📅 2026-10-08 · SHFE Nickel · Single-name brief Legacy coverage

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

SHFE Nickel (SHFE.NI) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish | 2026-10-08

SHFE Nickel (NI2611) is currently bearish, with the core logic being that the price has broken below a key support level and open interest shows longs actively exiting. Technically, the October 8 settlement price of 119,550 CNY/ton has broken below pivot S1 (121,530) and is approaching the lower band of the 20-day channel, with the night session continuing to weaken. Fundamentally, LME inventory has increased by a cumulative 13,254 tons over 20 consecutive periods, and while SHFE warrants have slightly decreased, overall supply pressure remains unchanged. On the capital side, the net short position of the top 20 seats has increased to 23,030 lots, indicating rising institutional bearish sentiment. If the price effectively breaks below 118,000 CNY/ton, further downside space will open up.

I. Core Conclusions & Directional Bias

The current SHFE Nickel (SHFE.NI) main contract NI2611 has a clearly bearish directional bias. The core driving logic rests on three pillars: First, price structure breakdown—the October 8 settlement price of 119,550 CNY/t [2026-10-08 settlement] has breached the pivot S1 (121,530 CNY/t) and the lower bound of the 20-day channel (120,270 CNY/t), with the night session extending the decline. Second, positioning favors shorts—the top 20 brokerages' net short position stands at 23,030 lots [2026-09-30], with a daily increase of 1,544 lots, indicating institutional capital is persistently adding to short exposure. Third, fundamental supply pressure is emerging—LME nickel inventory has increased by a cumulative 13,254 tonnes over the past 20 reporting periods [2026-10-07]; although SHFE warrants have declined modestly, the overall inventory build trend is capping price recovery potential.

*Invalidation condition for the directional thesis:* If the daily close reclaims 121,530 CNY/t, or the night session breaks above 122,390 CNY/t (pivot R1) on elevated volume, the short-term bearish logic is falsified, shifting the bias to range-bound or bullish.

II. Price Action & Technicals

SHFE Nickel (NI2611) exhibits a distinctly bearish technical alignment. As of the October 8 settlement price of 119,550 CNY/t [2026-10-08 settlement], the price declined 2.47% versus the prior trading day (122,040 CNY/t [2026-09-30 settlement]), with the 5-day drawdown widening to 2.31% and the 20-day cumulative decline reaching 4.71%. The current price has broken below pivot S1 (121,530 CNY/t) and is approaching the lower bound of the 20-day channel (120,270 CNY/t), positioning at the 19.1st percentile of the 20-day range (120,270–129,540 CNY/t), indicating short-term oversold conditions but an unchanged downtrend.

Regarding volatility, ATR14 stands at 1,934.29 CNY/t (1.58%), with substantial intraday trading ranges, and RV20 at 14.8%, suggesting heightened recent price fluctuations. On the weekly chart, the most recently completed weekly candle (2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30) closed at 122,040 CNY/t, with a weekly decline of 2.62%; no settlement daily candles exist for the current week, so weekly conclusions can only reference this completed week. The night session extended the decline, with prices probing 118,150 CNY/t, indicating persistent bearish momentum. Should the price continue to break below 118,000 CNY/t, the next support level may be found near 116,500 CNY/t.

III. Supply-Demand Balance & Fundamental Drivers

On the fundamental side, nickel supply-side pressure has become more apparent. LME nickel inventory as of October 7 stood at 284,178 tonnes, with a daily change of 0 tonnes, but a cumulative increase of 13,254 tonnes over the past 20 reporting periods, signaling persistent global inventory accumulation. SHFE nickel warrants as of September 30 were 90,835 tonnes, down 739 tonnes on the day (-0.81%); although showing a modest decline, overall inventory pressure remains undiminished. The inventory build trend is suppressing price recovery potential, particularly against a backdrop of no significant improvement in global demand, which is exacerbating oversupply concerns.

On macro transmission, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was reported at 102.14 on October 8, edging down 0.1%, but the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.23%, with the high-interest-rate environment dampening industrial metals demand. China's CPI and PPI data are scheduled for release on October 14; if the data disappoints, nickel prices will face further downward pressure. Additionally, as a critical raw material for stainless steel and new energy batteries, nickel demand is highly correlated with macroeconomic conditions. Current macro uncertainty is increasing, which weighs on nickel prices.

IV. Positioning & Fund Flows

Positioning data indicates short-side dominance. Top 20 brokerage holdings data shows that on October 8, net short positions stood at 23,030 lots, with a daily increase of 1,544 lots, confirming a net short direction. The main contract's notional open interest was 16.05 billion CNY, down 0.084 billion CNY on the day, with open interest declining by 687 lots, indicating that longs are actively exiting while shorts are covering or adopting a wait-and-see stance. Under this pattern of declining open interest with falling prices, downside resistance is relatively limited.

