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データ基準日: 2026-10-06 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Platinum (PL=F) Deep Dive | 2026-10-08 — Bearish Bias, 20D Channel Floor Under Pressure | 2026-10-08

Call: Bearish platinum. The prior settle of 1709.3 (2026-10-06) sits at the 8th percentile of the 20-day 1688.9–1957 channel and just 20.4 points above the channel floor, while the 20-day change of -8.81% and the last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28–2026-10-02, close 1700, -5.43% w/w) confirm a downtrend, not a base. The report-date Asia bar at 1646.4 (-3.68% vs settle, H 1722.4 / L 1616) has already traded through the 20-day low of 1688.9 and through pivot S1 1687.33 and S2 1665.37, so the channel floor is breached intraday, not merely threatened. ATR14 of 56.59 (3.31% of price) means the move is only ~1.1 ATR from settle — large but not climactic — and RV20 of 35.3% with gold implied vol (^GVZ 22.97) at the 14th 1-year percentile argues against paying up for downside optionality here. Invalidation: a settle back above 1758.97 (R2) would negate the bear case. Base case (55%) is a retest of 1616 and then the 52-week low zone at 1510.55; bull case (25%) is a reclaim of 1687–1712; bear tail (20%) is an acceleration toward 1560–1580.