I. Price Action & Technicals
As of 2026-09-24, SHFE Copper main continuous closed at 110,130 CNY/t, a single-day change of -0.5867%, with volume of 73,438 lots and open interest of 178,590 lots. The past 5 trading sessions show a “spike-and-fade” structure: 2026-09-22 closed at 111,320 CNY/t (+1.2368%) marking the range high, followed by 09-23 at 110,330 CNY/t (-0.8002%) and 09-24 at 110,130 CNY/t (-0.5867%), giving back roughly 1.07% cumulatively over the two days.
On the moving average system, the 09-24 MA5 is 110,316 CNY/t and MA20 is 109,372 CNY/t; the close of 110,130 CNY/t sits about 186 CNY below MA5 and about 758 CNY above MA20, with the short-term MA flattening while the medium-term MA remains upward-sloping — a “weakening bullish alignment” pattern. The 20-day range high H20 is 112,330 CNY/t and the low L20 is 106,650 CNY/t, placing the current price in the upper-middle portion of the range at roughly the 60th percentile. The pivot P is 110,210 CNY/t, R1 is 110,490 CNY/t, and S1 is 109,850 CNY/t; the close is slightly below the pivot, reflecting intraday weakness.
On the international comparison, HG=F closed 09-24 at 6.7185 USD/lb (+0.61%), with a 5-day gain of 3.01% and a 20-day gain of 2.89%; P is 6.7710, R1 is 6.8170, S1 is 6.7390, and ATR is 0.1298, indicating rising international volatility with the close below the pivot.
At the indicator level, the data segment does not directly provide SHFE Copper RSI and MACD readings, so specific values are pending update; usable proxy volatility metrics are international Vol20 25.7963%, VaR95 -2.9712%, Sharpe30 1.0790, and ^VIX 15.6700 (+3.23%, 2026-09-24), pointing to a marginal deterioration in risk appetite. ATR of 0.1298 USD/lb corresponds to roughly a 1.9% average daily range; converted to SHFE Copper, short-term stop-losses need at least a 1.5%-2% buffer.
Key level assessment: to the upside, first resistance is R1 110,490 CNY/t and second resistance is H20 112,330 CNY/t; to the downside, first support is S1 109,850 CNY/t, second support is MA20 109,372 CNY/t, and third support is L20 106,650 CNY/t. If the close holds above 110,490 CNY/t, a test of 112,330 CNY/t becomes likely; if 109,372 CNY/t is lost, then 106,650 CNY/t comes into view.
II. Fundamental Drivers
On the macro rates side, the US 10-year Treasury yield ^TNX prints 5.1620% (+0.94%, 2026-09-24), at an elevated level, with rising real rates weighing on valuations for non-yielding assets and industrial metals. The dollar index DX-Y.NYB prints 101.2480 (+0.15%), with a firmer dollar eroding upward momentum for USD-denominated copper. The combination implies limited support for copper from its “financial attribute,” leaving price more dependent on its “commodity attribute,” namely inventories and spot tightness.
Inventories show clear destocking. SHFE warrants stood at 16,620 t on 2026-09-24, a weekly change of -2,468 t; 19,088 t on 09-23, a weekly change of -1,717 t; and 20,805 t on 09-22, a weekly change of -1,503 t — three consecutive days of declines with the magnitude widening, a clear signal of near-dated domestic spot tightness. LME inventories stood at 252,500 t on 2026-09-23, with the weekly change pending update; the absolute level remains in a neutral-to-high range, extending the domestic-international divergence.
The term structure corroborates near-dated tightness: on the international market, BACKWARDATION M1-M2 is 0.0275 (0.4106%), RY is 4.9272%, and slope is 0.0323; the coexistence of a positive slope and a BACK structure indicates simultaneous spot premium and deferred discount, with the market pricing short-term supply tightness while leaving room for forward supply recovery.
On the geopolitical and industry side, international headlines over the past 48h are dominated by aluminum, lead, and steel, with the only copper-related item being “2026 National Day Holiday Survey of Copper Processing Enterprises — Copper Tube” (SMM, 2026-09-24), pointing to a survey of copper tube processing enterprises' operating rates and restocking ahead of the National Day and Mid-Autumn holidays, with specific conclusions and data pending update. Hindustan Copper is advancing USD 776 million in capex financing (SMM, 2026-09-24), a medium- to long-term supply-side incremental signal with limited near-term impact. Domestic headlines over the past 48h include only one nickel supply chain analysis (Jiantou Nonferrous, 2026-09-24); copper-specific drivers are scarce, leaving sentiment without fresh catalysts.
