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データ基準日: 2026-10-06 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish Bias | 2026-10-08

Call: Bearish gold (GC=F) into the next 1–5 sessions, with the view invalidated on a settle back above the 20-day channel top at 4479.9 or a decisive reclaim of pivot R2 4258.43. Three reasons. First, price structure is weak: the 20D change is -5.67% and the settle of 4187.1 (2026-10-06) sits at only the 16th percentile of the 20-day 4130.7–4479.9 channel, with the last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28–10-02) down 3.68% w/w to 4162.3. Second, positioning is crowded long: managed-money net was 120,318 lots on 2026-09-29, netPct 29.6%, a 92.51 three-year percentile, and has fallen four straight weeks — liquidation, not accumulation. Third, the options market is not paying for downside: GVZ 22.97 sits at the 14th 1-year percentile against RV20 of 17%, so hedges are cheap and there is room for a vol expansion lower. The house brief is also short from 4090; we agree on direction but would not chase below the 4130.7 20-day low without a bounce.