I. Price Action & Technicals
As of the 2026-09-24 close, the SHFE.RB main continuous contract settled at 3118.00, up 0.0321% on the day, with volume of 570,630 lots and open interest of 1,615,888 lots. Over the past 5 trading sessions, it closed at 3096.00 on September 18 (-1.0230%), rebounded to 3117.00 on September 21 (+0.4188%), settled at 3114.00 on September 22 (+0.1931%), settled at 3113.00 on September 23 (-0.2563%), and settled at 3118.00 on September 24 (+0.0321%), overall exhibiting a narrow-range consolidation between 3096-3118, with volatility clearly converging.
On the moving average system, MA5 stood at 3111.60 and MA20 at 3134.85 on September 24, with the close of 3118.00 above MA5 and below MA20; the short-term moving average has flattened while the medium-term moving average remains downward-sloping, indicating limited rebound momentum and lingering medium-term pressure. The 20-day high H20 is 3203.00 and the 20-day low L20 is 3081.00; the current price sits in the lower-middle portion of the 20-day range (range width of 122 points, price percentile at roughly 30.3%), consistent with a weak consolidation structure.
On pivot indicators, the September 24 pivot P is 3112.67, first resistance R1 is 3125.33, and first support S1 is 3105.33. The close of 3118.00 is above P (3112.67) and S1 (3105.33) but below R1 (3125.33), indicating that intraday longs hold a slight edge but failed to break above resistance. Versus September 23's P=3116.33, R1=3125.67, S1=3103.67, the pivot center of gravity is essentially flat, offering limited directional guidance.
On momentum indicators, this data segment does not provide specific readings for RSI, MACD, or ATR, and the relevant readings are pending update; however, inferring from the price's relative position to the moving averages, MACD is most likely still below or hugging the zero line, RSI is expected to sit in the neutral-to-weak 40-50 range, and ATR is trending lower given the narrowing amplitude over the past 5 sessions.
Key level assessment: the first upside resistance is R1=3125.33, the second is MA20=3134.85, and the third is the 20-day high of 3203.00; the first downside support is S1=3105.33, the second is MA5=3111.60 (close to S1, forming a 3105-3112 support band), and the third is the 20-day low of 3081.00. If the price holds above 3125.33, it could challenge 3134.85; if it loses 3105.33, then 3081.00 becomes the next level to watch.
II. Fundamental Drivers
On the macro rates front, as of 2026-09-24, the US 10-year Treasury yield ^TNX printed 5.1620, up 0.94% on the day, at an elevated level. High long-end rates imply a rise in the global risk-free rate, weighing on the valuation of commodities such as Rebar, and in particular raising the financing costs of downstream construction and infrastructure projects, indirectly dampening the marginal expansion of steel demand.
On the dollar and inflation front, the US Dollar Index DX-Y.NYB printed 101.2480, up 0.15% on the day. A stronger dollar typically transmits negatively to USD-denominated international commodities; although Rebar is primarily priced on domestic demand, a stronger dollar often accompanies capital outflow pressure from emerging markets, indirectly dragging on domestic risk-asset sentiment. Inflation data is not provided in this data segment, and the data is pending update.
On inventories and central bank gold purchases, this data segment does not provide Rebar social inventories, mill inventories, output, or apparent consumption data, nor does it provide central bank gold purchase-related indicators; the relevant fundamental data is pending update. It should be noted that Rebar's core fundamentals are anchored to domestic property, infrastructure, and manufacturing demand, as well as mill operating rates and profitability; these high-frequency data are missing from this data segment, so the confidence of the fundamental judgment is constrained.
On the ETF and flows front, this data segment does not provide steel or ferrous-sector ETF flow data, and the data is pending update.
On the geopolitical front, this data segment does not provide geopolitics-related event data, and the data is pending update.
Taken together, the currently verifiable macro drivers mainly come from two threads, overseas rates and the dollar: the rise in the US Treasury yield to 5.1620 and the strengthening of the Dollar Index to 101.2480 both point to a tight external liquidity environment, constituting a neutral-to-bearish external constraint on RB valuation. Domestic fundamentals cannot be given a directional judgment for now due to missing data, and we need to wait for the September 29 manufacturing PMI and subsequent inventory data for verification.
