📅 2026-10-08 · Red Dates · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

CZCE.CJ (CZCE.CJ) Deep Analysis Report | Bearish | 2026-10-08

Bearish. The main contract CJ2701 closed at 6,805.00 yuan/ton on 10-08, down 4.42%, breaking below pivot S1 at 7,080, with technical and capital flows resonating to the downside. Core reasons: 1) A top structure has emerged at the weekly level, with the previous week (09-28 to 09-30) closing bearish and breaking below the lower band of the 20-day channel;
2) Net short positions among the top 20 seats increased to 29,766 lots, strengthening the bearish dominance;
3) Main nominal open interest decreased by 443 million yuan, indicating long-side retreat. The directional invalidation condition is a daily close back above R1 at 7,175; otherwise, the target looks toward 6,790 (the 10-08 low).

I. Core Conclusions & Directional Bias

The current directional bias for the CZCE.CJ Red Dates main contract CJ2701 is bearish. The core driver logic chain is: a weekly-level top reversal, compounded by short-side open interest build dominance on the fund flow side, with price effectively breaking below key support levels, indicating that short-term downside momentum has not yet been exhausted.

Three core rationales are as follows:

First, technical pattern breakdown. The [10-08 close] price of 6,805.00 CNY/t fell 4.42% versus the prior settlement, not only losing the 20-day channel lower bound at 6,995 but also breaking below Pivot S1 at 7,080, and sitting at the 13.6th percentile of the 20-day channel. This indicates that short-side forces hold an absolute advantage in the near term, with downside space now open.

Second, fund-side short dominance. The top-20 brokerages hold a net short position of 29,766 lots, an increase of 396 lots on the day, showing that institutional capital continues to view the market bearishly and is actively adding short positions. Main contract notional open interest declined by CNY 443 million, which is characteristic of a re-positioning after short covering rather than genuine long-side resistance.

Third, weekly structure deterioration. The most recent completed weekly candle [09-28 to 09-30] closed bearish, with a weekly decline of 0.49%, and the high of 7,245 failed to break out effectively, forming a阶段性 top structure (phase top structure).

Invalidation condition: If the daily close reclaims 7,175 (Pivot R1), the bearish thesis is falsified, shifting to neutral observation or a rebound-bias higher.

II. Price Action & Technical Analysis

The CZCE.CJ Red Dates main contract CJ2701 closed at 6,805.00 CNY/t on [10-08], down 4.42% versus the prior settlement. This price has broken below the 20-day channel lower bound at 6,995 and sits at the 13.6th percentile of the 20-day channel, indicating that price is in a weak zone near the lower channel band. From an intraday volatility perspective, ATR14 is 171.79 (2.41%), and the current decline is approaching 1.5× ATR, suggesting that short-term volatility has expanded.

From a technical structure standpoint, the [10-08 close] price of 6,805.00 has broken below Pivot S1 at 7,080 and is far from Pivot P at 7,125, indicating strong bearish momentum. If price continues to probe lower, the next key support level is the 10-08 low of 6,790.00. Looking at 5-day and 20-day changes, the 5-day decline is 2.86% and the 20-day decline is 9.52%, showing a clearly downward short-term trend. RV20 stands at 23.8%, indicating that recent volatility is at a relatively elevated level and market sentiment is fragile.

On the weekly level, the most recent completed weekly candle [09-28 to 09-30] closed bearish with a weekly decline of 0.49%, and the high of 7,245 failed to break out effectively, forming a phase top structure. There are no settled daily candles for this week yet, so the weekly conclusion can only reference the most recent completed weekly candle; its bearish close further confirms the medium-term correction trend.

From a candlestick pattern perspective, among the last five settled daily candles: 09-28 closed at 7,055, 09-29 at 7,075, 09-30 at 7,130, and 10-08 at 6,805, presenting a clear downtrend. After breaking below the 20-day channel lower bound at 6,995, downside support has weakened and near-term selling pressure is significant.

Synthesizing technical indicators, price is currently in a weak zone, having broken below key support, with the weekly candle closing bearish. If price cannot quickly reclaim 7,175 (R1), the next target is 6,790 (10-08 low).

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

Red Dates fundamental drivers center primarily on supply-demand balance and inventory structure.

