📅 2026-10-08 · SHFE Gold · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

SHFE Gold (SHFE.AU) In-Depth Report | Bullish Bias: Short Covering and Low-Percentile Support | 2026-10-08

We maintain a bullish bias on SHFE gold (AU2612). The core drivers are: first, the main contract rose on falling open interest, indicating short covering led the rebound; second, the gold-silver ratio is at the 26.72 percentile over 3 years, with silver's relative strength supporting gold prices; third, the international market stabilized in the night session and the China premium repaired. The invalidation condition is a daily close below 903.47 (S1 pivot). The current price is near the lower band of the 20-day channel, with a technical need for repair.

I. Bottom Line & Directional Bias

We maintain a bullish bias on SHFE Gold (AU2612). The core drivers are: first, the main contract rose on an open interest cut, indicating that short covering dominated the rebound; second, the gold-silver ratio sits at the 26.72nd percentile of the 3-year range, with relative silver strength supporting gold prices; third, the night session saw overseas markets stabilize and the China premium repair. The invalidation condition is a daily close below 903.47 (S1 pivot). The current price is near the lower band of the 20-day channel, leaving a technical need for repair.

II. Price Action & Technical Analysis

As of the 2026-10-08 night session, the SHFE Gold (AU2612) main contract was quoted at 893.12 元/克 in the night session, down 1.32% versus the previous trading day's settlement price of 905.04 元/克. However, over a longer horizon, price remains constrained by the support of the 20-day channel's lower band. Based on the 2026-09-30 settlement data, the SHFE Gold (AU2612) settlement price was 905.04 元/克, with a 5-day decline of 2.69% and a 20-day decline of 5.14%. The current price sits at the 21.2nd percentile of the 20-day channel (892.62–977.26), indicating that price is in the lower region of the channel, with potential room for a technical rebound.

From a volatility perspective, ATR14 is 15.07 元/克 (1.65%), showing that intraday full-range movement is relatively mild. RV20 is 20%, indicating that near-term volatility has risen. On pivot levels, P is 907.37 元/克, R1 is 914.47 元/克, and S1 is 903.47 元/克. The current night session price of 893.12 元/克 is below S1, but given that the distance between S1 and the spot price is less than half an ATR (15.07/2=7.535), S1 is not yet treated as an effective support. If price can hold above 903.47, it has room to rebound toward R1 (914.47).

On the weekly chart, the last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) shows a weekly close at 910.58 元/克, a weekly decline of 1.84%. There are no settled daily bars yet this week, so the weekly conclusion can only reference the last completed weekly bar. Looking at the last 5 settled daily bars, price has retreated from the 9月23日 high of 944.76 元/克 to close at 910.58 元/克 on 9月30日, presenting a choppy downward trend. However, the rebound signs in the night session suggest the market may be seeking bottom support.

Overall, SHFE Gold (AU2612) is currently in a technically oversold zone, with early signs of stabilization in the night session. If price breaks above 903.47, it has room to rebound toward 914.47; if it falls below 903.47, it may probe further down to the 20-day channel lower band at 892.62 元/克.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

From the supply-demand balance data, COMEX gold registered inventories stand at 15.07 Moz (468,730 kilograms), as of 2026-10-07, with a daily change of 0%. SHFE gold warrants total 116,028 kilograms, as of 2026-09-30, with a daily change of -3 kilograms (0%). GLD holdings are 34,115,575 ounces, as of 2026-10-07, up 0.72% versus 20 trading days prior. These data indicate that global gold inventories are relatively stable, but the modest increase in ETF holdings shows that investor allocation demand for gold remains.

From a macro transmission perspective, the US dollar and rate environment are pressuring gold prices. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is 102.14, down 0.1% versus the previous trading day; the US 10-year Treasury yield is 5.23%, down 0.87% versus the previous trading day. Lower rates reduce the cost of holding gold, thereby supporting prices. However, gold's safe-haven attribute is more prominent in the current market environment. International headlines show that the Netherlands central bank transferred 86 tonnes of gold to China, indicating that central-bank-level reserve adjustments are ongoing, which provides long-term support for gold prices.

In addition, seasonal factors warrant attention. Statistics for the same date over the past 15 years, measured over 20 trading days, show an average gain of +0.4%, a median of +0.38%, with up years accounting for 9/15 years. Although the sample is limited, the seasonal pattern still provides some support for gold prices.

Overall, the supply-demand fundamentals are relatively stable, and lower rates plus central-bank gold purchases in the macro environment support gold prices. However, near-term prices remain affected by technical volatility, and the night session trend should be monitored.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Top-20 seat positioning data show that, as of 2026-09-30, the top-20 seats' net position in SHFE Gold (AU2612) was 156,552 lots, up 2,092 lots on the day, with a net long direction. This indicates that long capital has increased recently, and market sentiment is leaning optimistic. The main contract's notional open interest is 2054.2亿元, with a daily change of -2.09亿元; open interest fell by 229 lots, yet price rose 1.42%, showing a rise on an open interest cut with clear short-covering characteristics.

From a COT perspective, on the international side, as of 2026-09-29, managed money net positioning was 120,318 lots, with a weekly change of -7,071 lots. COT crowding shows net positioning at 29.6% of total, with a crowding level of 92.51, at a high 3-year percentile, indicating that long sentiment is relatively crowded. However, the CTA proxy indicator is 62, showing that trend-following strategies still lean long.

