一、 Price Action & Technicals
As of the close on 2026-09-24, the main continuous contract of SHFE Silver (SHFE.AG) traded at 15661 CNY/kg, down 3.24% on the day, marking its largest single-day decline in the past 5 trading days. The rhythm over the past 5 days is as follows: closed at 16304 CNY on September 18 (up 4.07%), closed at 16140 CNY on September 21 (up 0.22%), closed at 15949 CNY on September 22 (down 1.83%), closed at 16165 CNY on September 23 (up 0.26%), and closed at 15661 CNY on September 24 (down 3.24%). The 5-day cumulative decline from 16304 CNY is 643 CNY, or approximately 3.94%.
Moving average structure has weakened: on September 24, MA5 stood at 16043.8 CNY, MA20 at 16032.3 CNY, and the closing price of 15661 CNY was below both, forming short-term and medium-term resistance above. Additionally, MA5 has crossed below MA20, marking the initial stage of a bearish alignment. For the 20-day range, H20 is 17388 CNY, L20 is 15285 CNY, with a range width of 2103 CNY; the current closing price is near the lower edge of the range, only 376 CNY away from L20 and 1727 CNY away from H20, with a channel position of approximately 17.9% (calculated with L20 = 0 and H20 = 100), placing it in the lower range area.
In terms of volatility, ATR14 is 489.57 CNY, equivalent to 3.13% of the latest closing price. The single-day decline of 3.24% has slightly exceeded one ATR14, indicating volatility release rather than a mild correction. On the pivot system, the pivot P on September 24 is 15747 CNY, R1 is 15914 CNY, S1 is 15494 CNY; the closing price of 15661 CNY is below P and above S1, placing it in the bearish interval of the pivot. Key levels are summarized as follows: the first resistance above is P (15747 CNY) and MA20 (16032.3 CNY), and the first support below is S1 (15494 CNY), below which is the 20-day low of 15285 CNY. If the price stabilizes above S1 and recovers P, it may retrace toward MA20 in the short term; if S1 is broken and L20 is breached, the lower edge of the range will be opened, requiring reassessment.
二、 Fundamental Drivers
Macroeconomic interest rates constitute core downward pressure. As of 2026-09-25, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) stood at 5.18%, up 0.43% on the day, remaining in a high range; the U.S. Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) traded at 100.97, down 0.32% on the day. High real interest rates directly raise the holding opportunity cost of silver, which is the fundamental background for the current pullback of SHFE Silver from its September 20 high of 17388 CNY. The single-day decline in the U.S. Dollar Index provides marginal support for precious metals, but the magnitude is limited, insufficient to reverse the interest rate-driven pricing logic.
Inventories show a divergence between onshore and offshore markets. Cross-reference with overseas markets shows that as of 2026-09-24, COMEX registered inventories stood at 2994645 kg, down 10886.2 kg from 3005531.2 kg on 2026-09-23. A decline in registered inventories usually corresponds to a tightening of deliverable supply, which is bullish for prices; meanwhile, SHFE warehouse warrants stood at 1443896 kg, up 1753 kg from 1442143 kg on 2026-09-23, and increased by 4494 kg on September 23 from the previous day, accumulating continuously. The consecutive rise in Chinese warehouse warrants indicates that the spot market is not tight, suppressing SHFE Silver's elasticity relative to international markets and explaining the recent divergence between international and Chinese markets.
In terms of term structure, cross-reference with overseas markets shows a CONTANGO structure: M1-M2 is -0.27 (-0.42%), rolling yield RY is -5.02%, and slope is 0.2948. The forward market pattern of near-month discount and far-month premium reflects relatively loose immediate supply, which is mutually confirmed by the accumulation of SHFE warehouse warrants. In terms of geopolitics and safe-haven demand, ^VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) is at 14.87, down 5.11% on the day, with risk appetite in a moderately optimistic range, so safe-haven premium provides limited support for silver. Overall, macro interest rates and Chinese inventories constitute dual downward pressure, while the decline in COMEX registered inventories and the U.S. Dollar Index pullback provide marginal buffers, resulting in an overall neutral to slightly bearish fundamental outlook.
