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Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)
铁矿石（DCE.I）深度分析报告｜偏空 | 2026-10-08
方向结论：偏空。DCE.I 铁矿石主力合约（2026-09-30 结算 704.
5）处于20日通道 698–745 的 9.6% 低分位，5日 -0.78%、20日 -3.3% 的弱势结构未改，国际市场 FEF=F 同步跌至 20 日区间 7.1% 分位、20日 -7.32%，国际与中国市场共振向下。前20席位净空 -15212 手、主力名义持仓单日缩水 20.36 亿元，减仓上涨属空头回补而非多头主动增仓，反弹缺乏增量资金承接。中国去税折算溢价 +7.88%（5日前 +5.35%）显示中国市场相对偏贵，进口窗口倾向打开，对中国市场形成压制。季节性近12年同日起20个交易日中位数 -1.64%、胜率仅 5/12，亦偏不利。方向失效条件：DCE.I 结算价有效站上 20 日通道上沿 745 或连续两日收于 715 上方并伴随主力增仓，则空头逻辑作废。
This brief is published in Chinese. The English translation is being prepared.
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