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データ基準日: 2026-10-06 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybean Meal (ZM=F) Deep Dive | 2026-10-08: Bullish Rebound, 344.2 Support Holds | 2026-10-08

Soybean meal (ZM=F) is a LONG. The prior settle of 354.8 (2026-10-06) sits just above the 20-day range low of 344.2, and the early Asia print of 362.2 (+2.09% vs settle) signals buyers are stepping in. The 20-day change is +1.43%, and the 5-day change is -1.17%, indicating a pullback within an uptrend. The US crush margin at 2.4657 USD/bu (1Y percentile 53.17%) is healthy and rising, supporting domestic demand. Seasonality for the next 20 sessions is strongly positive (mean +3.63%, up 10 of 15 years). The invalidation level is a settle below 344.2, which would break the 20-day low and negate the bullish structure. The base case (55%) sees a grind higher toward 376.9; the bull case (25%) targets 380+ on a China demand surprise; the bear case (20%) risks a break below 344.2 on macro headwinds. Positioning is not crowded, and the risk-reward favors longs.