三、 Positioning & Fund Flows
COT classification data shows that as of 2026-09-22, total open interest (OI) in the international market stood at 106474 lots, with long positions (L) at 19303 lots, short positions (S) at 5994 lots, net long positions at 13309 lots, and weekly change (Δ) at +185 lots. Reviewing the past 4 weeks: net long positions were 12598 lots on September 1 (Δ -1475), 14386 lots on September 8 (Δ +1788), 13124 lots on September 15 (Δ -1262), and 13309 lots on September 22 (Δ +185). Net long positions have fluctuated in the range of 12598 to 14386 lots, with a slight rebound in the latest week, showing no trend-driven exit; the funding side is consolidating at a high level rather than collapsing.
Crowding indicators show that as of 2026-09-22, net long position ratio (netPct) is 12.5%, crowding (crowd) is 55.01, CTA position is 62, and hedge position ratio (hedge) is 24.99%. Compared with the high levels of netPct 13.93% and crowd 58.85 on September 8, current crowding has declined from highs; on September 15, netPct was 12.65% and crowd was 55.04, and on September 1, netPct was 12.07% and crowd was 53.27. The simultaneous mild decline in net long position ratio and crowding indicates that long-side crowding pressure is being released rather than further accumulated, which is structurally supportive for subsequent rebounds.
In terms of options and volatility, ^VXSLV (CBOE Silver Volatility Index) is at 35.99, unchanged on the day, remaining at a relatively high level, with implied volatility pricing significant two-way risks; risk indicators show Vol20 at 33.27%, VaR95 at -6.28%, DD20d at 6.98%, DD52w at 51.43%, and Sharpe30 at only 0.1443. The combination of high volatility and low Sharpe ratio means trend-following strategies are less efficient, while range-bound and mean-reversion approaches are relatively dominant.
四、 Cross-Asset Relative Value
The gold-silver ratio (GC_SI_RATIO) is at 66.68, with a 1-year percentile (P1Y) of 54.37% and a 3-year percentile (P3Y) of 18.12%. This ratio is in the upper-middle range of the 1-year interval and significantly low in the 3-year interval, indicating that measured over three years, silver has significantly outperformed gold (a lower ratio means stronger silver), but has returned to the middle of the range over the past year. Based on mean-reversion logic, the 3-year low ratio implies limited room for further downward movement of the ratio, meaning silver's relative strength against gold has been fully priced; if the ratio subsequently rebounds upward, silver will underperform gold, exerting relative drag on SHFE Silver's unilateral trend; conversely, if the ratio remains low or even dips further, silver's relative strength will persist.
It should be noted that the low gold-silver ratio contradicts the current SHFE Silver price being at the lower edge of its 20-day range: the ratio indicates silver's medium-term relative strength, while the price has recently pulled back sharply in the short term. This divergence is explained by the synchronous correction of gold and silver, with silver's industrial attributes and high volatility amplifying the decline, representing beta amplification rather than relative weakness. Therefore, the ratio signal is neutral for SHFE Silver, providing more of a constraint of “avoid excessive bearishness” rather than a direct basis for long positions.
Overall cross-asset conclusion: the U.S. Dollar Index (100.97) has pulled back, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (5.18%) remains high, so real interest rate pressure on precious metals persists; the 3-year low gold-silver ratio limits silver's further excess returns relative to gold, resulting in neutral cross-asset-driven momentum for SHFE Silver's unilateral trend, with price direction more dependent on its own inventory and funding structure.
