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データ基準日: 2026-10-06 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | 2026-10-08 — Corrective Bounce Within a Broken Trend | 2026-10-08

Call: NEUTRAL — no directional trade; the market is a corrective bounce inside a broken trend, and the level that would flip us bullish is a settle above 512.67 (R1), while a settle below 499.67 (S1) reopens the downside toward 491.33 (S2). Three reasons: first, the prior settle of 508 (2026-10-06) sits in the lower quartile of the 20-day channel (495–544.75, position 26.1%) after a 5D change of -2.68% and a 20D change of -4.78%, so the trend is still down even though the last session gained 2.16%; second, the last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28–2026-10-02) closed at 497.75, down 5.77% w/w, and the current week is unfinished, so no weekly-close conclusion is available; third, the term-structure block is insufficient, leaving no carry signal to justify a directional position. ATR14 is 11.21 (2.21% of price, full daily range) and RV20 is 22.7%, so a stop inside roughly 11 points is noise. Invalidation of the neutral stance: a settle above 512.67 turns the bias long; a settle below 499.67 turns it short.