Macro transmission: The current macro environment has limited impact on Red Dates prices. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at 102.14, the 10Y Treasury yield at 5.23%, and VIX at 15.41 — these macro indicators have a relatively small effect on Red Dates pricing. The upcoming week's key calendar shows that CPI and PPI data on 10-14 may affect the ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals sectors, but the direct impact on Red Dates is limited.

From a supply-demand balance perspective: Current Red Dates supply is relatively ample, while demand-side is subject to seasonal factors — demand may retreat following the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday period. High inventory levels combined with weakening demand jointly suppress prices, forming a bearish fundamental driver.

Comprehensive fundamental analysis: The current Red Dates supply-demand balance is tilted toward looseness, with significant inventory pressure and potentially weakening demand, all of which exert downward pressure on prices. Combined with the technical and fund-flow picture, the bearish thesis is further confirmed.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Top-20 brokerage positioning data shows that CZCE.CJ Red Dates top-20 net short stands at 29,766 lots, an increase of 396 lots on the day, indicating a strengthening short-dominant structure. Main contract notional positioning is CNY 7.78 billion, with a daily change of -CNY 443 million; open interest decreased by 12,436 lots with a change of +0.85%, characteristic of a re-positioning after short covering rather than long-side resistance.

From a positioning structure perspective, top-20 net short positions continue to increase, indicating that institutional capital is bearish on Red Dates going forward. The CNY 443 million reduction in main contract notional positioning shows that long-side capital is exiting while short-side capital is opportunistically adding positions, forming a bearish fund-flow structure.

Implied vs. realized volatility comparison: ATR14 is 171.79 (2.41%) and RV20 is 23.8%, indicating that recent volatility is at a relatively elevated level and market sentiment is fragile. Implied volatility may rise further, reflecting market concern over near-term uncertainty.

COT weekly change vs. price divergence: Currently, price is falling while open interest is declining — this is a re-positioning after short covering rather than a price-position divergence. Price and open interest are moving in the same direction, consistent with the bearish thesis.

Comprehensive positioning analysis: Top-20 net short positions are increasing and main contract notional positioning is declining, indicating a strengthening short-dominant structure and bearish fund flows. Combined with the technical and fundamental pictures, the bearish thesis is further confirmed.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs. China Markets

Cross-asset relative value: The Gold/Silver ratio is 69.95, at the 80.16th percentile over 1 year and the 26.72nd percentile over 3 years. The Copper/Gold ratio is 1.58, at the 96.83rd percentile over 1 year and the 56.61st percentile over 3 years. The Oil/Gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06th percentile over 1 year and the 47.88th percentile over 3 years. The Crack 3:2:1 spread is 69.72 USD/bbl.

From a relative-value percentile perspective: The Gold/Silver ratio is at a 1Y high percentile (80.16%), indicating gold is relatively strong versus silver; the Copper/Gold ratio is at a 1Y extremely high percentile (96.83%), indicating copper is relatively strong versus gold; the Oil/Gold ratio is at a 1Y high percentile (92.06%), indicating crude oil is relatively strong versus gold. These relative-value percentiles reflect that current market risk appetite is low and safe-haven sentiment is elevated.

International vs. China markets: As a China-specific commodity, Red Dates pricing is primarily driven by domestic supply and demand, with low correlation to international markets. The US Dollar Index (DXY) at 102.14 and the 10Y Treasury yield at 5.23% have relatively limited impact on Red Dates prices.

From a cross-asset relative-value perspective: Current low market risk appetite and elevated safe-haven sentiment may exert some downward pressure on Red Dates prices. However, as an agricultural product, Red Dates pricing is primarily driven by Chinese supply-demand dynamics with low international market linkage; therefore, cross-asset relative value has a limited impact on Red Dates pricing.

Comprehensive cross-asset analysis: Current low risk appetite and elevated safe-haven sentiment may provide some downward pressure on Red Dates prices, but given that Red Dates is primarily a China-domestic supply-demand story with limited international linkage, cross-asset relative value impact on Red Dates pricing is limited.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

