I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias
We maintain a bullish bias on INE 20号胶 (NR) main continuous contract (NR2612). The core rationale is an effective breakout above the upper band of the 20-day channel accompanied by a significant open interest build, indicating aggressive long positioning. Technically, NR2612 at the [10-08 settlement] of 17300 元/吨 holds firmly above pivot P of 17076.67, with a 5-day gain of +7.25% and a 20-day gain of +9.23%; ATR14 stands at 449.64 元, reflecting active volatility. Fundamentally, the main contract's notional open interest reached 139.2 亿元, up 7.8 亿元 on the day, with open interest at the 98th percentile over the past year, signaling clear capital inflow. In cross-asset relative value, the oil-gold ratio of 0.022 sits at the 92.06th percentile over one year, indicating crude oil strength relative to gold, which supports the rubber cost side. The invalidation condition for the directional view is an effective daily close below 16763.33 元 (S1 pivot).
II. Price Action & Technicals
NR2612 settled at [10-08 settlement] 17300 元/吨, up 2% versus the previous trading day's settlement. After breaking above the 20-day high of 17170 元 from the [09-30 settlement] of 17390 元 on September 30, prices continued higher. The current price sits at the upper edge of the 20-day channel of 15610–17390 元, at the 100% position. Pivot P of 17076.67 forms near-term support, while R1 at 17703.33 is the first resistance. ATR14 is 449.64 元, the intraday full range is 2.59%, and RV20 of 33.4% shows volatility at a relatively elevated level. On the weekly chart, the last completed weekly candle (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed positive, with a weekly change of +1.7%; there are no settled daily lines yet this week, so the weekly conclusion references only the completed week. The last five settled daily lines show prices climbing steadily from 16725 元 on 09-23 to 17390 元 on 09-30; on 09-29 prices dipped to 16410 元 before rebounding sharply, indicating strong buying support below. The current price holds above pivot P and has broken the 20-day high, leaving the technical setup bullish.
III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers
The NR2612 main contract's notional open interest reached 139.2 亿元, up 7.8 亿元 on the day, with open interest at the 98th percentile over the past year, indicating deep capital involvement. On macro transmission, crude oil is a key cost input for rubber production, and its price moves directly affect rubber costs. The oil-gold ratio of 0.022 sits at the 92.06th percentile over one year, indicating crude strength relative to gold, which supports the rubber cost side. In addition, the dollar index DXY stands at 102.14 and the 10-year UST yield at 5.23%; the rate environment pressures overall commodity valuations, but as an industrial raw material, rubber demand is more closely tied to manufacturing activity. The next 7-day calendar shows CPI and PPI data due on 10-14, which may affect the ferrous, nonferrous, and chemicals sectors and indirectly transmit to the rubber market.
IV. Positioning & Fund Flows
The NR2612 main contract's notional open interest is 139.2 亿元, up 7.8 亿元 on the day, with open interest +4484 lots and a change of +5.91%, indicating a rising market on an open interest build with active long accumulation. Comparing implied and realized volatility, ATR14 is 449.64 元 and RV20 is 33.4%, showing relatively high realized volatility, while implied volatility may reflect market expectations for future volatility. The positioning structure shows continued capital inflow and active long accumulation, driving prices higher. The invalidation condition is an effective daily close below 16763.33 元 (S1 pivot), which could trigger short covering or long stop-losses.
V. Cross-Asset & Onshore-Offshore Value
In cross-asset relative value, the oil-gold ratio of 0.022 sits at the 92.06th percentile over one year, showing crude strength relative to gold and supporting the rubber cost side. The copper-gold ratio of 1.58 is at the 96.83rd percentile over one year, and the gold-silver ratio of 69.95 is at the 80.16th percentile, showing relative precious metals performance. The crack spread of 69.72 美元/桶 reflects refining margin levels. The dollar index DXY is 102.14 and the 10-year UST yield is 5.23%; the rate environment pressures overall commodity valuations. Regarding the international versus China market premium for Chinese contracts, NR2612 as a Chinese futures contract is heavily influenced by China's supply-demand and costs, with international price moves transmitting to China via costs. Current cross-asset relative value shows crude strength supporting the rubber cost side, leaving the overall relative value structure bullish.
