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データ基準日: 2026-10-07 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

RSS3=F (RSS3=F) Deep Dive | 2026-10-08 — Bullish, 20-day channel top in play | 2026-10-08

Call: Bullish RSS3=F, invalidation on a settle below 451.57 (pivot S1) or, more decisively, below the 20-day channel floor at 419.1. Three reasons: (1) price is pressing the top of the 20-day range at 455.3 with the settle at 453 (93.6% of the 20-day channel) after a +4.07% 20-day advance, and the last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28–2026-10-02) closed at 449, only -0.33% w/w, so the uptrend structure is intact; (2) ATR14 of 9.29 (2.05% of price) and RV20 of 18.1% imply orderly, non-panicked trade, with the 5D change of +1.12% confirming steady accumulation rather than a blow-off; (3) the macro backdrop is supportive — DXY at 101.85 (-0.32%) and US 10-year yield at 5.27% (-0.79%) on 2026-10-06, with VIX at 15.01 (12th percentile) signalling low systemic stress. The base case (55%) targets a break above 455.3 toward 460–462 over 1–2 weeks. Bull case (25%) sees 465–470 on a macro catalyst; bear case (20%) risks a pullback to 445–447 if 451.57 fails. Trade the long side with stops beyond 451.57.