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データ基準日: 2026-10-06 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Palladium (PA=F) Deep Dive | 2026-10-08 — Bearish, 20-Day Channel Floor Under Pressure | 2026-10-08

Palladium is a SHORT: the 1174.4 settle (2026-10-06) sits at the 7th percentile of the 20-day 1157.5–1390 channel, 5D -3.24% and 20D -14.22%, and the 2026-10-07 Asia print of 1124.5 (-4.25% vs settle) has already traded through the 20-day low of 1157.5 and through pivot S2 at 1144.47, so the channel floor is being breached rather than defended. The last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28–10-02) closed at 1172.2, -8.13% w/w, with the current week unfinished and therefore carrying no weekly-close signal. ATR14 of 41.68 (3.55% of price) means the 1124.5 Asia level is only about 1.2 ATR below the settle, so a mechanical bounce is possible, but with RV20 at 31.9% and no palladium-specific implied-vol index available, there is no evidence of a volatility-driven floor. Invalidation is a settle back above 1200.47 (pivot R2), which would put price back inside the prior range and neutralize the breakdown. Base case (55%) is a grind toward 1100–1115; bull case (20%) is a short-covering squeeze back to 1200; bear case (25%) is a continuation to 1080.