III. Positioning & Fund Flows
On open interest, SHFE.RB main continuous open interest on 2026-09-24 was 1,615,888 lots, up 8,724 lots from 1,607,164 lots on September 23, up 26,041 lots from 1,589,847 lots on September 22, and up 25,353 lots from 1,590,535 lots on September 21, but down 26,479 lots from 1,642,367 lots on September 18. After the sharp swing on September 18 (when volume of 884,858 lots was the highest in the past 5 sessions), open interest gradually declined, then rose modestly for three consecutive sessions, indicating that funds are re-establishing positions within the 3096-3118 range, with long-short divergence accumulating but not yet forming one-sided crowding.
On volume, September 24 volume was 570,630 lots, up 9.2% from 522,561 lots on September 23, and significantly shrunken versus 884,858 lots on September 18. Overall volume is at a neutral level, with no signal of a high-volume breakout or high-volume breakdown, consistent with range-bound characteristics.
On COT classification data, this data segment does not provide the breakdown of long and short positions in Rebar futures (commercial positions, non-commercial positions, retail positions), and the data is pending update. Crowding indicators (such as the long-short ratio and position concentration) are likewise pending update.
On options and volatility, this data segment does not provide SHFE.RB option implied volatility data, and only provides the international-market reference ^VIX index: 15.6700 on 2026-09-24, down 3.23% on the day. VIX has fallen back to the low range of 15.67, reflecting a marginal improvement in global risk appetite, but this indicator has limited correlation with Rebar and can only serve as background reference for macro sentiment.
In sum, the current funding picture shows “modest open interest recovery, neutral volume, and a lack of classification detail,” and the dominance of longs or shorts cannot be confirmed. If open interest subsequently rises in tandem with price, the bullish signal strengthens; if open interest rises while price falls, signs of short building emerge.
IV. Cross-Asset Relative Value
This data segment does not provide specific price data for gold, silver, crude oil, or copper, so the gold-silver ratio, oil-gold ratio, copper-gold ratio, and their historical percentiles cannot be calculated, and the relevant relative value data is pending update.
The available cross-asset threads are: the US 10-year Treasury yield ^TNX at 5.1620 (+0.94%), the US Dollar Index DX-Y.NYB at 101.2480 (+0.15%), and VIX at 15.6700 (-3.23%). From these three threads, the current macro combination is “rising rates + firm dollar + falling volatility,” a classic “risk appetite repair but tight liquidity” combination.
For Rebar, the transmission path of this combination is: rising rates raise financing costs, suppress property and infrastructure investment willingness, and are bearish for steel demand expectations; a firm dollar suppresses the overall valuation center of commodities; falling VIX means short-term panic sentiment is easing, providing weak support for risk assets. Combined, the net impact on RB is neutral-to-slightly-bearish.
Given the lack of actual relative value data for copper, oil, gold, and other industrial and precious metals, it is impossible to judge whether Rebar is cheap or expensive relative to other commodities, nor to give directional mean-reversion recommendations. We suggest that after subsequent data updates, close attention be paid to changes in the copper-gold ratio (reflecting global manufacturing prosperity) and the oil-gold ratio (reflecting inflation and growth expectations) to cross-validate Rebar demand expectations.
V. Sentiment
On the sentiment score, this data segment does not provide a Rebar-specific sentiment scoring indicator, and the data is pending update.
Domestic-related headlines over the past 48 hours (market=CN, asset=STEEL) returned N/A, i.e., no available headline data, so the news bias (bullish/bearish/neutral) cannot be quantified. The sentiment surface is in an information vacuum, lacking new drivers.
An indirect sentiment indicator for reference is ^VIX: 15.6700 on 2026-09-24, down 3.23% on the day, at a low level, indicating low global market panic and a warmer risk appetite. However, VIX mainly reflects US equities and global macro sentiment, and its transmission to domestic steel products is weak, so it can only serve as background reference.
In sum, the current sentiment surface lacks clear signals, and the market is in a wait-and-see state ahead of the September 29 manufacturing PMI. If concentrated interpretation of the news flow emerges after the PMI release, the sentiment score could change rapidly and requires close tracking.
VI. Historical Statistical Patterns
This data segment does not provide seasonal price data for Rebar over the same period (late September) in the past 10 years, nor does it provide historical up/down probability statistics. The relevant seasonal pattern data is pending update.
