一、Price Action & Technical Analysis
As of the close on September 24, 2026, the main continuous contract of SHFE.Rebar (SHFE.RB) closed at 3118 CNY/t, up 0.03% from the previous day, with a cumulative increase of approximately 0.71% over the last 5 trading days (from 3096 CNY/t on September 18 to 3118 CNY/t on September 24). The 20-day high is 3203 CNY/t, and the 20-day low is 3081 CNY/t. The current closing price is at the 37.7th percentile of the 20-day range (calculated based on a range width of 122 CNY/t), located below the midpoint.
In terms of moving average structure, the 5-day moving average is 3111.6 CNY/t, the 20-day moving average (MA20) is 3134.9 CNY/t, and the closing price of 3118 CNY/t is approximately 16.85 CNY/t below MA20, a discount of about 0.54%, marking the third consecutive day closing below MA20. The short-term moving average group shows a bearish alignment but with a slowing slope. The 14-period Average True Range (ATR14) is 29 CNY/t, a direct reflection of recent volatility compression, with intraday high-low point spreads generally in the 20-30 CNY/t range. On September 24, the pivot point P is 3112.7 CNY/t, first resistance R1 is 3125.3 CNY/t, and first support S1 is 3105.3 CNY/t. The closing price is slightly above the pivot point, in a weak equilibrium state.
In terms of key levels, the upper resistance levels are sequentially 3125.3 CNY/t (R1), 3134.9 CNY/t (MA20), and 3203 CNY/t (20-day high); the lower support levels are sequentially 3105.3 CNY/t (S1) and 3081 CNY/t (20-day low). If the price can hold above 3125 CNY/t and break through MA20 with volume, it is expected to open up a repair space toward the 3165-3180 CNY/t range; if it falls below 3105 CNY/t and confirms the close, it may retest the previous low of 3081 CNY/t for support. The current price is at the end of a converging triangle, with a directional choice approaching.
二、Fundamental Drivers
At the macro interest rate and exchange rate level, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) stood at 100.97 on September 25, down 0.32%, having weakened for two consecutive days, creating marginal positive momentum for commodities priced in U.S. dollars. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (^TNX) is at 5.18%, up 0.43%, remaining at a high level. Elevated real rates weigh on risk asset valuations, but as a China-priced commodity, SHFE.Rebar has limited direct transmission from U.S. Treasury yields, with more indirect influence via sentiment and risk appetite.
In terms of China's policy and demand expectations, China's Manufacturing PMI (expected 50.1, previous 49.8) and Non-Manufacturing PMI (expected 49.3, previous 49.0) will be released on September 30. RatingDog forecasts Manufacturing PMI at 51.7 (previous 51.5) and Services PMI at 51.2 (previous 51.4). If the official Manufacturing PMI rises above the 50 boom-bust line as expected, it indicates a marginal recovery in manufacturing sentiment, supporting expectations for downstream demand for SHFE.Rebar (construction, infrastructure, machinery); if it falls short of expectations, the market will reprice the quality of the “Golden September, Silver October” peak season.
On the supply side, international headlines in the last 48 hours show that ArcelorMittal suspended production at its Kryvyi Rih steel mill due to Russian attacks, creating regional disturbances to global steel supply, but with limited direct impact on China's SHFE.Rebar supply-demand pattern, more reflected in sentiment. In China, current open interest stands at 1,615,888 lots, up 8,724 lots from the previous day, indicating a mild rebound in capital participation, but trading volume of 570,630 lots has shrunk significantly from 884,858 lots on September 18, reflecting strong pre-holiday wait-and-see sentiment.
三、Positioning & Fund Flows
In terms of open interest, total open interest on September 24 was 1,615,888 lots, up 8,724 lots from 1,607,164 lots on September 23, an increase of approximately 0.54%, rising for two consecutive days. Combined with the slight price increase and shrinking trading volume, the open interest build-up has limited upward momentum, with both long and short positions establishing positions in the 3110-3120 CNY/t range, lacking a dominant force.
From the rhythm of open interest changes, the open interest of 1,642,367 lots on September 18 was a recent high, then fell to 1,589,847 lots over the next three trading days (September 22), and rebounded to 1,615,888 lots over September 23-24, indicating some capital attempting to build positions near 3100 CNY/t, but overall positions remain below the September 18 level, with mild capital inflow.
In terms of volatility, the international reference ^VIX is at 14.87, down 5.11%, reflecting a rebound in global risk appetite, but China's black series is dominated by its own supply-demand and policy rhythm, with limited transmission. ATR14 is at 29 CNY/t, at a recent low. If volatility amplifies after PMI data is released, a daily fluctuation range of 30-50 CNY/t may occur, requiring attention to the breakout direction.
四、Cross-Asset Relative Value
Within the black series, the price ratio between SHFE.Rebar and its upstream raw materials is an important window to observe steel mill profits and production willingness.
Across markets, the weaker U.S. Dollar Index (100.97, -0.32%) provides marginal support for non-ferrous metals priced in U.S. dollars such as copper and aluminum. International headlines in the last 48 hours show broad declines in international metals, with LME tin up over 1% and LME zinc down nearly 2%, indicating clear differentiation in non-ferrous metals. As a China-priced commodity, SHFE.Rebar has limited direct linkage with macro ratios such as copper-gold and oil-gold, with more indirect transmission via the “China demand expectations — macro sentiment — black series valuation” chain. If the U.S. dollar remains weak, the overall commodity valuation center is expected to rise, creating mild positive momentum for SHFE.Rebar; if the U.S. dollar rebounds, the black series' rebound space will be limited.
