📅 2026-10-08 · Coking Coal · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

DCE Coking Coal Continuous (DCE.JM) Deep Analysis Report | Bullish | 2026-10-08

The current DCE Coking Coal Continuous (DCE.JM) trend is clearly bullish, primarily supported by a strong price breakout above key resistance accompanied by capital inflows. As of the close on 2026-10-08, the main contract JM2701 settled at 1476 CNY/ton, up 2.07% from the previous trading day's settlement price, firmly establishing itself above the 20-day moving average. Technically, the price broke through the Pivot R1 level (1460.67) while the 5-day decline narrowed, indicating exhaustion of bearish momentum. Fundamentally, despite inventory levels being at a five-year low for the same period, expectations of winter stockpiling by downstream steel mills, combined with potential macroeconomic policy benefits, support a valuation recovery in the black metal sector. The trend invalidation condition is a daily close effectively below the key support level of 1441, at which point the trend must be reassessed.

I. Core Conclusions & Directional Bias

The directional bias for DCE coking coal main continuous (DCE.JM) is clearly bullish. Based on the 2026-10-08 closing data, the main contract JM2701 settled at 1,476 CNY/t, up 2.07% versus the previous trading day's settlement price, successfully breaking above the 20-day moving average and the pivot R1 resistance level. The technical pattern exhibits a strong reversal characteristic. Three core drivers underpin this view: First, on the price structure, the lower band of the 20-day channel at 1,433 CNY/t received effective support, and the 5-day decline narrowed from -4.58% to the current rebound, indicating the release of short-term oversold recovery demand. Second, on the fund flow side, although the main nominal position decreased by 1.412 billion CNY day-over-day, the top-20 seats maintained a net long of 14,399 lots, suggesting that industry capital continues to hold long allocations at key levels, with short covering driving prices higher. Third, fundamental inventories are at a five-year seasonal low, and with winter stocking expectations approaching, supply-demand mismatch risk supports valuation recovery. The invalidation condition is set at a daily close effectively below the 1,441 CNY/t key support level; a breach would imply a failed breakout and a potential return to range-bound decline.

II. Price Action & Technicals

As of the 2026-10-08 close, DCE coking coal main continuous (DCE.JM) main contract JM2701 settled at 1,476 CNY/t, up 2.07% from the previous settlement price of 1,449 CNY/t. Technically, price has broken above the 20-day moving average (1,433 CNY/t) and pivot R1 (1,460.67 CNY/t), establishing a foothold above key resistance. The 20-day channel range is 1,433–1,763.5 CNY/t, with current price positioned 4.8% above the lower band, indicating entry into an ascending channel following short-term oversold recovery. ATR14 stands at 51.93 CNY/t, with an intraday full-range volatility of 3.58%, suggesting elevated market activity. The 5-day decline has narrowed from -4.58%, while the 20-day decline stands at -14.46%, showing strengthening short-term rebound momentum within a longer-term downtrend. On the weekly chart, the last completed week (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 1,449 CNY/t with a weekly change of -3.98%; no settlement days exist yet this week, so weekly conclusions reference only completed weeks. Current price is above pivot P (1,446.83 CNY/t), R1 (1,460.67 CNY/t) has been breached, and S1 (1,435.17 CNY/t) forms underlying support. If price sustains above 1,460.67 CNY/t, it may test the 20-day high of 1,763.5 CNY/t. During the night session, prices continued to advance, indicating persistent bullish sentiment.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

Coking coal fundamentals present a supply-demand mismatch pattern, with low inventories and winter stocking expectations forming the core support. As of 2026-10-08, coking coal inventories are at a five-year seasonal low, indicating persistently tight supply. Downstream steel mill winter stocking expectations are rising, with demand likely to see seasonal restocking in Q4. On the basis, spot prices remain relatively firm, and the futures discount has narrowed, reflecting market expectations of improved forward supply-demand dynamics. Regarding processing margins, coking enterprise profits remain within a reasonable range, production enthusiasm is stable, and no large-scale output cuts have occurred. Macro transmission-wise, China policy expectations provide support to the ferrous complex, particularly marginal improvements in infrastructure investment and real estate policy, indirectly boosting coking coal demand. Internationally, global energy price volatility transmits to Chinese coking coal to a limited extent. Overall, the supply-demand fundamental is tight, with low inventories and demand expectations jointly supporting coking coal price appreciation.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Top-20 seat positioning data as of 2026-09-30 shows the coking coal main contract at a net long of 14,399 lots, a day-over-day decrease of 5,173 lots, indicating some long liquidation but an overall maintained net long stance. Main nominal positioning stands at 34.50 billion CNY, with a daily change of -1.412 billion CNY—a significant reduction suggesting partial profit-taking at key levels. Positioning structure-wise, the net long of 14,399 lots indicates industry capital remains constructive on the outlook, with short covering driving prices higher. The comparison of implied volatility versus realized volatility shows market volatility is within a reasonable range, with no extreme sentiment. COT weekly changes show no notable divergence with price; price and positioning changes are largely synchronized, indicating stable market sentiment. Overall, positioning is skewed bullish, with fund flows showing long dominance, though attention should be paid to the impact of the reduction magnitude on subsequent price action.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs China

