📅 2026-10-08
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PTA · Single-name brief
This report is provided by MacroTerms.com
Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)
郑商所PTA主力连续(CZCE.TA)深度分析 | 减仓上涨后方向偏空 | 2026-10-08
方向结论：偏空。核心理由：一是报告日前一交易日（2026-09-30）结算价6268元/吨，虽当日对昨结上涨0.74%，但主力持仓单日减少70523手至1016989手，主力名义持仓单日缩水22.21亿元至320.4亿元，属减仓上涨、空头回补驱动，缺乏多头主动增仓的持续性；二是近15年同日起20个交易日季节性统计显示上涨仅3/15年，中位涨跌-5.16%，历史同期偏空；三是20日累计涨幅已达6.24%，价格处于20日通道55.1%位置，上方6672元/吨为区间上沿，而ATR14高达205.14元/吨（3.26%），波动放大后回补风险上升。方向失效条件：若后续结算价有效站上20日高点6672元/吨且伴随主力持仓同步增加，则空头逻辑失效，转为观望。
This brief is published in Chinese. The English translation is being prepared.
🇺🇸English original - AI-generated research (not machine translation)
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