From the available data for the past 5 days, during the period from September 18 to September 24, the continuous closing prices of the RB main contract were 3096.00, 3117.00, 3114.00, 3113.00, and 3118.00, respectively, with a cumulative 5-day gain of 22 points (from 3096.00 to 3118.00), an increase of approximately 0.71%, a trading range of 3096.00-3118.00, and an amplitude of approximately 0.71%. This sample is too short to infer seasonal patterns.
Based on general experience, late September to October is the traditional peak demand season for domestic construction steel (“Golden September and Silver October”), but this report cannot verify this using historical data outside the data segment, and therefore makes no definitive statement. If subsequent inventory data and apparent consumption data corroborate, the quality of the peak season can be verified; if data is missing, the seasonal judgment remains in a pending-update status.
VII. Long-Short Game Deduction
Bullish logic (no fewer than 4 points):
1. Price holds above MA5 (3111.60) and pivot P (3112.67), with the September 24 close of 3118.00 above both, indicating a relatively stable short-term structure;
2. On September 24, open interest of 1,615,888 lots increased by 8,724 lots from the previous day, with capital returning moderately, which if sustained would favor a rebound;
3. VIX fell to 15.6700 (-3.23%), improving global risk appetite and providing weak support for commodity sentiment;
4. Price is in the lower-middle portion of the 20-day range (3118.00 versus 3081.00-3203.00), with 85 points of room to the upside resistance at 3203.00; if PMI beats expectations, there is room for upward repair;
5. From September 21 to September 24, closing prices were above 3113.00 for four consecutive days, and the 3105-3112 support band is initially effective.
Bearish logic (no fewer than 4 points):
1. The closing price of 3118.00 remains below MA20 (3134.85), and the medium-term moving average suppression has not been lifted;
2. The US 10-year Treasury yield is elevated at 5.1620 (+0.94%), and rising financing costs weigh on steel demand expectations;
3. The US Dollar Index is firm at 101.2480 (+0.15%), exerting external pressure on commodity valuations;
4. On September 18, there was a single-day decline of 1.0230% to 3096.00, showing that downside support is not unbreakable; if 3105.33 (S1) is breached, stop-loss orders could easily be triggered;
5. Steel headline data has been missing for the past 48 hours, lacking bullish catalysts, and wait-and-see sentiment may cap the rebound height.
Short-to-medium-term balance of forces: In the short term (1-5 days), bullish and bearish forces are close to equilibrium, with price oscillating within the narrow pivot range of 3105.33-3125.33, and direction depending on the September 29 manufacturing PMI. In the medium term (1-4 weeks), MA20 (3134.85) sloping downward and the 20-day high of 3203.00 form dual upside pressure; if demand data does not cooperate, the probability of weak-range-bound trading is slightly higher; if PMI significantly beats expectations and drives inventory destocking, there is potential to test 3134.85 and even 3203.00.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy One (Buy the Dip in Range, LONG): Entry reference at the 3105-3112 support band (corresponding to S1=3105.33 and MA5=3111.60); the entry price of 2650 is not applicable, and 3110 is actually used as the reference center; stop-loss set below 3081.00 (20-day low), i.e., 3075; targets at 3125.33 (R1) to 3134.85 (MA20); horizon 1-5 days; position size recommended not to exceed 15% of total capital; confidence level 6.
Strategy Two (Sell the Rally in Range, SHORT): If price rebounds to the 3125.33 (R1) to 3134.85 (MA20) resistance band and fails to break through effectively, a light short position may be attempted; entry reference at 3130; stop-loss set at 3145 (approximately 10 points above MA20); targets at 3105.33 (S1) to 3081.00 (20-day low); horizon 1-5 days; position size recommended not to exceed 10% of total capital; confidence level 5.
Risk Management: Single-trade risk exposure should be controlled within 1.5% of total capital; if after the September 29 manufacturing PMI release price breaks above 3134.85 or below 3081.00 on elevated volume, the original range strategy becomes invalid, and positions should be exited immediately and reassessed; it is strictly prohibited to take heavy directional bets before data releases.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
Key events in the next 7 days: 2026-09-29 21:30 (CNY/HIGH) Manufacturing PMI release, the most important domestic macro data within this cycle, directly affecting Rebar demand expectations and short-term direction selection. No other events are provided for the remaining dates in this data segment; data is pending update. It is recommended to reduce positions before and after the PMI release and wait for the data to land before making decisions.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.