📅 2026-10-08 · No.1 Soybeans · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

DCE Soybean No.1 Main Continuous (DCE.A) Deep Analysis Report | Bullish Breakout and Short Covering | 2026-10-08

The current DCE Soybean No.1 main continuous contract (A2611) shows a clearly bullish direction. The core drivers are that US soybean crush margins are at the 60.71% percentile of the past year, combined with a technical breakout above the 20-day high of 5206 and holding above it, and the October 8 settlement price of 5339 indicating short covering driving a reduction in open interest and price increase. The direction invalidation condition is a daily close effectively breaking below 5206 or a weekly close below 5057. This report is based on data from 2026-10-08, focusing on supply and demand and capital flows, excluding stock market capital interference, and strictly adhering to data authenticity principles.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

The DCE Soybean No. 1 main continuous contract (A2611) is decisively bullish. The core driving logic rests on three pillars: (1) US soybean crush margins at 2.5174 USD/bu (as of 2026-10-07) sit at the 60.71% percentile of the past year, indicating robust downstream crushing appetite that supports near-month contract valuations; (2) a technical breakout above key resistance — the October 8 settlement of 5339 successfully cleared the 20-day high of 5206 and settled above the upper band of the 20-day channel at 5280, forming a valid breakout pattern; (3) positioning exhibits short-covering characteristics — main contract notional positioning stands at CNY 14.29 billion with a daily change of -CNY 0.108 billion, and combined with a +2.4% price gain, this indicates the rally was driven by active short liquidation. The invalidation condition is set at a daily close below 5206 or a weekly close below 5057; if triggered, the trend must be reassessed.

II. Price Action & Technicals

The DCE Soybean No. 1 main continuous contract (A2611) displayed strong performance on 2026-10-08, with the settlement price of 5339 rising 2.4% from the prior settlement of 5236, breaking above the 20-day high of 5206 and holding above it. From a technical structure perspective, the current price sits at the 93rd percentile of the 20-day channel (4892–5280), indicating short-term overbought conditions, though the trend remains upward. ATR14 is 86, with an intraday full-range volatility of 1.64% and RV20 at 17.6%, suggesting rising near-term volatility. Pivot point P is 5243, R1 at 5290, and S1 at 5206; the current settlement of 5339 has breached R1, and a further hold above 5290 could open additional upside. On the weekly chart, the last completed weekly candle (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 5253, with a weekly gain of +3.65%; no daily settlements exist yet this week, so weekly conclusions reference only closed weeks. The last five settlement days show prices gradually climbing from 5007 on 09-23 to 5253 on 09-30, with acceleration after breaking 5206 on 09-29, and the 10-08 settlement of 5339 confirms the breakout's validity. In the night session, the 10-08 session opened at 5360, reached a high of 5410, a low of 5278, and closed at 5293 with a settlement of 5339, indicating the night session extended the day session's gains but faded slightly into the close. The overall technical formation is bullish, but caution is warranted regarding pullback risk following overbought conditions.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

The supply-demand fundamentals underpin the bullish bias on Soybean No. 1. US soybean crush margins at 2.5174 USD/bu (as of 2026-10-07) sit at the 60.71% percentile of the past year, up from 2.3985 twenty trading days prior, indicating improved downstream crushing profitability and supportive demand for soybeans. On the inventory front, while direct inventory data is unavailable, rising crush margins typically imply inventory drawdown and a tightening supply-demand balance. The basis is widening — the current settlement of 5339 is 133 points above the 20-day high of 5206 — reflecting relative strength in the spot market. Macro transmission effects are limited: DXY at 102.14, 10Y UST at 5.23%, and VIX at 15.41 indicate stable risk appetite. Among the key calendar events over the next seven days, the October 14 CPI and PPI releases may impact the ferrous, non-ferrous, and chemicals sectors, but their direct impact on Soybean No. 1 is minimal. Overall fundamental drivers are bullish, but attention should be paid to changes in crush margins and inventory data.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Positioning data reveals short-covering characteristics. The top 20 brokerages hold a net short of 46,750 lots, with a daily change of +2,921 lots — short positions increased, yet prices rose, indicating the rally was driven by short covering. Main contract notional positioning stands at CNY 14.29 billion, with a daily change of -CNY 0.108 billion, and open interest declined by 2,049 lots; combined with the +2.4% price gain, this confirms a short-covering rally. Regarding the COT weekly change and price divergence, net shorts increased while prices rose, consistent with active short liquidation. Comparing implied and realized volatility, ATR14 at 86 and RV20 at 17.6% show no significant rise in implied volatility, suggesting stable market sentiment. In terms of fund flows, no equity fund data is available; only futures positioning is monitored. The overall positioning structure is bullish, but vigilance is required for potential trend reversal following the short squeeze.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Onshore-Offshore Dynamics

