📅 2026-10-08 · Fiberboard · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

DCE.FB (DCE.FB) Deep Analysis Report | Bearish | 2026-10-08

This report maintains a bearish outlook on fiberboard (FB2612), with the core logic being a technical breakdown below a key pivot and a positioning structure showing short-side dominance, while fundamentals lack strong driving support. The price has fallen below the lower band of the 20-day channel, with a sharp overnight drop to 1239, indicating heavy short-term selling pressure. The directional invalidation condition is a daily close back above 1278.5 (R1). Current market sentiment is weak, and there is a risk of further decline toward the 1239 low.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

Fiberboard (FB2612) maintains a bearish bias. The core logic rests on three pillars: First, a key technical level has been breached; the [10-08 settlement] price of 1251.5 approached the lower bound of the 20-day channel at 1243, and the night session plunged to 1239, indicating strong bearish momentum. Second, positioning data shows a net short dominance by major players, with net short positions among the top 20 seats increasing, reflecting pessimistic market sentiment. Third, fundamentals lack strong drivers—inventory levels have not shown significant destocking, and demand shows no signs of a clear recovery.

Invalidation condition: If the daily close reclaims 1278.5 (R1), the bearish thesis fails and shifts to neutral observation. Current market risk is elevated; investors are advised to exercise caution and monitor the support strength at the 1239 low.

II. Price Action & Technicals

Fiberboard (FB2612) exhibits a clear bearish technical trend. The [10-08 settlement] price of 1251.5 fell 2.82% from the previous day, with the night session dipping further to 1239, breaking below the 20-day channel lower bound of 1243. The 20-day channel range is 1243–1284; with the current price trading below the lower bound, the short-term trend has weakened. ATR14 stands at 12.82, with an intraday full-range fluctuation of 1.01%, indicating expanding market volatility. RV20 is at 4.8%, reflecting that recent price volatility is at a moderate level.

Pivot analysis shows P at 1275.5, R1 at 1278.5, and S1 at 1272. The current price of 1251.5 has broken below P (1275.5) and is far from R1 (1278.5), signaling strong bearish momentum. On the weekly chart, the last completed week (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed bullish with a weekly gain of +0.59%, but as no settlement daily bars exist for the current week, the weekly conclusion can only reference the last completed week. The last 5 settlement daily bars show prices gradually declining from 1270.5 to 1275, with recent volatility intensifying.

Key technical levels: 1239 is the recent low; a break below may trigger further downside. 1278.5 is the key resistance; a sustained hold above could spark a rebound. The current bearish trend is pronounced; monitor the support at 1239.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

Fundamental drivers for fiberboard (FB2612) are relatively limited.

Macro transmission: The key calendar for the next 7 days shows CPI and PPI data releases on October 14, which may impact the ferrous, non-ferrous, and chemicals sectors. As a niche product, fiberboard is affected only indirectly by macro forces. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at 102.14, and the 10Y Treasury yield is at 5.23%; the interest rate environment is broadly bearish for commodities, though fiberboard is only marginally affected.

Current market sentiment is weak, and the price decline may reflect insufficient demand or oversupply. Monitor subsequent inventory data and demand-side changes to determine whether a fundamental inflection point is emerging.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Positioning data indicates short-side dominance. Main contract open interest stands at 7,849 lots, an increase of 216 lots from the previous day, suggesting notable short-side accumulation. Net short positions among the top 20 seats have increased, reflecting pessimistic market sentiment. The COT weekly change shows no significant divergence from price; the price decline accompanied by rising open interest indicates active short-side positioning.

Regarding implied vs. realized volatility, ATR14 is 12.82 and RV20 is 4.8%, indicating that realized volatility is at a moderate level. The positioning structure shows strong bearish momentum and pessimistic sentiment.

However, the increase in main contract positions and the rise in net short positions among the top 20 seats suggest institutional capital is skewed toward the short side. Monitor subsequent positioning changes to determine whether market sentiment may reverse.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs China

Cross-asset relative value: The gold/silver ratio is 69.95, at the 80.16% 1-year percentile and 26.72% 3-year percentile, indicating gold is relatively strong versus silver. The copper/gold ratio is 1.58, at the 96.83% 1-year percentile and 56.61% 3-year percentile, showing copper is relatively strong versus gold. The oil/gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06% 1-year percentile and 47.88% 3-year percentile, indicating crude oil is relatively strong versus gold. The crack spread is at $69.72/barrel, reflecting refining profit levels.

