I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias
Directional conclusion: Bearish. Three core reasons: First, the price structure is weak — the September 30 settlement was 2,332 CNY/t, with a 5-day change of -1.27% and a 20-day change of -0.26%, sitting at the 34.7% position of the 20-day channel of 2,275–2,442; the rebound has not changed the fact that price is running along the lower edge of the channel. Second, the positioning structure does not support upside — main contract open interest stood at 621,332 lots, down 5,933 lots on the day, with main contract notional open interest at CNY 14.50 billion, down CNY 138 million on the day; the day's +1.52% gain accompanied by an open interest cut is characteristic of short covering rather than proactive long accumulation. Third, the seat structure is bearish — the top 20 seats showed a net short of 72,817 lots, widening by 14,870 lots versus the prior reading, indicating rising short concentration. Invalidation condition: if the settlement price effectively closes above pivot R1 at 2,353.3 CNY/t and main contract open interest turns to an increase, the bearish call is invalidated and the stance should shift to neutral/watch.
II. Price Action & Technicals
Measured on a settlement basis, CZCE.RM Rapeseed Meal settled at 2,332 CNY/t on September 30, up +1.52% versus the prior trading day's settlement, but the medium-term picture has not repaired: the 5-day change is -1.27% and the 20-day change is -0.26%, indicating this rebound has only recouped part of the decline of the past several sessions, while the 20-day dimension remains a net pullback. The 20-day channel top is 2,442 and the bottom is 2,275; the current settlement sits at the 34.7% position of the channel, in the lower portion of the channel, having neither touched the bottom nor returned above the midline.
On volatility, ATR14 is 48.1 CNY/t, equivalent to a 2.06% intraday full range, and RV20 is 24.5%; both sit in a neutral-to-elevated range, meaning single-day noise is large and short-term directional signals need to be confirmed on a settlement basis rather than intraday prices. On the pivot framework, P is 2,330.7, R1 is 2,353.3, and S1 is 2,310.3; the current settlement of 2,332 CNY/t sits almost exactly on pivot P, but the distance from R1 to the current price is about 21 CNY and from S1 to the current price about 22 CNY, both less than half an ATR14 (about 24 CNY); therefore R1/S1 are not effective as trading levels on the daily scale, and reference should instead be made to the outer channel boundaries or prior highs/lows.
On the weekly timeframe, only the last closed weekly bar (2026-09-21 to 2026-09-24) can be cited: open 2,355, high 2,377, low 2,328, close 2,360, weekly change +0.13%, a narrow consolidation pattern, with the high of 2,377 serving as the near-term upside resistance reference. This week (from 2026-09-28) has not yet closed, currently printing 2,333, -1.14%, and does not constitute a weekly conclusion. Chinese instruments require attention to the night session: if the night session chops around 2,330 and fails to hold above 2,350, the weak daily structure persists.
III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers
First, cost and substitution transmission. The core anchor for rapeseed meal pricing is the imported rapeseed crushing chain and its spread to soybean meal, while soybean meal in turn is driven by U.S. soybeans and the imported soybean crush margin on the board. This dataset does not provide specific figures for the imported soybean board crush margin or the soybean meal–rapeseed meal spread, so no directional conclusion is drawn on intra-oilseed meal spreads; it is only noted that, absent crush profit and basis data, the evidential weight for a directional call should rest more on price structure and positioning structure than on fundamental sub-components.
Second, macro transmission. The U.S. dollar index DXY printed 101.46, +0.09%, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield 5.293, +0.72%; the dollar and Treasury yields are firming in tandem, exerting mild pressure on USD-denominated agricultural import costs and transmitting bearishly to Chinese oilseed meal valuations via the import cost channel.
Third, demand-side seasonality. Early October marks the tail end of the peak aquaculture season, and rapeseed meal feed demand typically declines from its highs; this seasonal direction is consistent with the current bearish price structure and serves as supporting evidence for the bearish call.
Taken together, the fundamental sub-component data are insufficient to support an independent bullish thesis, while the two available macro clues (firm dollar and Treasury yields) and seasonality (declining aquaculture demand) both point bearish, resonating in the same direction as price and positioning structure.
IV. Positioning & Fund Flows
Main contract notional open interest was CNY 14.50 billion, a daily change of -CNY 138 million; corresponding main contract open interest was 621,332 lots, down 5,933 lots on the day, while the day's settlement price rose +1.52%. On a futures basis, price rising alongside falling open interest is characteristic of short covering, not proactive long accumulation. The implication of this combination is that this rebound was driven by short liquidation, lacking fresh long capital to absorb it, and the durability of a rebound is typically weaker than that of an open-interest-building advance.
On seat structure, the top 20 seats held 892,228 long lots, down 30,206 lots, and 965,045 short lots, down 45,076 lots, for a net short of 72,817 lots, widening by 14,870 lots versus the prior reading. Both sides reduced positions, but shorts cut by more than longs, yet the net short still widened, indicating a stronger willingness among longs to exit; at the seat level there is no sign of concentrated short retreat.
