本レポート提供元 MacroTerms.com

データ基準日: 2026-10-06 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | 2026-10-08 — Neutral: Range-Bound Between 86.86 and 91.97 | 2026-10-08

Neutral on WTI Crude (CL=F): the market is range-bound between the 20-day low at 86.86 and the 20-day high at 101.69, with the settle at 89.44 (2026-10-06) sitting in the lower quartile (17.4%) of that channel and no directional catalyst strong enough to break the range. Three reasons: (1) price action is compressed — 5D +0.07%, 20D -0.83%, ATR14 4.42 (4.94% of price), RV20 42.9%, and the last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28–10-02) closed at 91.11 (-1.41% w/w) with the current week unfinished; (2) fundamentals are mixed — crude stocks 427,320 kb are +1.9% vs the 5-year same-week average, but gasoline (-7.4%) and distillate (-13.5%) are tight, and the 3:2:1 crack at 66.18 USD/bbl sits in the 93rd percentile (1Y), supporting refinery demand; (3) positioning is not crowded — managed-money net is 79,592 contracts (netPct 4.24%, 3-year crowding percentile 18.
4), leaving room for either side. Invalidation: a settled break below 86.86 or above 91.97 would shift the bias. No directional trade is recommended while the range holds.