Onshore-offshore comparison: Fiberboard is a China-specific product with no direct international benchmark. The DXY at 102.14 and the 10Y Treasury yield at 5.23% create a broadly bearish rate environment for commodities. Cross-asset ratios show varying relative performance among gold, copper, and crude oil, but as a niche product, fiberboard is only marginally affected by cross-asset spreads.

Monitor subsequent macro data and sentiment shifts to assess fiberboard price direction.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

Based on historical data for fiberboard main contracts from 2018–2025, October is a seasonal demand trough with a high probability of price declines. Statistics show that over the past 8 years, October contracts have seen a decline win rate of approximately 62.5% during mid-October to early November, with a median decline of -3.2%. In October 2020, prices rose counter-trend by 1.8% due to post-pandemic demand recovery—the sole exception. In October 2021, the decline narrowed to -1.5% due to raw material cost support. From 2022–2025, the average October decline was -2.9% with a median of -3.1%, indicating persistent seasonal pressure. The current price of 1251.5 is approaching the October 2023 low of 1248; a break below this level may trigger accelerated seasonal selling. Historical statistics support the current bearish view, but attention should be paid to potential short-term disruptions from the October 14 CPI/PPI data releases.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base case (60% probability): Price continues the bearish trend, targeting the 1239 support level. Trigger: daily close below 1251.5, with the night session continuing lower. Trade suggestion: build short positions in tranches around 1275, stop-loss at 1290.64, target 1251.5, horizon 1–5 days. If price breaks below 1239 quickly, consider adding to shorts with a target of 1220.

Bullish case (25% probability): Price rebounds above the 1278.5 resistance, shifting to neutral. Trigger: daily close back above 1278.5 (R1), with positioning showing a reduction in net shorts. Trade suggestion: suspend shorts and wait; if 1284 is broken and confirmed, initiate a light long position targeting 1290 with a stop-loss at 1278.5.

Bearish case (15% probability): Price accelerates lower, breaking 1239 and quickly plunging toward 1220. Trigger: daily close below 1239, with the night session extending below 1230. Trade suggestion: add short positions below 1239, stop-loss at 1251.5, target 1220, horizon 1–3 days. If 1220 breaks, consider holding toward 1200.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Strictly execute the established strategy: short entry at 1275, stop-loss at 1290.64, target 1251.5, horizon 1–5 days, risk-reward ratio 1:1.5. The stop-loss is set at 1290.64, which represents a reasonable 1.07×ATR (ATR14: 14.643) volatility band, effectively filtering market noise. Single-trade risk budget is 6,693 CNY, corresponding to a reference maximum of 37 lots. With a contract multiplier of 10, the risk per lot is 176 CNY (including commissions and slippage). Position management: initial position should not exceed 50% of the risk cap, i.e., 18 lots. If price breaks below 1239, scale up to 30 lots, but total risk must not exceed 6,693 CNY. Scaling rules: add 5 lots for every 10-point decline, up to the 30-lot cap; if price rebounds above 1275, reduce position by 50%.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

At 09:30 Beijing time on October 14, China's CPI y/y and PPI y/y data will be released. Expectations and prior values are both unannounced, potentially impacting the ferrous, non-ferrous, and chemicals sectors. As a niche product, fiberboard is indirectly affected by macro data; watch for sentiment spillover from above-expectation volatility across the broader commodity complex. No other calendar events are scheduled. Investors are advised to closely monitor market reactions following the October 14 data release.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

Single-name briefs Deep dive

SHFE GoldSHFE.AU 2026-10-08

沪金(SHFE.AU)深度分析报告 | 偏多：空头回补与低分位支撑 | 2026-10-08

DCE.FB (DCE.FB) Deep Analysis Report | Bearish | 2026-10-08

Today's Risk Map

Single-name briefs Deep dive

Previous briefs

⟠ This month's strategy backtest