Drivers
Macro rates and the dollar: as of 2026-09-23, the US 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) stood at 5.11%, up 3.04% on the day; the US Dollar Index (DXY) stood at 101.12, up 0.68% on the day. Rates and the dollar strengthened in tandem, applying a double squeeze to dollar-denominated gold. Rising real rates mean a higher opportunity cost of holding gold, and this is the core macro driver behind the recent gold pullback.
That said, looking at the US Treasury curve, the rise in long-end yields reflects market concerns over sticky inflation or fiscal supply pressure, which is a potential medium- to long-term support for gold, though it is under short-term pressure from rising real rates.
Inventories and central bank buying: SHFE Gold inventory (warrant) stood at 114,831 kg as of 2026-09-23, unchanged on the week and flat for several consecutive days, indicating steady Chinese physical delivery demand.
Geopolitical factors: over the past 48h, international headlines showed the market watching new developments in the US-Iran situation (ForexLive_Commodities, 2026-09-23), with geopolitical uncertainty providing intermittent safe-haven support for gold. At the same time, extreme bullish views such as “$10,000 Gold: A question of when, not if” (SMM_EN, 2026-09-23) appeared, reflecting divided market sentiment.
Term structure: the international market shows a CONTANGO structure, with M1-M2 at -16.2 (-0.37%), RY at -4.48%, and slope at 12.38. A deferred-month premium structure typically reflects carry costs and market expectations for forward supply-demand; the current structure offers limited support to near-month prices.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows
COT positioning (international comparison): as of 2026-09-15, non-commercial longs were 142,394 lots and shorts 9,278 lots, for a net long of 133,116 lots, a change of -1,856 lots from the prior week. Reviewing the past 4 weeks: August 25 net long 144,747 lots (Δ+3,099), September 1 net long 136,771 lots (Δ-7,976), September 8 net long 134,972 lots (Δ-1,799), September 15 net long 133,116 lots (Δ-1,856). Net longs fell for three consecutive weeks, a cumulative decline of 11,631 lots, indicating continued de-risking by long-side funds.
Crowding indicators: as of 2026-09-15, net long share (netPct) was 32.48%, crowding (crowd) was 92.58, CTA positioning 62, and hedging positioning 14.85%. A crowding reading of 92.58 is extremely high (close to 100), meaning long positioning is highly crowded and a downside move could trigger stampede-style liquidation. Comparing the past 4 weeks: crowd was 92.02 on August 25, 92.03 on September 1, 92.2 on September 8, and 92.58 on September 15 — crowding climbed steadily while net longs fell steadily, forming a “declining volume, rising crowding” divergence, a bearish risk signal.
Options and volatility: the CBOE Gold Volatility Index (^GVZ) stood at 22.77 as of 2026-09-23, down 2.61%; VIX stood at 15.18, up 2.08%. GVZ above VIX indicates gold market volatility is higher than equities, and option implied volatility is at a moderately elevated level, warranting caution on option-selling strategies.
China positioning: SHFE Gold main contract open interest was 212,832 lots (2026-09-23), up 28,327 lots from 184,505 lots on September 17. Open interest rose during the price pullback, indicating greater long-short divergence and new money entering to trade the range.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
Gold-silver ratio (GC_SI_RATIO): current value 65.77, 49.6th percentile over the past 1 year, 16.53rd percentile over the past 3 years. The gold-silver ratio sits at a 3-year low, meaning silver is relatively strong versus gold, or gold is relatively expensive versus silver. From a mean-reversion standpoint, the ratio at the 16.53rd percentile over 3 years is below the median; on reversion, silver could continue to outperform gold, or gold could catch down.
Copper-gold ratio (HG_GC_RATIO): current value 0.0016, 91.67th percentile over the past 1 year, 47.62nd percentile over the past 3 years. The copper-gold ratio sits at an extremely high 1-year percentile, meaning copper is strong versus gold, or gold is weak versus copper. The 3-year percentile of 47.62% is neutral, suggesting the short-term elevated copper-gold ratio may not be sustainable; on reversion, gold has room to repair versus copper.
Oil-gold ratio (CL_GC_RATIO): current value 0.0207, 76.19th percentile over the past 1 year, 39.95th percentile over the past 3 years. The oil-gold ratio sits at an elevated 1-year percentile and a neutral-to-low 3-year percentile, with crude relatively neutral-to-strong versus gold.
Composite relative-value signal: gold is weak versus copper (copper-gold ratio at the 91.67th 1-year percentile), expensive versus silver (gold-silver ratio at the 16.53rd 3-year percentile), and neutral versus crude. Cross-asset relative value does not give a strong outright gold signal, but the high copper-gold percentile flags potential ratio repair for gold versus industrial metals.