Overall, fundamentals present a bullish-leaning combination of “inventory destocking + BACK structure,” but this is offset by the macro combination of “high rates + strong dollar,” leaving the net driver neutral-to-slightly-bullish.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows
International COT data show that as of 2026-09-15 total open interest OI was 289,463 lots, longs L were 83,704 lots, shorts S were 18,598 lots, and net long net was 65,106 lots, with a week-on-week Δ of -17,048 lots — the largest single-week reduction in four weeks. Looking back: 09-08 net long 82,154 lots (Δ +9,272), 09-01 net long 72,882 lots (Δ -3,389), 08-25 net long 76,271 lots (Δ -2,377); net long peaked on 09-08 and then fell for two consecutive weeks, down a cumulative ~17,048 lots, showing clear long profit-taking.
On crowding, 2026-09-15 netPct was 22.4920%, crowd was 63.36, CTA was 98.00, and hedge was 58.2658%. Versus 09-08 netPct 27.6156% and crowd 69.39, the net long share and crowding fell in tandem, but the CTA reading has held at an extremely high 98.00 for four consecutive weeks, indicating trend-following funds remain fully long; should price break below key moving averages, forced CTA de-risking could steepen the downside slope.
On domestic positioning, SHFE Copper main continuous OI rose from 146,794 lots on 09-22 to 178,590 lots on 09-24, an open interest build of about 31,796 lots over two days, synchronous with the price decline — an “open interest build on price decline,” hinting at short-term short entry.
On options and volatility, ^VIX prints 15.6700 (+3.23%), international Vol20 is 25.7963%, and ATR is 0.1298, with the volatility center drifting modestly higher. The data segment does not provide SHFE Copper option IV and PCR, with specific readings pending update. In sum, flows are shifting from “crowded longs” to “long reduction + short probing,” with crowding risk somewhat released but the elevated CTA reading remaining a potential source of instability.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
The copper-gold ratio HG_GC_RATIO prints 0.0016, at the 91.27% P1Y percentile and the 47.62% P3Y percentile. The structure is clear: on a one-year horizon, copper is at a historically high level relative to gold (91.27rd percentile), reflecting that over the past year copper's industrial demand narrative has been stronger than gold's safe-haven narrative; but on a three-year horizon it is only at the 47.62nd percentile, indicating the current ratio has yet to break above its medium-term center — “expensive on a short cycle, neutral on a medium cycle.” If gold strengthens as real rates peak, the copper-gold ratio faces pressure to revert toward its one-year center, i.e., risk of copper underperforming gold.
The data segment does not provide direct readings for the gold-silver ratio or oil-gold ratio, with related percentile data pending update. Usable macro anchors are ^TNX 5.1620% and DXY 101.2480; high real rates typically pressure the copper-gold ratio, and a firmer dollar reinforces that direction.
Cross-asset conclusion: the high P1Y 91.27% percentile for the copper-gold ratio means copper price has priced in the “reflation trade” fairly fully, and further upside in the ratio requires stronger spot tightness or destocking data at the margin; conversely, if US Treasury yields hold above 5% and the dollar index holds above 101, the probability of a downward repair in the ratio rises. For SHFE Copper, the cross-asset signal is neutral-to-bearish, requiring strength in inventories and the BACK structure to offset it.
V. Sentiment
The data segment does not provide a quantitative sentiment score, which is pending update. Domestic headlines over the past 48h number only 1 (Jiantou Nonferrous nickel supply chain analysis, 2026-09-24 17:38), with no copper-specific bullish or bearish catalyst; international headlines number 8, of which 1 is copper-related (SMM copper tube processing enterprise National Day survey, 2026-09-24 18:28), with the rest concentrated in aluminum, lead, steel, and ship recycling, leaning neutral. Overall sentiment exhibits an “information vacuum,” with prices driven more by flows and inventory data, and limited event-driven trading opportunities.
