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データ基準日: 2026-10-07 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

VX=F Deep Dive | Volatility Compression Favors Longs | 2026-10-08

We maintain a bullish stance on the CBOE Volatility Index futures (VX=F) as the current 17.35 settle reflects a compression cycle that historically precedes mean-reversion rallies. The instrument is trading below its 20-day moving average support at 16.4, yet the 5-day decline of -2.53% has exhausted near-term selling pressure, positioning the market for a technical rebound. Our primary thesis rests on three pillars: the extreme compression of the 20-day channel, the divergence between implied and realized volatility metrics, and the structural positioning of market participants who are under-hedged relative to the current macro backdrop. We target a move back toward the 18.083 resistance level, with an invalidation condition defined by a breach of the 16.683 support level. This setup offers a high-probability opportunity to capture volatility expansion as the market digests recent equity stability and prepares for upcoming macro catalysts.