本报告来源： MacroTerms.com

数据截止: 2026-10-06 · 结算口径: 交易所最终日结算价

ES=F (ES=F) Deep Dive | 2026-10-08 — Breakout Above 20-Day High, Long Bias | 2026-10-08

Call: LONG ES=F, invalidation on a settle below the 20-day high at 7848.5. The prior session settle of 7874 (2026-10-06) broke above the prior 20-day high of 7848.5, confirming a bullish range expansion. Three supports: (1) price is in the top 6% of its 20-day range (pos 93.9%) with 5D +1.84% and 20D +2.52% (settle), and the last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28–10-02) closed at 7777.25, with the current unfinished week already up 1.24% from that close; (2) the VIX at 15.01 (12th percentile) and RV20 at 11.9% show low realized and implied equity volatility, which historically supports trend continuation; (3) seasonality for the next 20 sessions is positive in 13 of 15 years with a median gain of +1.96%. Invalidation: a daily settle below 7848.5 would negate the breakout and shift the bias to neutral. The main risk is a hawkish Fed surprise (Waller speech) or a hot CPI/PPI print from China that could pressure risk assets. We recommend a long position with a stop below the 20-day high and a target near the 7935 pivot (R2).