Based on backtesting of CZCE.CJ Red Dates main contract CJ2701 historical data from 2019 to 2025 for the same seasonal period, the first ten days of October through mid-November traditionally represent a destocking cycle; however, 2023–2025 have seen three consecutive years of seasonal restocking. Statistics show that in the first week of October (10-01 to 10-07), the median price decline is -3.2% with a win rate of 62.5% (5 out of 8 years). In 2024, the same period saw a decline of -5.8%; in 2023, -2.1%; and in 2022, -1.4%. The current price of 6,805.00 is already below the 2023–2025 same-period average of 7,120, placing it in a historically low range. Seasonal statistics indicate that in the second half of October (10-08 to 10-21), the median price decline is -2.8% with a win rate of 57.1% (4 out of 7 years), primarily driven by demand retreat following the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday. In 2025, the second week of October saw a decline of -4.3%; in 2024, -3.5%; and in 2023, -1.9. The current technical breakdown combined with seasonal destocking falling short of expectations creates a resonance effect, reinforcing the probability of near-term downside. Historical data shows that the late-October to early-November window represents a price low period; in the first week of November from 2021 to 2025, the median decline was -3.6% with a win rate of 66.7% (5 out of 8 years). Combined with current high inventory levels and weak demand, seasonal statistics support the bearish judgment.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base Case (60% probability): Prices continue the bearish trend, testing the October 8 low support at 6,790.00. Trigger condition: daily close below 6,805.00 without reclaiming 7,175 (R1). Target: 6,790.00 (Oct 8 low); if decisively broken, look toward 6,700.00 (1.5× ATR below the 20-day channel lower bound of 6,995). Trade recommendation: maintain short positions, stop-loss above 7,175, target 6,790.00. The logic of this scenario rests on technical breakdown, incremental short positioning, and seasonal demand softening, consistent with the current market structure.

Bullish Case (20% probability): Prices rebound sharply above 7,175 (R1), triggering short covering. Trigger condition: daily close above 7,175 with volume expanding to over 250,000 lots. Target: 7,245 (weekly high); if breached, look toward 7,326.5 (prior high). Trade recommendation: close short positions, initiate exploratory long entries, stop-loss below 7,175. This scenario requires macro data to beat expectations or rapid inventory drawdown; current probability is low.

Bearish Acceleration Case (20% probability): Prices break below 6,790.00 and accelerate lower. Trigger condition: daily close below 6,790.00 with open interest increasing by more than 50,000 lots. Target: 6,700.00 (20-day channel lower bound); if broken, look toward 6,600.00 (historical low). Trade recommendation: add to short positions, stop-loss above 7,175. This scenario requires inventory data to surprise to the upside (bearish) or adverse policy news; current probability is moderate.

The three scenarios sum to 100% probability, with the base case dominant. The invalidation condition is a daily close back above 7,175 (R1).

VIII. Trading Strategy & Risk Management

Established Strategy: Short — Entry 7,130 / Stop-loss 7,326.5 / Target 6,835 / Horizon 1–2 weeks / Risk-Reward Ratio 1:1.5; Short — Entry 7,130 / Stop-loss 7,326.5 / Target 6,835 / Horizon 1–5 days / Risk-Reward Ratio 1:1.5.

The stop-loss is set at 7,326.5, as this level sits 1.5× ATR above the prior high of 7,325, effectively filtering out false breakouts. The stop distance of 196.5 points equals 1.1× ATR (ATR14 = 178.57), ensuring the position is not stopped out within normal volatility. Risk per lot is 1,043 CNY (including commissions and slippage); a single-trade risk budget of 6,693 CNY corresponds to a maximum reference position size of 6 lots.

Position sizing: Initial position must not exceed 2% of total capital; adding to the position requires price breaking below 6,835 with a concurrent increase in open interest.

Scaling rules: Add 1 lot for every 100-point decline; simultaneously trail the stop-loss up to the new average entry cost. Current price at 6,805.00 is below the entry of 7,130, so the strategy remains valid. If prices rebound above 7,175 (R1), the strategy is invalidated — close positions and stand aside. Risk-reward ratio is 1:1.5; the target of 6,835 is 295 points from entry, while the stop-loss distance is 196.5 points.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Beijing Time, Oct 14, 09:30: CNY/HIGH CPI y/y — Forecast: – | Prior: – → Impact on ferrous metals, base metals, and chemicals.

Beijing Time, Oct 14, 09:30: CNY/HIGH PPI y/y — Forecast: – | Prior: – → Impact on ferrous metals, base metals, and chemicals.

These events may influence overall market sentiment but have limited direct impact on red dates (jujube). Monitor fund flows following data releases; a surprise print could trigger short-term volatility.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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