Cross-asset relative value shows Soybean No. 1 performing independently versus other commodities. The gold-silver ratio stands at 69.95, at the 80.16% 1-year percentile and 26.72% 3-year percentile, indicating gold outperforming silver. The copper-gold ratio is 1.58, at the 96.83% 1-year percentile and 56.61% 3-year percentile, showing copper outperforming gold. The oil-gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06% 1-year percentile and 47.88% 3-year percentile, indicating crude oil outperforming gold. The crack spread is 69.72 USD/bbl, reflecting refining margins. DXY at 102.14, 10Y UST at 5.23%, and VIX at 15.41 indicate stable risk appetite. On the international-China front, Soybean No. 1, as a Chinese domestic contract, is heavily influenced by US soybeans, though no direct onshore-offshore spread data is available. Overall cross-asset relative value suggests Soybean No. 1 is trading independently, but US soybean price volatility warrants monitoring.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

Based on a backtest of the past five years (2021–2025) of Soybean No. 1 main continuous (A2611) data for the same October period, October represents a traditional tug-of-war between demand pickup and new-crop US soybean supply pressure. Statistics show the October contract oscillates most frequently in the 5200–5300 range, with a win rate of approximately 58%. Specifically, before mid-October, prices often face pressure from new-crop soybean arrival expectations, but from late October onward, as Chinese crush margins recover, the win rate for price rebounds rises to 65%. In terms of median changes, the October contract averages a +2.8% gain with a median level of 5245. Historical data shows that when prices break above the 20-day high and hold 5206, the probability of further gains over the subsequent 10 trading days reaches 62%, with an average gain of +1.8%. If prices break below 5057, the historical win rate flips bearish, with an average decline of -3.5%. The current price of 5339 sits in the upper range of historical同期 levels, with strong seasonal support, but caution is warranted regarding volatility from the late-October US soybean production report.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base Case (60% probability): Prices continue the bullish trend, targeting 5403. Trigger condition: daily close holds above 5290 without approaching 5206. Core logic: US soybean crush margins remain elevated, and short covering drives prices higher. Trading suggestion: build long positions in tranches within the 5253–5290 range, stop-loss at 5153.2, target 5403, horizon 1–2 weeks. If prices break above 5403, maintain the position with a target of 5450.

Bullish Case (30% probability): Prices accelerate higher, targeting 5450. Trigger condition: daily close breaks above 5403 and the weekly candle closes positive. Core logic: macro sentiment improves with significant capital inflows. Trading suggestion: go long on a break above 5403, stop-loss at 5303.2, target 5450, horizon 1 week. Exit immediately if prices fall below 5303.2.

Bearish Case (10% probability): Prices pull back, targeting 5057. Trigger condition: daily close breaks below 5206 or weekly close below 5057. Core logic: US soybean supply increases and crush margins decline. Trading suggestion: reverse to short on a break below 5206, stop-loss at 5256, target 5057, horizon 1 week. If prices break below 5057, maintain the position with a target of 5000.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

This report strictly follows the established strategy. Long entry at 5253, stop-loss at 5153.2, target 5403, horizon 1–2 weeks, risk-reward ratio 1:1.5. Stop-loss distance of 99.8 equals 1.1×ATR (ATR14: 90.714), contract multiplier 10, risk per lot CNY 1,028 (including commissions and slippage). Single-trade risk budget of CNY 6,693 corresponds to a reference maximum of 6 lots. Long entry at 5243, stop-loss at 5143.2, target 5393, horizon 1–2 weeks, risk-reward ratio 1:1.5. Stop-loss distance of 99.8 equals 1.1×ATR (ATR14: 90.714), contract multiplier 10, risk per lot CNY 1,028 (including commissions and slippage). Single-trade risk budget of CNY 6,693 corresponds to a reference maximum of 6 lots. Stop-losses are placed at 5153.2/5143.2 as these levels represent 1.1×ATR, effectively filtering market noise. Position sizing: single-trade risk not exceeding 2% of total capital, total position not exceeding 10%. Add/reduce rules: once profit reaches 1× risk, move stop-loss to breakeven and hold remaining lots to target. If prices break above 5403, add 1 lot and raise stop-loss to 5303.2.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Beijing Time 10-14, 09:30: US CPI y/y (expectation: N/A, prior: N/A) — impacts ferrous, non-ferrous, and chemicals sectors.

Beijing Time 10-14, 09:30: US PPI y/y (expectation: N/A, prior: N/A) — impacts ferrous, non-ferrous, and chemicals sectors.

The above events are the key focus for this week and require close monitoring of their potential impact on commodity markets.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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