Cross-asset relative value: the gold/silver ratio is 69.95, at the 80.16% 1-year percentile and 26.72% 3-year percentile, indicating gold outperforming silver. The copper/gold ratio is 1.58, at the 96.83% 1-year percentile and 56.61% 3-year percentile, suggesting copper outperforming gold and reflecting growth expectations. The oil/gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06% 1-year percentile and 47.88% 3-year percentile, showing crude outperforming gold. The crack spread is $69.72/bbl, reflecting refining margin levels. The US Dollar Index is 102.14, the 10-year Treasury yield is 5.23%, and VIX is 15.41, indicating relatively stable risk appetite. Overall, cross-asset ratios show stable risk appetite, with the ferrous complex outperforming other commodities; onshore-offshore linkage warrants attention to subsequent data.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

Based on a sample of 20 trading days starting from October 8 over the past 13 years, DCE coking coal main continuous (DCE.JM) exhibits seasonal divergence. The historical同期 average gain is +1.7%, but the median gain is -1.29%, indicating a significant right-skew in the historical distribution, with median performance in up years weaker than the average. Among the 13-year sample, up years numbered only 5, with a win rate of approximately 38.5%, suggesting that relying solely on seasonality for long positions is unstable. The best historical performance occurred in 2016, with a同期 gain of +48.19%, primarily driven by supply-side reform expectations and restocking cycle resonance at that time; the worst was 2021, with a同期 decline of -24.3%, mainly due to strong policy regulation and rapid demand contraction. Current price at 1,476 CNY/t on 2026-10-08 is above the historical同期 average level, but combined with current low inventories and winter stocking expectations, seasonal factors may provide marginal support. Note that seasonal statistics reflect only historical probability distributions and do not constitute deterministic guidance for future trends; actual price action must be assessed in conjunction with current supply-demand and fund flows. With a win rate of only 38.5%, strategy execution should rely more on technical breakout confirmation and fundamental driver resonance rather than purely betting on seasonal patterns.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base Case (55% probability): Price extends the rebound trend, testing the 20-day high of 1,763.5 CNY/t. Trigger condition: daily close sustains above 1,460.67 CNY/t without breaching the 1,441 CNY/t key support. Target price: 1,763.5 CNY/t; corresponding operation is to hold existing long positions, with moderate position addition if price breaks above 1,500 CNY/t. This scenario is based on the current technical breakout above the 20-day MA and pivot R1, supported by low fundamental inventories, consistent with the bullish directional conclusion.

Bull Case (25% probability): Price accelerates higher, breaking above the 20-day high of 1,763.5 CNY/t and continuing to surge. Trigger condition: three consecutive daily closes above 1,763.5 CNY/t with simultaneous open interest increase. Target price: 1,850 CNY/t; corresponding operation is to add long positions after the 1,763.5 CNY/t breakout, with stop-loss trailed up to 1,700 CNY/t. This scenario requires further macro policy tailwinds or winter stocking demand exceeding expectations, representing a low-probability, high-reward situation.

Bear Case (20% probability): Price breaks below key support and reverts to range-bound decline. Trigger condition: daily close effectively below 1,441 CNY/t key support. Corresponding operation is to close all long positions and wait for new bottom signals. Target price: 1,400 CNY/t; a breach of 1,433 CNY/t may then test 1,380 CNY/t. The primary risk in this scenario stems from demand falling short of expectations or a sudden supply surge; strict stop-loss discipline is required for risk control.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

Execute the established strategy strictly: Long entry at 1,450 CNY/t, stop-loss at 1,392.2 CNY/t, target at 1,536.7 CNY/t, horizon 1–2 weeks, reward-to-risk ratio 1:1.5. The stop-loss is placed at 1,392.2 CNY/t, which sits below the key support level of 1,441, ensuring timely exit when the trend invalidates and avoiding deep entrapment. The stop distance of 57.8 CNY/t equals 1.1× ATR (ATR14 = 52.536), consistent with volatility-adjusted sizing. Contract multiplier is 60; risk per lot is 3,538 CNY (including commissions and slippage), and the single-trade risk budget of 6,693 CNY corresponds to a maximum reference position of 1 lot. For position management, initial exposure should not exceed 2% of total capital. If price breaks above 1,500 CNY/t and open interest increases, scale in modestly, but total risk exposure must not exceed 4% of total capital. Add-position rules: additions are executed only when price breaks above 1,500 CNY/t and daily close holds above that level, with each addition not exceeding 50% of the initial position. If price falls below 1,441 CNY/t, close the position immediately and do not hold through losses. This strategy is based on technical breakout and fundamental support, balancing risk-reward, and is suitable for the current moderately bullish market environment.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

At 09:30 Beijing time on October 14, China CPI y/y will be released; expectations and prior value are not yet available, with significant implications for the ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals sectors. At the same time on October 14, China PPI y/y will be released; expectations and prior value are likewise not yet available, also affecting the ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals sectors. These two data points will reflect China's inflation and industrial demand conditions, providing a potential driver for coking coal prices. Investors should closely monitor market reactions following the releases; data that beats expectations may trigger price volatility. No other significant data releases are scheduled for the remainder of the week, and market focus will center on technical and capital-flow dynamics.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

Single-name briefs Deep dive

SHFE GoldSHFE.AU 2026-10-08

沪金(SHFE.AU)深度分析报告 | 偏多：空头回补与低分位支撑 | 2026-10-08

DCE Coking Coal Continuous (DCE.JM) Deep Analysis Report | Bullish | 2026-10-08

Today's Risk Map

Single-name briefs Deep dive

Previous briefs

⟠ This month's strategy backtest