On implied versus realized volatility, ^GVZ (gold implied volatility) is 23.39, up 0.42 points versus the previous trading day, with a 1-year percentile of 18%. GC=F's RV20 is 16.9%, and the IV-RV spread is +6.5 vol points, indicating that the options market is pricing in relatively high event risk, with implied volatility above realized volatility, which may signal rising expectations for future volatility.

Overall, the positioning structure shows long capital increasing, but market sentiment is relatively crowded. The rise in implied volatility may signal rising expectations for future volatility, which provides a potential volatility premium for gold prices.

V. Cross-Asset & Onshore-Offshore Value

From a cross-asset relative value perspective, the gold-silver ratio is 69.95, with a 1-year percentile of 80.16% and a 3-year percentile of 26.72%. The gold-silver ratio is at a 3-year low, indicating that silver is strengthening relative to gold, which usually implies a recovery in risk appetite, though gold's safe-haven attribute remains in focus. The copper-gold ratio is 1.58, with a 1-year percentile of 96.83% and a 3-year percentile of 56.61%. The copper-gold ratio is at a 1-year high, indicating strong growth expectations, though gold's safe-haven attribute remains in focus. The oil-gold ratio is 0.022, with a 1-year percentile of 92.06% and a 3-year percentile of 47.88%. The oil-gold ratio is at a 1-year high, indicating that crude oil is strengthening relative to gold, which may reflect a recovery in energy demand.

From an onshore-offshore comparison, the SHFE Gold (AU2612) premium over GC=F is +0.87%, as of 2026-09-30. The premium 5 days prior was -0.67%, indicating that China gold prices have strengthened relative to the international market. This premium repair may reflect increased allocation demand for gold by Chinese investors, as well as the impact of FX volatility.

Overall, cross-asset relative value shows gold is weak relative to silver, copper, and crude oil, but the repair in the onshore-offshore premium indicates that China gold prices have strengthened relative to the international market. This provides additional support for SHFE Gold (AU2612).

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

Based on historical statistics for the same date over the past 15 years, measured over 20 trading days, SHFE Gold (AU2612) has shown an overall warm seasonal performance in early October. The sample covers the 2011 to 2025 period, with an average gain of +0.4% and a median gain of +0.38%. Of the 15 yearly samples, 9 years recorded gains, an up probability of 60%, showing that this period has seasonal bullish support. The best historical performance occurred in 2011, with a gain of +6.72% over the same period; the worst occurred in 2014, with a decline of -5.65%. The market is currently in the seasonal window; although historical volatility is large, the up probability is slightly higher than the down probability, which provides historical-data-level corroboration for the current bullish bias. Seasonal statistics show that early October is often a period when gold demand begins to recover, and combined with long-term factors such as central-bank gold purchases, this further enhances the win rate for going long in this time window. Although the sample size is limited, the historical pattern remains informative, especially when the technicals are in the 20-day channel lower-band support zone, where seasonal factors may amplify the rebound.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base Case (60% probability): Price stabilizes and rebounds. Trigger condition: daily close re-establishes above 903.47 (S1 pivot), and the night session international market GC=F finds support above 4,130 USD/oz. Target: 914.47 (R1); if breached, further upside toward 920. Trading recommendation: build long positions in tranches within the 903.47–907.37 range, with stop-loss set below 903.47 and target at 914.47. This scenario is based on the logic that the current price sits at the lower band of the 20-day channel, seasonals are supportive, and long capital is re-entering, consistent with the earlier bullish-leaning conclusion.

Bullish Case (25% probability): Strong breakout. Trigger condition: daily close effectively breaks above 914.47 (R1), and international market GC=F breaks above 4,195.27 (R1). Target: 925, or even 930. Trading recommendation: chase longs after the break above 914.47, with stop-loss set below 914.47 and target at 925. This scenario requires a further weakening of the US dollar index and central-bank gold purchases as catalysts, and represents a high-beta move.

Bearish Case (15% probability): Breakdown. Trigger condition: daily close falls below 903.47 (S1 pivot), and international market GC=F breaks below 4,088.67 (S1). Downside target: 892.62 (lower band of the 20-day channel); if breached, further downside toward 885. Trading recommendation: enter short positions after the break below 903.47, with stop-loss set above 903.47 and target at 892.62. This is an invalidation scenario; strict risk control is required to avoid counter-trend trading.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

No defined strategy at present; recommend waiting on the sidelines for a clear signal. Re-entry trigger levels: daily close re-establishes above 903.47 (S1 pivot), or the international market GC=F finds support above 4,130 USD/oz. If price breaks below 903.47, treat it as an invalidation condition and stay out. Stop-loss should be placed below key support to avoid being triggered by random volatility. Position sizing is recommended at no more than 10% of total capital to control risk. Add/reduce rules: build positions in tranches within the 903.47–907.37 range, no more than 5% per tranche; add another 5% after a break above 914.47, with total exposure capped at 15%. If price breaks below 903.47, close positions immediately to avoid widening losses. ATR14 is 15.07 CNY/g; the stop-loss distance should be at least 0.5×ATR, i.e. 7.535 CNY/g or more, to ensure a reasonable stop placement. On risk conversion, each contract is worth 1,000 grams and should be adjusted dynamically to total account capital. Current realized volatility RV20 is 20% and implied volatility IV is 23.39; reduce position size when market volatility intensifies.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

Beijing time October 14 at 09:30; US CPI y/y data released October 13 at 21:30, with consensus and prior values undisclosed; significant impact on the black, nonferrous, and chemicals sectors. PPI y/y data released the same day at 09:30, with consensus and prior values undisclosed, also affecting the black, nonferrous, and chemicals sectors. Other key data points are not yet listed; market developments should be monitored closely.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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