五、 Sentiment & Public Opinion Monitoring
There are no valid records for China-related headlines (market=CN, asset=SILVER) in the past 48 hours, with no quantifiable media bias samples available, so sentiment scores cannot be directly derived from public opinion data; internal market indicators are used instead. The alternative metrics are: ^VIX at 14.87, down 5.11% on the day, indicating moderately optimistic risk appetite; ^VXSLV at 35.99, unchanged on the day, with silver's own volatility expectations remaining high; COT crowding (crowd) at 55.01, in the neutral to high range. The combination points to a divergent state of “stable macro sentiment, tense variety sentiment”.
From price action, the single-day decline of 3.24% on September 24 was accompanied by an increase in trading volume of 208171 lots (higher than 180102 lots on September 23 and 158657 lots on September 22), and open interest (OI) rose to 246698 lots. This represents a decline on increased volume with rising open interest, reflecting active short position additions rather than mere long position liquidation, indicating short-term bearish sentiment. However, it should be noted that after a decline on increased volume, if S1 (15494 CNY) holds, it often corresponds to the end of sentiment venting. Overall sentiment judgment: short-term bearish, medium-term neutral; in the absence of public opinion catalysts, prices are more likely to be driven by inventory and interest rate data.
VI. Historical Statistical Patterns
Using available historical percentile and range metrics to map current prices: The gold-silver ratio of 66.68 is at the 54.37th percentile of the 1-year range and the 18.12th percentile of the 3-year range, forming a structure of “medium short-term level, low long-term percentile”. Historically, this combination often corresponds to the mid-to-late stage of silver's relative strength versus gold, reducing the odds of further downside in the ratio. For SHFE Silver specifically, the closing price of 15661 CNY/t is at the lower bound of the 20-day range (15285 to 17388 CNY/t), with a channel position of approximately 17.9%, placing it at the lower end of the range; it is only 376 CNY away from L20, less than one ATR14 (489.57 CNY/t), meaning limited energy required for a downside breakout, but a confirmed range breach would occur once the breakout is realized.
Historical positioning from risk metrics: DD52w is 51.43%, indicating the current price still has over 50% pullback space from the 52-week high, meaning silver remains in a deep recovery process on an annual basis; DD20d is 6.98%, with mild short-term pullback; Vol20 is 33.27%, with volatility at a historically high level; Sharpe30 is 0.1443, with near-30-day risk-adjusted returns close to zero, reflecting low historical win rates for trend-following strategies.
Comprehensive historical statistics: The current price is at the lower bound of the 20-day range, with deep annual pullback, high volatility, and low Sharpe ratio, showing statistical characteristics of a “mean reversion window at the lower range boundary”. However, confirmation conditions must be based on the performance of S1 and L20, and heavy directional bets are not advisable prior to a confirmed breakout.
VII. Long-Short Game Deduction
Bullish arguments: First, the closing price of 15661 CNY/t is close to S1 (15494 CNY/t), only 376 CNY away from the 20-day low of 15285 CNY/t, with dense support below, resulting in a relatively favorable risk-reward ratio at the current level; second, the gold-silver ratio of 66.68 is at the 18.12th percentile of the 3-year range, with limited further downside space for the ratio per mean reversion logic, and silver's relative strength versus gold remains intact; third, COT net long positions of 13,309 contracts increased by 185 contracts from the prior week, with crowding indicator falling from 58.85 on September 8 to 55.01, indicating bullish crowding pressure is being released rather than accumulated; fourth, COMEX registered inventory decreased from 3,005,531.2 kg to 2,994,645 kg, tightening deliverable supply, while the U.S. Dollar Index (100.97) dropped 0.32% in a single day, providing marginal support.
Bearish arguments: First, the closing price broke below both MA5 (16043.8 CNY/t) and MA20 (16032.3 CNY/t), with moving averages turning bearish; on September 24, price fell with volume and open interest rose to 246,698 contracts, with shorts actively building positions; second, SHFE warehouse warrants of 1,443,896 kg have accumulated continuously (up 4,494 kg on September 23, up 1,753 kg on September 24), reflecting loose supply fundamentals in China's spot market; third, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stands at a high of 5.18%, with real rates raising holding costs; fourth, the term structure CONTANGO RY is -5.02%, with the forward market signaling tight immediate supply, and ^VXSLV at 35.99 indicating high volatility risk, making rebounds vulnerable to selling pressure.