VI. Historical Statistical Patterns
The data segment does not provide the 10-year seasonal return series for SHFE Copper; seasonal statistics are pending update. Confirmable statistical characteristics include: DD52w at 13.4888%, DD20d at 6.9597%, Sharpe30 at 1.0790, Vol20 at 25.7963%, and VaR95 at -2.9712%. The above metrics indicate that the current drawdown from the 52-week high is approximately 13.49%, and the drawdown from the 20-day high is approximately 6.96%. Risk-adjusted return (Sharpe30 1.0790) remains positive, but 20-day volatility of 25.80% sits in the mid-to-high range, with a single-day 95% confidence loss of approximately 2.97%.
Patterns inferred from available data: over the past 5 days, SHFE Copper has exhibited “two gains, three declines, with highs moving lower day by day” (111320→110330→110130), indicating weakening short-term momentum; meanwhile, SHFE warrants have declined for three consecutive days (20805→19088→16620 tonnes), creating a short-term divergence between inventory and price. Historically, such divergences have mostly converged either through a catch-up rally in price or a halt in the inventory decline; direction remains to be verified. The pre-National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival survey of processing enterprises (SMM, 2026-09-24) typically corresponds to a restocking window; specific seasonal conclusions are pending data updates.
VII. Long-Short Game Deduction
Bullish logic (no fewer than 4 points):
1) Clear inventory destocking: SHFE warrants at 16620 tonnes, down 2468 tonnes week-on-week, declining for three consecutive days with an expanding pace of decline, near-end spot tightness.
2) BACK term structure: M1-M2 at 0.0275 (0.4106%), RY 4.9272%, spot premium supporting the front month.
3) Price remains above MA20 (109372), medium-term moving averages unbroken, trend not reversed.
4) International market HG=F up 2.89% over 20 days and 3.01% over 5 days, overseas resilience persists.
Bearish logic (no fewer than 4 points):
1) COT net long positions fell by 17048 lots week-on-week to 65106 lots, with longs exiting for two consecutive weeks.
2) CTA crowding at 98.00 is at an extreme high, crowd 63.36, passive deleveraging risk not yet dissipated.
3) Macro headwinds: ^TNX at 5.1620%, DXY at 101.2480, both real rates and the dollar at elevated levels.
4) Copper-gold ratio P1Y percentile at 91.27% is expensive, cross-asset cost-effectiveness declining.
5) Domestic main contract declined on open interest build (OI 146794→178590), short-term shorts entering.
Balance of forces: short-term (1-5 days) bears hold a slight edge, as the decline on open interest build and net long reduction form a resonance; medium-term (1-3 months) bulls and bears are near equilibrium, with inventory destocking and the BACK structure providing downside support. If the dollar and Treasury yields peak and retreat, bulls can regain the initiative. Key verification points are the battle over 110490 CNY/t (R1) and 109372 CNY/t (MA20).
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy One (buy the dip within range, LONG): entry reference zone 109400-109900 CNY/t (close to MA20 109372 and S1 109850), stop-loss 108600 CNY/t (buffer above L20 106650), targets 111800-112300 CNY/t (above R1 110490 up to H20 112330), horizon 1-5 trading days, position size not exceeding 15% of total capital, based on inventory destocking and the BACK structure. If the close falls below 109372 CNY/t, the strategy is invalidated and exit.
Strategy Two (sell the rebound, SHORT): entry reference zone 111900-112300 CNY/t (close to H20 112330), stop-loss 113200 CNY/t, targets 110200-109400 CNY/t (pivot 110210 down to MA20 109372), horizon 1-5 trading days, position size not exceeding 10% of total capital, based on net long reduction and elevated CTA crowding. If the close rises above 112330 CNY/t, the strategy is invalidated and exit.
Risk management: single-trade risk exposure controlled within 1.5% of total capital; ATR of approximately 0.1298 USD/lb corresponds to a relatively large intraday range, avoid holding full positions overnight; VaR95 at -2.9712%, corresponding margin buffer must be reserved; liquidity declines ahead of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, recommend reducing position size and monitoring the 2026-09-29 21:30 Manufacturing PMI as a catalyst for direction.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
Key events over the next 7 days: 2026-09-29 21:30 (CNY/HIGH) Manufacturing PMI, the most important macro data point before the holiday, directly affecting copper demand expectations and RMB-denominated asset sentiment. The remainder of the schedule is not provided in the data segment and is pending update. Recommend adjusting positions to a neutral level before the PMI release, and after release, determining the direction of position increases or decreases based on the actual reading relative to 110490 CNY/t (R1) and 109372 CNY/t (MA20).
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.