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データ基準日: 2026-10-06 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Cotton (CT=F) Deep Dive | 2026-10-08 — ICE Dec 2026 Bounce Faces 82.46 Pivot Wall | 2026-10-08

Call: Neutral-to-constructive — ICE December 2026 cotton (CT=F) has bounced 2.98% over five sessions to an 81.21 settle, but with the 20-day trend still down 5.92% and the 82.46 pivot (R2) capping, we treat this as a range-repair trade rather than a trend reversal; invalidation is a settle below 79.74 (S2). Three reasons: (1) price sits at the 35th percentile of the 20-day 77.05–88.8 channel, with ATR14 1.992 (2.45% of price) and RV20 28.5% — a wide, mean-reverting tape; (2) the last completed weekly bar (28 Sep–2 Oct) closed at 78.88, down 4.63% w/w, and the current week is unfinished, so no weekly-close confirmation exists; (3) macro is mildly supportive — DXY 101.85 (-0.32%) and US 10-year yield 5.27% (-0.79%) — but the 20-session seasonal window is negative (mean -0.81%, median -0.84%, up 7 of 15 years). Trade the 80.48–82.46 pivots tactically; do not chase.