On the volatility dimension, ATR14 is 48.1 (2.06%) and RV20 is 24.5%.
The conclusion on fund flows is: the capital character of the day's rebound is weak, and the seat-level net short has widened; together these weaken the capital base for a further short-term push higher, supporting the bearish call.
V. Cross-Asset & Onshore-Offshore Value
The available cross-asset clues come from the macro side: the U.S. dollar index DXY at 101.46, +0.09%, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 5.293, +0.72%. A firmer dollar and Treasury yields in tandem typically correspond to marginal tightening of global dollar liquidity and pressure on commodity valuations, constituting a mildly bearish external environment for the import-dependent oils and oilseeds complex.
It should be emphasized that rapeseed meal, as a crushing-chain instrument, should have its international vs China relationship measured by the imported soybean/rapeseed board crush margin, rather than directly by a relative-value premium;
VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality
The only available time-dimension information is the price structure itself: the last closed weekly bar (2026-09-21 to 2026-09-24) closed at 2,360, weekly change +0.13%, a narrow consolidation; the first 3 trading days of this week currently print 2,333, -1.14%, with price pulling back from near the upper edge of the consolidation range. This pattern is consistent with the qualitative seasonal direction of “peak season tail, marginally weakening demand,” but lacks statistical sample support, so it serves only as an auxiliary reference and does not constitute a core basis.
Absent seasonal statistics, the evidential weight for the directional call should rely more on the three available clues: price structure (34.7% position of the 20-day channel), positioning structure (open interest cut on a rise, widening net short), and macro transmission (firm dollar and Treasury yields).
VII. Scenario Analysis
Base case (55% probability, bearish direction): Trigger conditions are price chopping around 2,330 and then failing to effectively hold above pivot R1 at 2,353.3, with main contract open interest continuing to decline or only marginally recovering. In this scenario, price moves toward the 20-day channel bottom at 2,275, with the first target referenced near 2,310 (outside S1) and the second target at 2,275 (20-day channel bottom). Corresponding action: favor selling rallies, do not chase shorts, wait for a rebound into the 2,345–2,355 zone to scale in.
Bullish scenario (20% probability): Trigger conditions are a settlement price effectively closing above R1 at 2,353.3 accompanied by main contract open interest turning from a decline to an increase, i.e., proactive long accumulation. In this scenario, price could test the prior closed weekly bar's high of 2,377, with a further look toward the 20-day channel top at 2,442. Corresponding action: if an open-interest-building breakout is confirmed, close shorts and move to the sidelines rather than immediately flipping long, waiting for a pullback confirmation.
Bearish acceleration scenario (25% probability): Trigger conditions are price breaking below S1 at 2,310.3 accompanied by rising open interest (proactive short accumulation), or the dollar index and Treasury yields firming further to create external pressure. In this scenario, price will directly test the 20-day channel bottom at 2,275, and a breach of the bottom opens greater downside. Corresponding action: after a break below 2,310, lower the short target to 2,275 and trail the stop-loss lower.
The three scenario probabilities sum to 100%, and the base case direction is consistent with the bearish conclusion in Section I.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
Strategy One (primary strategy, bearish): Scale into shorts in the 2,345–2,355 zone (near pivot R1 at 2,353.3), entry reference 2,350, stop-loss placed above 2,377 (outside the prior closed weekly bar's high), a stop width of about 27 CNY, which is more than half an ATR14 (48.1) but less than one ATR14 from entry; therefore in practice the stop should be widened to 2,380 to match volatility; first target 2,310, second target 2,275. Horizon 1–5 trading days, position size recommended no more than 15% of total capital, conviction 6.
Strategy Two (alternative, bearish acceleration): If price breaks below S1 at 2,310.3 and main contract open interest turns to an increase, add shorts with the trend below 2,310, entry reference 2,305, stop-loss placed at 2,330 (above pivot P), target 2,275. Horizon 1–3 trading days, position size recommended no more than 10% of total capital, conviction 5.
Risk management points: ATR14 is 48.1 CNY/t, intraday noise is large, so stop-losses must be placed outside effective levels with a buffer of about 1 ATR; if the settlement price closes above 2,353.3 with rising open interest, handle per the invalidation condition in Section I and exit all shorts.
9. This Week's Data Calendar
At 20:30 Beijing time on October 2, the US average hourly earnings MoM (expected 0.3%, prior 0.3%), nonfarm payrolls change (expected 89K, prior 162K), and unemployment rate (expected 4.1%, prior 4.1%) will be released; at 22:00 on October 5, the US ISM Services PMI (expected 54, prior 55.4) will be released; at 04:30 on October 7, the API crude oil inventory change will be released, and at 22:30, the EIA crude oil and gasoline inventory changes will be released; at 02:00 on October 8, the FOMC meeting minutes will be released. The above events mainly affect commodity valuations through the path of the US dollar and US Treasury yields, with an indirect impact on rapeseed meal.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.