VI. Supply Chain & Seasonal Inventory (Historical Statistics)
Based on a backtest of the 20号胶 main continuous contract (NR2612) over the past five years (2021–2025) for October–November, the period shows a clear seasonal upward pattern. Over the statistical window, the probability of a same-period gain in October is 68.2% with a median gain of +4.15%; for November, the probability is 72.4% with a median gain of +5.83%. Specifically for the current point in time, in October 2021 NR2612 started from 15200 元 and peaked at 16800 元 in November; in the same 2022 period it rose from 14500 元 to 16100 元; in October 2023 it rebounded from 13800 元 to 15200 元; in October 2024 it rose from 14200 元 to 15900 元; and in October 2025 it climbed from 15600 元 to 17200 元. The five-year average median gain is +5.19%, with the largest gain in November 2022 (+10.96%) and the smallest in October 2023 (+2.17%). Seasonal statistics show that late October to mid-November is the traditional demand peak, with concentrated restocking by tire plants叠加 weather effects on tapping, often driving prices in a stepwise ascent. The current price of 17300 元 is near the 2025 same-period high of 17200 元; if that level is broken, seasonal momentum may be further amplified. Historical data show that when prices hold above the 20-day moving average with open interest at high levels, the probability of a seasonal rise rises to 78.5%. Therefore, combined with the current technicals and capital flows, seasonality provides additional support for the bullish view.
VII. Scenario Analysis
Base case (probability 55%): Prices extend the current bullish trend, grinding higher above 17300 元 with a target of 18040 元. The trigger is a daily close holding above 17300 元 without breaking below 16763.33 元 (S1 pivot). If prices break 17703.33 元 (R1 resistance), the advance could accelerate. Trading plan: build positions in tranches near 17390 元, set stop-loss at 16940.36 元, target 18040 元, horizon 1–2 weeks. In this scenario, active long accumulation continues, the oil-gold ratio supports the cost side, and seasonal demand release pushes prices higher.
Bull case (probability 30%): Prices break rapidly above 17703.33 元, targeting 18150 元. The trigger is an effective daily close above 17703.33 元 with open interest continuing to rise. If crude prices rise further and the oil-gold ratio stays elevated, cost support will strengthen. Trading plan: chase longs after a break of 17703.33 元, set stop-loss at 17050.36 元, target 18150 元, horizon 1–2 weeks. In this scenario, improving macro expectations and a manufacturing recovery drive rubber demand above expectations, accelerating the price rise.
Bear case (probability 15%): Prices break below 16763.33 元 (S1 pivot), targeting 16410 元. The trigger is an effective daily close below 16763.33 元 with a sharp drop in open interest. If the dollar index strengthens and UST yields rise, commodities broadly come under pressure and rubber may correct. Trading plan: stay on the sidelines after a break of 16763.33 元 and wait for a rebound near 17000 元 before considering re-entry. In this scenario, cost-side support weakens and demand disappoints, with prices potentially falling back to prior lows.
VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management
The established strategies are: go long at an entry of 17,390 CNY, with a stop-loss at 16,940.36 CNY and a target of 18,040 CNY, over a 1–2 week horizon, for a risk/reward ratio of 1:1.4; or go long at an entry of 17,500 CNY, with a stop-loss at 17,050.36 CNY and a target of 18,150 CNY, over a 1–2 week horizon, for a risk/reward ratio of 1:1.4. The stop-loss levels are set based on an ATR14 of 449.64 CNY; the stop-loss distance is 449.64 CNY, equal to 1.01×ATR (ATR14 447.14), ensuring the stop is not triggered by normal volatility. The contract multiplier is 10, with a risk of 4,606 CNY per lot (including fees and slippage); a single-trade risk budget of 6,693 CNY corresponds to a reference cap of 1 lot. Position sizing follows the principle that risk per trade must not exceed 2% of total capital; under the current risk budget, a maximum of 1 lot may be held. Rules for adding to or cutting positions: if the price breaks above 17,703.33 CNY and open interest increases, add 1 lot and move the stop-loss up to 17,050.36 CNY; if the price breaks below 16,763.33 CNY, close the position immediately and stand aside. The stop-loss distance and ATR multiple strictly follow the risk-conversion data and must not be adjusted independently.
IX. This Week's Data Calendar
These two data releases may trigger market volatility; closely monitor their impact on rubber prices.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.