Short-medium term power balance: In the short term (1-5 days), bears dominate, with price below pivot P (15747 CNY/t) and under moving average pressure, but approaching S1 support; further downside would require additional negative catalysts. In the medium term (2-4 weeks), longs and shorts tend to balance, with low gold-silver ratio and onshore-offshore inventory divergence providing downside buffers, while high interest rates and rising SHFE warehouse warrants cap upside. Overall, the probability of short-term weak consolidation and medium-term range repair is relatively higher, with key trigger points for directional selection hinging on the performance of S1 and L20.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Core strategy: Long position. Entry at 15494 CNY/t (near S1), stop-loss at 15004 CNY/t, target at 16473 CNY/t, time horizon of 1-5 trading days, position size recommended not exceeding 15% of total capital. Entry rationale: Price is close to S1 and only 376 CNY away from the 20-day low of 15285 CNY/t, with dense support below; the 3-year low gold-silver ratio and declining COT crowding provide medium-term buffers; if price stabilizes above S1, there is room for repair toward MA20 (16032.3 CNY/t) and the gap above. The stop-loss at 15004 CNY/t is 490 CNY from entry, equivalent to ATR14 (489.57 CNY/t), and the target at 16473 CNY/t corresponds to a risk-reward ratio of approximately 2.0.
Invalidation conditions: If price closes with a valid breakdown below S1 (15494 CNY/t) and further breaches the 20-day low of 15285 CNY/t, the lower range boundary is opened, invalidating the long thesis; exit to the sidelines and re-evaluate only after price re-stabilizes above P (15747 CNY/t). The reverse scenario is only used as an invalidation condition, with no separate reverse strategy.
Risk management: Single-trade risk controlled within 1.5% of total capital; if price fails to stabilize above S1 after entry and repeatedly tests the level, voluntarily reduce position size by half; the target of 16473 CNY/t is near MA20 and previous dense trading zone, so partial take-profit is recommended. Continuously track changes in SHFE warehouse warrants and U.S. Treasury yields; if warehouse warrants accelerate accumulation or the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield further rises above 5.18%, lower the target expectation.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
- Beijing 2026-09-28 Mon 09:30 / New York 2026-09-27 Sun 21:30 [CNY/MEDIUM] Industrial Profits ytd/y
- Beijing 2026-09-30 Wed 09:30 / New York 2026-09-29 Tue 21:30 [CNY/HIGH] Manufacturing PMI Forecast:50.1 Previous:49.8
- Beijing 2026-09-30 Wed 09:30 / New York 2026-09-29 Tue 21:30 [CNY/HIGH] Non-Manufacturing PMI Forecast:49.3 Previous:49.0
- Beijing 2026-09-30 Wed 09:45 / New York 2026-09-29 Tue 21:45 [CNY/HIGH] RatingDog Manufacturing PMI Forecast:51.7 Previous:51.5
- Beijing 2026-09-30 Wed 09:45 / New York 2026-09-29 Tue 21:45 [CNY/HIGH] RatingDog Services PMI Forecast:51.2 Previous:51.4
- Beijing 2026-09-30 Wed 21:45 / New York 2026-09-30 Wed 09:45 [USD/MEDIUM] Chicago PMI SEP Forecast:51.3 Previous:47.1
- Beijing 2026-10-01 Thu 07:01 / New York 2026-09-30 Wed 19:01 [CNY/LOW] Bank Holiday
- Beijing 2026-10-01 Thu 22:00 / New York 2026-10-01 Thu 10:00 [USD/MEDIUM] ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast:55.0 Previous:54.6
- Beijing 2026-10-02 Fri 07:01 / New York 2026-10-01 Thu 19:01 [CNY/LOW] Bank Holiday
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.