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データ基準日: 2026-09-30 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

000001.SS (000001.SS) Deep Dive | 2026-10-08 — Neutral: 20-Day Channel Floor Holds, No Edge | 2026-10-08

Call: NEUTRAL on 000001.SS. The last settled print is 3842.2 (settle, 2026-09-30), sitting at the 20.5% position of the 20-day channel (3806.67–3980.
2) after a -2.78% 5D and -3.46% 20D slide, with ATR14 at 39.93 (1.04% of price) and RV20 at 11.2% — a compressed, directionless tape. The last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28–09-30) closed 3842.2, -1.19% w/w, below its open of 3878.41, confirming distribution rather than accumulation, but the 3806.67 weekly low has not been breached. Macro inputs are mixed: US 10-year yield at 5.269 (-0.79%) and DXY at 101.85 (-0.32%) are marginally supportive for CNY assets, while VIX at 15.01 (12th percentile) signals no systemic risk premium. With the report-date bar unfinished and the exchange close stale at 2026-09-30, there is no confirmed trigger in either direction. Invalidation of the neutral stance: a settled break below 3806.67 opens 3741.11 (52W low); a settled reclaim of 3980.2 restores the upside. No directional trade is warranted until one of these levels is settled beyond.