Regarding the comparison between implied volatility and realized volatility, RV20 stands at 14.8% and ATR14 at 1,934.29 CNY/t, indicating that market volatility has intensified. However, the price decline accompanied by falling open interest suggests that longs are hitting stop-losses and exiting, while shorts have not significantly added positions—rather, it reflects waning long conviction. This positioning structure is unfavorable for price rebounds, further confirming the bearish directional bias.

V. Cross-Asset Relative Value & Global vs China Markets

On cross-asset relative value, the gold/silver ratio stands at 69.95, at the 80.16th percentile over the past year, indicating gold is relatively strong versus silver; the copper/gold ratio is 1.58, at the 96.83rd percentile over the past year, suggesting copper is significantly stronger relative to gold, reflecting growth expectations; the oil/gold ratio is 0.022, at the 92.06th percentile over the past year, showing crude oil is relatively expensive versus gold. These ratio shifts reflect declining risk appetite and capital flows toward safe-haven assets, exerting pressure on industrial metals such as nickel.

Regarding international versus Chinese markets, SHFE Nickel (NI2611) trades at a certain premium to LME nickel, but with current LME inventory accumulation, the spread between international and domestic markets is converging. Chinese night session performance is weaker than international markets, indicating soft domestic demand. Synthesizing cross-asset relative value and global vs China market performance, nickel prices are unlikely to rally independently in the short term and will likely continue to track macro trends and inventory dynamics lower.

VI. Historical Statistics & Seasonality

Based on historical statistics covering the 20 trading days starting from October 8 over the past 11 years, SHFE Nickel (SHFE.NI) seasonal performance shows divergent characteristics. The statistical sample indicates an average gain of +0.84% for this period, but a median return of -1.68%, suggesting that more years historically have exhibited declines. Among the 11 sample years, only 5 were up years and 6 were down years, yielding an up-year win rate of approximately 45.5%. The best-performing year was 2017, with a同期 gain of +22.59%; the worst-performing year was 2024, with a同期 decline of -6.39%. Currently in 2026, combined with the aforementioned bearish directional bias, historical statistics indicate that seasonality is not a strong supporting factor—the median decline and sub-50% up-year win rate further corroborate the likelihood of price pressure under current conditions. Although the average gain is positive, the median better reflects the actual performance of the majority of years, meaning seasonal headwinds outweigh tailwinds. Therefore, absent strong fundamental drivers, seasonal statistics do not support a significant price rebound and may instead reinforce the continuation of the downtrend.

VII. Scenario Analysis

Base Case (55% probability): Prices continue the bearish trend, with the core logic being inventory accumulation and short-side dominance in positioning. Trigger condition: daily close fails to hold above 121,530 CNY/t, and the night session does not break above 122,390 CNY/t on elevated volume. Target prices: 118,583 CNY/t (1-5 day horizon) and 119,104 CNY/t (1-2 week horizon). *Trading recommendation:* Maintain short positions; consider adding to shorts near 122,040 CNY/t if prices rebound, with a stop-loss set at 124,344.5 CNY/t.

Bullish Case (25% probability): A technical rebound occurs, triggered by a daily close reclaiming 121,530 CNY/t, or a night session breakout above 122,390 CNY/t on elevated volume. Target price: 124,344.5 CNY/t (corresponding to the stop-loss level flipping to a target). *Trading recommendation:* If trigger conditions are met, close short positions and consider initiating a light long position, with a stop-loss below 121,530 CNY/t.

Bearish Acceleration Case (20% probability): Prices accelerate lower, triggered by an effective break below the 118,000 CNY/t key support level. Target price: near 116,500 CNY/t. *Trading recommendation:* If the price breaks below 118,000 CNY/t, add to short positions, with a stop-loss above 120,000 CNY/t.

VIII. Trading Strategies & Risk Management

This strategy strictly follows the established plan: short entry price at 122,040 CNY/t, stop-loss at 124,344.5 CNY/t, target prices at 118,583 CNY/t (1-5 days) and 119,104 CNY/t (1-2 weeks), with a duration of 1-5 days or 1-2 weeks, and risk-reward ratios of 1:1.5 and 1:1.3 respectively. The stop-loss is set at 124,344.5 CNY/t because this level corresponds to 1.1× ATR (ATR14 = 2,095 CNY/t), which can absorb normal volatility noise and avoid being stopped out by short-term oscillations. Risk per lot is 2,335 CNY (including commissions and slippage), and the single-trade risk budget of 6,693 CNY corresponds to a reference maximum of 2 lots. For position management, initial position size should not exceed 2 lots; if the price moves toward the target without triggering the stop-loss, consider adding near 122,040 CNY/t, but total risk exposure must not exceed 3× the single-trade budget. If the price breaks above 124,344.5 CNY/t, exit immediately to avoid larger losses.

IX. This Week's Data Calendar

No significant data releases scheduled for other dates this week.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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