I. Price Action & Technicals
As of the 2026-09-24 close, the SHFE Gold main continuous contract settled at 927.66 CNY/g, down 1.3317% on the day, the largest single-day decline in the past 5 trading sessions; daily volume was 183,228 lots and open interest was 222,206 lots, an open interest build of roughly 9,374 lots versus the prior trading day (2026-09-23, close 939.50, open interest 212,832 lots), presenting a “price down, open interest up” pattern that points to active short accumulation.
The moving average system has weakened across the board: MA5 at 939.44, MA20 at 949.23, with the close of 927.66 sitting below both MA5 and MA20, forming the early shape of a bearish alignment across short- and medium-term averages. The 20-day high H20 is 1003.68 and the 20-day low L20 is 923.30; the current price is about 7.57% off the 20-day high and only 4.36 CNY/g (roughly 0.47%) above the 20-day low, placing it at the lower edge of the range.
On the pivot framework, the 2026-09-24 pivot P is 930.37, first resistance R1 is 933.33 and first support S1 is 924.69; the close of 927.66 sits between P and S1, in the weaker zone below the pivot. If subsequent sessions fail to reclaim P (930.37), then S1 (924.69) and L20 (923.30) will form consecutive test levels; if P is reclaimed and R1 (933.33) is held, there is short-term momentum for a repair toward MA5 (939.44).
On the international comparison, GC=F settled at 4263.00 USD/oz on 2026-09-24, down 0.43%, with a 5-day cumulative of -2.56 and a 20-day cumulative of -7.87; ATR is 98.3785, indicating daily ranges remain elevated; pivot P is 4303.3333, R1 is 4321.6666 and S1 is 4268.6666, with the close below both P and S1, so the international market is similarly weak.
On a weekly and monthly basis, SHFE Gold closes over the past 5 trading sessions were 951.38 (09-18), 942.90 (09-21), 935.78 (09-22), 939.50 (09-23) and 927.66 (09-24), with the center of gravity continuing to shift lower, giving back on a weekly basis the 1.5130% rebound recorded on September 18. Domestic indicator readings for RSI, MACD and ATR are pending update; only the international ATR is available (98.3785), from which domestic volatility can be estimated to remain in an expansionary state. On risk metrics, the international market shows DD52w of 25.0602%, DD20d of 4.6842%, Sharpe30 of -0.3243, VaR95 of -2.8549% and Vol20 of 20.3243%, with risk-adjusted returns negative and volatility in the mid-to-high range.
II. Fundamental Drivers
The macro rates side constitutes the core drag. On 2026-09-24, the US 10-year Treasury yield ^TNX printed 5.1620%, up 0.94% on the day, in a high range; the dollar index DX-Y.NYB printed 101.2480, up 0.15% on the day. Rising real rates and a firmer dollar move in tandem, applying a double drag on non-yielding gold, and this is the main macro backdrop for the synchronized pullback in both SHFE Gold and international gold this round.
On the inflation and policy expectations dimension, the data section does not provide the latest CPI, PCE or Fed dot plot readings, and the relevant data are pending update; however, judging from the combination of rising nominal rates and falling gold prices, the market is more likely pricing a “higher for longer” rate path rather than trading an inflation-out-of-control narrative.
On the inventory and physical side, SHFE Gold inventory (warrant) stood at 116,031.00 kg on 2026-09-24, a weekly change of +1,200.00 kg, rebounding from 114,831.00 kg on 2026-09-23 (weekly change 0.00), indicating a modest accumulation in domestic deliverable inventory that poses a mild drag on near-month price elasticity. COMEX registered inventory was 472,462.17 kg on 2026-09-22, with the weekly change pending update.
On central bank gold buying and ETF flows, the data section does not provide the latest central bank net gold purchases or changes in global gold ETF holdings, and the relevant data are pending update; inference should not be substituted for these figures.
On the geopolitical and event side, international headlines over the past 48h are concentrated at the mining company level: OceanaGold's 97-gram intercept supporting the Waihi expansion (2026-09-24 14:43:23) and Kinross Gold cutting production while raising shareholder returns (2026-09-24 13:52:59), both of which are supply-side and corporate operating information, with no major geopolitical headline directly driving safe-haven demand. Domestic headlines over the past 48h are “Can gold still be considered for buying on dips?” and “Daily Gold Commentary | Gold prices fell, and this is the main reason” (both 2026-09-24 17:47:07), with sentiment leaning explanatory and allocation-discussion oriented, and no panic-style phrasing appearing.
