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データ基準日: 2026-10-06 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybean Oil (ZL=F) Deep Dive | 2026-10-08 — Constructive, but Asia's −2.8% Tests the Call | 2026-10-08

Call: Bullish ZL=F on a 1–5 day horizon, with invalidation on a settle below 68.4 (S2). The prior settle at 69.91 (2026-10-06) sits above the 20-day channel midpoint (58.7% position in a 66.61–72.23 range), the last completed weekly bar closed at 68.62 (+1.15% w/w), and the US crush margin has widened to 2.4657 USD/bu from 2.3101 twenty sessions earlier (1Y percentile 53.17%), which is the fundamental driver that matters most for oil share of crush value. The offset is that the report-date Asia bar is trading 67.98, down 2.76% versus the settle, which is a full ATR14 (1.369, ≈1.96% of price) beyond the prior close and puts the market back inside the prior week's range. Positioning and volatility data are thin in the feed, so conviction is moderate rather than high; the trade is expressed with a stop beyond S2 and a first target at R2, sized to survive a two-ATR adverse excursion. Seasonality for the next 20 sessions is supportive on the median (+2.36%, up 8 of 15 years) but the sample is small and the worst case (−9.5% in 2023) is a reminder that this window is not a free option.