📅 2026-10-08
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Rapeseed · Single-name brief
This report is provided by MacroTerms.com
Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)
菜籽深度报告 | 持仓创一年极值 方向偏空 | 2026-10-08
方向结论：偏空。核心驱动有三：一是主力持仓16717手（+696）处于过去一年100%分位，极端拥挤的多头结构在价格连续回落中缺乏增量买盘承接；二是上一根已收盘周线（09-28至09-30）收5414、周跌1.31%，周线重心下移，反弹在5450–5494区间受阻；三是宏观端美元指数101.85（-0.32%，10-06）与美债十年期5.27%（-0.79%，10-06）虽边际走弱，但对菜籽的直接传导有限，无法对冲产业端压力。方向失效条件：若结算价有效站上5494（上一根已收盘周线高点）并伴随持仓继续增加，则空头逻辑作废，转为观望。
This brief is published in Chinese. The English translation is being prepared.
🇺🇸English original - AI-generated research (not machine translation)
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