On the term structure, the international market is in CONTANGO, with M1-M2 at -30.5000 (-0.7090%), RY at -8.5077% and slope at 20.6091; the deferred-month premium structure is unchanged, reflecting limited physical tightness.
III. Positioning and Fund Flows
COT positioning (international comparison) shows that as of 2026-09-15, total open interest OI was 409,899 lots, long positions L were 142,394 lots, short positions S were 9,278 lots, net long net was 133,116 lots and the weekly change Δ was -1,856 lots, the fourth consecutive week of declining net length: 2026-08-25 net long 144,747 (Δ +3,099), 2026-09-01 net long 136,771 (Δ -7,976), 2026-09-08 net long 134,972 (Δ -1,799), 2026-09-15 net long 133,116 (Δ -1,856). Over four weeks, net length has fallen by a cumulative roughly 11,631 lots, with longs continuing to retreat modestly, but the absolute short position (9,278 lots) remains at a low level, and large-scale short building has yet to appear.
On crowding metrics, as of 2026-09-15 net long share netPct was 32.4753%, crowding crowd was 92.58, CTA share was 62.00% and hedge share hedge was 14.8459%. Compared with 2026-08-25's netPct of 33.8228%, crowd of 92.02 and hedge of 15.9549%, net long share edged down while crowding actually rose, indicating the positioning structure remains crowded and the concentration risk among longs has not been fully released. The CTA share has held at 62.00% for four consecutive weeks, and trend-following money has yet to turn; if prices continue to break key levels, there is potential for a second-round shock from passive deleveraging.
On domestic positioning, SHFE Gold main continuous open interest rose from 197,546 lots on 2026-09-18 to 222,206 lots on 2026-09-24, a cumulative open interest build of about 24,660 lots over 5 trading sessions, while prices fell from 951.38 to 927.66 over the same period; the open interest build on declining prices is pronounced, pointing to short-side money in control.
On options and volatility, ^GVZ (CBOE Gold Volatility Index) printed 22.5800 on 2026-09-24, down 0.83% on the day, at a neutral-to-elevated level; ^VIX printed 15.6700, up 3.23% on the day, with equity volatility rising while gold volatility falls. The two diverge, showing that the current selling pressure in gold stems more from rates and dollar pricing than from systemic safe-haven sentiment.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
The gold-silver ratio (GC_SI_RATIO) is 66.8100, at the 54.76% P1Y percentile and the 18.25% P3Y percentile. It is mid-range on the one-year horizon and at a low percentile on the three-year horizon, meaning that relative to silver, gold is not expensive on a three-year scale; if risk appetite recovers, silver's elasticity may exceed gold's.
The oil-gold ratio (CL_GC_RATIO) is 0.0217, at the 87.70% P1Y percentile and the 44.84% P3Y percentile. The one-year percentile is elevated, indicating that relative to crude oil, gold has recently outperformed or crude has been relatively weak; the three-year dimension is neutral. With this ratio at a one-year high, if crude subsequently strengthens on supply disruptions, the pressure for relative-value repair that would weigh on gold rises.
The copper-gold ratio (HG_GC_RATIO) is 0.0016, at the 91.27% P1Y percentile and the 47.62% P3Y percentile. The one-year percentile is extremely high, reflecting that copper's relative value against gold sits at a near-one-year high, typically corresponding to improving growth expectations or a fading safe-haven premium in gold; the three-year dimension is neutral. Taking the three ratios together, gold is weak relative to both copper and oil on the one-year horizon and neutral-to-strong relative to silver, and the cross-asset signals overall do not support a one-way strong gold market.
V. Sentiment
On the sentiment score, the data section does not provide quantitative sentiment indicator readings, and the sentiment score data are pending update. Observable substitute signals are: domestic headlines over the past 48h number only two, both explanatory and allocation-discussion oriented (“Can gold still be considered for buying on dips?” and “Daily Gold Commentary | Gold prices fell, and this is the main reason”, both 2026-09-24 17:47:07), with headlines leaning neutral-to-cautious and no panic or extreme bearish wording; the two international headlines over the past 48h are both mining company operating and exploration information, with low relevance to price sentiment.
