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データ基準日: 2026-10-06 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | 2026-10-08 — Base Case Higher Off the 20-Day Floor, 59.99 the Line | 2026-10-08

Call: LONG silver (SI=F, front month SIZ26.CMX) on a 1–3 week horizon, with the trade invalidated on a settle below 59.985, the 20-day low. Three reasons. First, price is basing at the bottom of a well-defined 20-day channel (59.985–68.98, position 17.8%) after a −8.08% 20D drawdown, and the last five settled bars have carved a higher-low sequence from 59.985 to 60.57–60.645. Second, the fundamental floor is firming: COMEX registered silver rose to 102.29 Moz on 2026-10-05 from 101.68 Moz on 2026-10-02, while SHFE warrants sit at 1,490,865 kg as of 2026-09-30 — metal is moving into the visible system, not disappearing, but the build is modest and consistent with restocking rather than surplus. Third, positioning has been flushed: managed-money net fell to 7,614 lots (netPct 7.11%, 3-year crowding percentile 38.93) on 2026-09-29 from 14,386 lots on 2026-09-08, removing the crowded-long overhang that capped the September rally. The 20-session seasonal window is also constructive (median +2.42%, up 9 of 15 years). Invalidation: a daily settle below 59.985.