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データ基準日: 2026-10-06 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

GF=F (GF=F) Deep Dive | 2026-10-08 — Breakout Above 20-Day High, Bias Long | 2026-10-08

Call: LONG GF=F (feeder cattle), invalidation on a settle back below 332.35 (S1). The prior session settle of 338.18 (2026-10-06) cleared the prior 20-day high at 336.88, putting price at the 96.4% position of the 20-day 316.18–339 channel with 5D +2.17% and 20D +3.91% — a fresh-range breakout rather than a mean-reversion bounce. Three supports underpin the call: (1) trend and momentum are aligned, with the settle above pivot P 335.68 and R1 341.5 the next objective; (2) the macro transmission channel is supportive, with the dollar index at 101.85 (-0.32%) and 10-year yields at 5.27% (-0.79%) easing the cost and currency drag on cattle; (3) realized volatility at 20.3% against ATR14 of 5.91 (1.75% of price) means the breakout is being achieved without disorderly range expansion. The report-date bar is unfinished: Asia 2026-10-07 last 336.33 (-0.55% vs settle) is a modest intraday pullback, not a rejection. A settle below 332.35 breaks the pivot structure and voids the call.