五、Sentiment & Public Opinion Monitoring
China-related headlines in the last 48 hours focus on non-ferrous metals, with SMM reporting “gold, silver and oil weekly declines, broad international metal declines, LME tin up over 1%, LME zinc down nearly 2%, U.S. stocks rising”. Overall commodity sentiment is neutral to slightly bearish, but SHFE.Rebar is not directly mentioned, with the black series sentiment remaining relatively independent. Another headline is “Peru's Mining Minister: Peru's copper production is expected to reach 250-270 million tons this year”, copper supply-side information with no direct transmission to SHFE.Rebar.
Internationally, ArcelorMittal's suspension of production at the Kryvyi Rih steel mill is a supply-side contraction event, sentimentally bullish for steel prices, but highly regional with limited impact on China's domestic market. Overall, current market sentiment is in a wait-and-see window “waiting for PMI guidance”, with no strong catalysts from either long or short sides, and sentiment remaining in the neutral range.
六、Historical Statistical Patterns
From the 20-day range positioning, the current closing price of 3118 CNY/t is at the 37.7th percentile of the 20-day high-low range (3081-3203 CNY/t), below the midpoint of 3162 CNY/t, belonging to the middle-lower part of the range. Over the last 5 days, the price rebounded from 3096 CNY/t (September 18) to 3118 CNY/t, with a cumulative increase of 0.71%, but has not yet recovered the 1.02% single-day decline on September 18, indicating weak rebound momentum.
From the moving average deviation, the closing price is approximately 16.85 CNY/t below MA20, a deviation of about 0.54%, less than 1 times the ATR14 (29 CNY/t), belonging to a mild discount state. Using ATR14 as the volatility unit, the current price is approximately 2.93 times ATR14 away from the 20-day high of 3203 CNY/t, with closer lower support, meaning relatively limited short-term downside space.
From the historical combination of open interest and price, an open interest build with shrinking volume and slight rise usually indicates increased long-short divergence but no clear direction. Subsequently, a volume-driven breakout above 3125 CNY/t will confirm a short-term bottom; a volume-driven breakdown below 3105 CNY/t may accelerate a retest of 3081 CNY/t.
七、Long-Short Game Deduction
Bullish logic: First, the U.S. Dollar Index weakened to 100.97, providing marginal support for commodity valuations; second, the Manufacturing PMI is expected to reach 50.1 on September 30, with demand expectations recovering if it rises above the boom-bust line; third, ArcelorMittal's production suspension, though regional, strengthens the global steel supply contraction narrative; fourth, open interest has rebounded for two consecutive days, with capital attempting to build positions near 3100 CNY/t; fifth, ATR14 compressed to 29 CNY/t, low volatility often signals an approaching directional choice, with greater elasticity if breaking upward.
Bearish logic: First, the closing price has discounted MA20 for three consecutive days, with moving average pressure effective; second, trading volume shrank from 884,858 lots to 570,630 lots, with pre-holiday liquidity contraction lacking volume support for the rebound; third, the high U.S. Treasury yield of 5.18% suppresses global risk appetite; fourth, the Non-Manufacturing PMI expected at 49.3 remains below the boom-bust line, with weak demand expectations for construction and infrastructure; fifth, the 20-day high of 3203 CNY/t is far from the current price, with heavy hedging pressure above.
Short-medium term force comparison: In the short term (1-5 days), long and short sides are in weak equilibrium, with the 3105-3125 CNY/t range as the core contested area, and PMI data is the key variable breaking the balance; in the medium term (1-4 weeks), if PMI confirms recovery, the price is expected to repair toward the 3165-3200 CNY/t range; if PMI falls short of expectations, it may retest 3081 CNY/t or even 3050 CNY/t. The current pattern slightly favors “bearish factors have peaked, bullish factors await verification”.
八、Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Core strategy: Buy on retracement. If the price retests near 3105 CNY/t and stabilizes (intraday does not break below 3095 CNY/t), enter a light long position with a test at 3105 CNY/t, stop-loss at 3075 CNY/t, target at 3165 CNY/t, with a risk-reward ratio of approximately 2.0, holding period of 1-5 trading days, and position size not exceeding 15% of total capital.
Invalidation conditions: If the price breaks below 3095 CNY/t and confirms the close, exit the long position and wait on the sidelines; if the price directly breaks through MA20 (3135 CNY/t) with volume and holds, consider chasing long, but re-evaluate entry and stop-loss levels. Liquidity may further shrink in the last two pre-holiday trading days (September 29-30), so control positions and avoid holding heavy positions over the holiday.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
- Beijing 2026-09-28 Mon 09:30 / New York 2026-09-27 Sun 21:30: China Industrial Profits YoY
- Beijing 2026-09-30 Wed 09:30 / New York 2026-09-29 Tue 21:30: China Manufacturing PMI (expected 50.1, prior reading 49.8)
- Beijing 2026-09-30 Wed 09:30 / New York 2026-09-29 Tue 21:30: China Non-Manufacturing PMI (expected 49.3, prior reading 49.0)
- Beijing 2026-09-30 Wed 09:45 / New York 2026-09-29 Tue 21:45: RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (expected 51.7, prior reading 51.5)
- Beijing 2026-09-30 Wed 09:45 / New York 2026-09-29 Tue 21:45: RatingDog Services PMI (expected 51.2, prior reading 51.4)
- Beijing 2026-09-30 Wed 21:45 / New York 2026-09-30 Wed 09:45: Chicago PMI (expected 51.3, prior reading 47.1)
- Beijing 2026-10-01 Thu 07:01 / New York 2026-09-30 Wed 19:01: Bank of China Holiday
- Beijing 2026-10-01 Thu 22:00 / New York 2026-10-01 Thu 10:00: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (expected 55.0, prior reading 54.6)
- Beijing 2026-10-02 Fri 07:01 / New York 2026-10-01 Thu 19:01: Bank of China Holiday
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.