On volatility sentiment, GVZ at 22.58 falls while VIX at 15.67 rises; risk sentiment is heating up in equities and bonds and cooling in precious metals, and overall sentiment toward gold is neutral to slightly bearish.
VI. Historical Statistical Patterns
The data section does not provide the seasonal return series for SHFE Gold over the same period (late September to early October) for the past 10 years; the seasonal statistical pattern data is pending update. Available statistics for reference are as follows: the international market DD52w stands at 25.0602%, meaning the current price has retraced approximately one-quarter from its 52-week high, placing it in the middle of the historical drawdown range; DD20d is 4.6842%, indicating a moderate 20-day drawdown; Sharpe30 is -0.3243, with risk-adjusted returns over the past 30 days in negative territory.
From the available percentile data, the Gold-Silver Ratio P3Y percentile is 18.25%, the Oil-Gold Ratio P1Y percentile is 87.70%, and the Copper-Gold Ratio P1Y percentile is 91.27%. The three ratio percentiles show pronounced divergence, and the direction of historical mean reversion is not consistent across them, making single-directional seasonal inference inadvisable on this basis. It is recommended to supplement this analysis once the complete seasonal series is obtained.
VII. Long-Short Game Deduction
Bullish arguments: (1) The close at 927.66 has approached the 20-day low of 923.30, only about 3 CNY/g away from S1 (924.69), suggesting potential technical repair demand after a short-term oversold condition; (2) COT short positions stand at only 9,278 lots in absolute terms, at a low level, lacking the ammunition base for further selling pressure; (3) GVZ has declined to 22.58, and cooling volatility typically accompanies diminishing selling pressure; (4) The Gold-Silver Ratio P3Y percentile is only 18.25%, meaning gold is not expensive relative to silver on a three-year horizon, providing relative-value support from allocation flows.
Bearish arguments: (1) The US 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.1620% with a single-day rise of 0.94%, and the US Dollar Index at 101.2480 is up 0.15%, with the dual pressure from real rates and the dollar unresolved; (2) COT net longs have declined for four consecutive weeks, cumulatively down approximately 11,631 lots, with trend-following capital still retreating; (3) Crowding at 92.58 is at an elevated level, with CTA share at 62.00%, indicating high long concentration and risk of passive deleveraging; (4) SHFE inventories rose by 1,200 kg week-over-week to 116,031 kg, with the domestic physical side loosening at the margin; (5) SHFE Gold is declining on open interest build, with cumulative open interest build of approximately 24,660 lots over 5 days, clearly a short-dominated setup.
Short-to-medium-term balance of forces: In the short term (1-5 days), bears hold the advantage, with price below the pivot P (930.37) and approaching L20 (923.30); a breach would open downside space. In the medium term (1-3 months), long-short divergence is widening, with net longs retreating but shorts not entering on a large scale; if rates peak and decline, a repair window exists. The overall assessment is “short-term bearish, medium-term neutral.”
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy One (Sell the bounce, primary strategy): If price rebounds into the 933.33 (R1) to 939.44 (MA5) zone and meets resistance, enter short. Entry reference 933.33, stop-loss reference 944.27 (2026-09-23 R1), targets reference 924.69 (S1) and 923.30 (L20), time horizon 1-5 trading days, position size recommended not to exceed 15% of total capital, conviction 7.
Strategy Two (Light long on oversold, secondary strategy): If price probes toward 923.30 (L20) and shows stabilization signals, initiate a light long. Entry reference 924.69 (S1), stop-loss reference 915.00 (approximately 0.9% below L20), targets reference 933.33 (R1) and 939.44 (MA5), time horizon 1-5 trading days, position size recommended not to exceed 8% of total capital, conviction 5.
Risk management: Single-trade risk exposure should be controlled within 1.5% of total capital; if the closing price effectively breaks below 923.30 (L20), the long strategy should be stopped out immediately; if the closing price effectively reclaims 949.23 (MA20), the short strategy should be stopped out. All strategies require dynamic adjustment of stop-loss width in conjunction with GVZ (22.58) and ATR (98.3785), avoiding overly tight stops when volatility is expanding.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
Domestic economic calendar for the next 7 days: 2026-09-29 21:30 [CNY/HIGH] Manufacturing PMI, the only high-importance event listed within this period, warranting close attention for its transmission to CNY-denominated gold and domestic risk appetite. Data for the remaining periods is not provided in the data section; related event data is pending update.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.