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データ基準日: 2026-10-06 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | 2026-10-08 — Long Winter Risk, Curve Still Pays You to Wait | 2026-10-08

Call: Bullish NGX26 (NG=F) from the 3.114 settle (2026-10-06), with invalidation on a settle below the 2.902 20-day low. Three reasons: (1) the curve is in contango of -0.279 M1-M2 (-8.08%), so length is paid to hold rather than penalised, and the front spread is not pricing scarcity; (2) managed-money net length sits at -7.45% of open interest, only the 38th percentile of the last three years, while the CTA proxy is already +74 — the short side is no longer a crowded consensus, so the marginal seller is thinner than the price implies; (3) the seasonal window (same calendar start, next 20 sessions, last 15 years) shows a mean +4.86% and median +5.14%, up in 9 of 15 years, and the last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28–10-02) closed at 3.035 after a -5.89% week, leaving the market coiled below the 3.395 20-day high. The Asia print at 3.236 (+3.92% vs settle) is an unfinished intraday bar, not a close, but it confirms buyers are active above the 3.1007 pivot P. Invalidation: a settle below 2.902. Base case targets 3.395, then 3.6.