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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-06 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | 2026-10-08 — Constructive Base, LME Draw vs COMEX Stock | 2026-10-08

Call: Bullish copper, invalidation on a settle below 6.509 (the 2026-10-01 low). Three reasons: (1) LME warehouse stock fell 1,925 MT to 242,975 MT on 2026-10-06, a second consecutive draw, while COMEX registered stock held flat at 471,400 short tons on 2026-10-05 — the visible tightness is in the LME leg, not the US leg; (2) the curve is in contango (M1-M2 -0.031, -0.47%), so there is no prompt squeeze, but the roll cost is small and the copper/gold ratio at 1.59 sits in the 97th percentile of its 1-year range, a pro-growth signal; (3) seasonality for the same calendar window over the last 15 years shows a mean +1.46% and median +1.54% over the next 20 sessions, up in 11 of 15 years. Price settled at 6.6495 on 2026-10-06, +0.7% over 5D but -2.55% over 20D, and is trading at 6.673 in early Asia on 2026-10-07, +0.35% versus that settle. The 20-day channel is 6.3445–6.9285, with price at the 52nd percentile — mid-range, not extended. ATR14 is 0.1269 (1.91% of price, full daily range), so stops must sit beyond 6.51 to avoid normal noise. The setup is a range-recovery trade, not a breakout trade.