V. Sentiment
China headlines: over the past 48h there was only 1 China-related headline — “4315 floor plus 4390 ceiling! Spot gold rebound ≠ reversal” (Sina_Futures, 2026-09-23 13:13:25). The headline leans cautious, stressing that the rebound is not a reversal, consistent with the currently weak technical picture.
International headlines: over the past 48h there were 4 international-related headlines, leaning divided: “Ex-Gold Fields CEO targets $1B Africa critical minerals fund” (Mining_Copper, 2026-09-23) neutral; “$10,000 Gold: A question of when, not if” (SMM_EN, 2026-09-23) extremely bullish; “Gold falls back to the major $4,300 support ahead of key US data” (ForexLive_Commodities, 2026-09-23) bearish; “Gold edges up or goes nowhere? Headlines clash as rates and oil pull in opposite ways” (ForexLive_Commodities, 2026-09-23) neutral.
Sentiment score: combining cautious China sentiment and divided international sentiment, the sentiment score is about 45/100 (neutral-to-bearish). Public opinion shows no consensus bullish or bearish view, with the market in a wait-and-see state ahead of key US data.
VI. Historical Statistical Patterns
Seasonality: From late September to early October, historical data shows that gold is often supported by Indian wedding-season and pre-National Day stocking demand in China, but this effect has weakened in recent years.
Volatility patterns: The international market ATR is 104.69, and 20-day volatility (Vol20) is 20.06%, at a relatively high level. Historical experience shows that prices are prone to overshooting in high-volatility environments, and stop-loss settings need to account for ATR multiples.
Risk indicators: DD52w is 25.06%, DD20d is 6.9%, Sharpe30 is -0.3882, and VaR95 is -2.85%. Sharpe30 is negative, indicating negative risk-adjusted returns over the past 30 days, and trend strategies have performed poorly recently.
VII. Long-Short Game Scenario Analysis
Bullish arguments:
1. SHFE Gold closed at 939.5 CNY/g, above the 20-day low of 923.3 CNY/g, and support at the lower edge of the box range remains valid;
2. China's SHFE Gold decline was smaller than the international market (0.08% vs 1.33%), with the domestic-international price spread providing a buffer;
3. Geopolitical uncertainty (US-Iran situation) provides intermittent safe-haven demand;
4. The copper-gold ratio is at the 91.67% percentile over the past year, leaving room for gold to repair its relative value versus copper;
5. SHFE inventory weekly change is 0, with no selling pressure on the spot side.
Bearish arguments:
1. The close of 939.5 CNY/g is below MA5 (940.91) and MA20 (952.61), with moving averages in a bearish alignment;
2. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 3.04% to 5.11%, and the US dollar index rose 0.68% to 101.12, a double macro headwind;
3. COT net longs fell for three consecutive weeks (cumulative -11,631 lots), crowding at an extremely high 92.58, posing a major risk of a long squeeze;
4. International market GC=F closed at 4281.3, below S1 (4282.3), down 8.11% cumulatively over 20 days, with a bearish trend;
5. The term structure is in CONTANGO, and the premium in deferred months offers limited support to nearby months.
Short- versus medium-term balance of power: In the short term (1-5 days), bears have the upper hand due to stronger macro rates and the US dollar and high COT crowding; in the medium term (1-3 months), bulls and bears are balanced, with geopolitical safe-haven demand and relative-value repair providing support, but watch for downside risk triggered by a crowding unwind.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy One (range trading, sell high and buy low, short term):
Entry: If the price rebounds to near 944.27 CNY/g (R1) and meets resistance, a light short position may be attempted;
Stop-loss: 947 CNY/g (about 0.3% above R1);
Target: near 935.21 CNY/g (S1);
Horizon: 1-5 trading days;
Position size: no more than 10% of total capital.
Strategy Two (test longs at the lower edge of the box range, medium term):
Entry: If the price falls back to near 923.3 CNY/g (20-day low) and stabilizes, a light long position may be attempted;
Stop-loss: 918 CNY/g (about 0.6% below the 20-day low);
Target: near 952.61 CNY/g (MA20);
Horizon: 5-15 trading days;
Position size: no more than 15% of total capital.
Risk management: ATR is at a high level (international market 104.69), so stop-losses need to account for volatility; COT crowding is at an extremely high 92.58, so avoid heavy long chasing; if the price breaks below the 20-day low of 923.3 CNY/g, the box range is broken to the downside and needs to be reassessed.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
China economic calendar for the next 7 days:
- 2026-09-29 21:30:00 [CNY/HIGH] Manufacturing PMI.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.