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Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)
低硫燃油(INE.LU)深度分析报告 | 2026-10-08 偏空:M2611失守5200后关注5096支撑 | 2026-10-08
方向结论:偏空。低硫燃油主力M2611在2026-09-30结算5199,单日-2.88%、5日-5.28%,已跌破枢轴P 5188.33,20日通道位置仅32.9%,上一根已收盘周线(09-28~09-30)收5162、周跌8.75%,技术结构转弱。三条核心理由:一是EIA原油库存4周累计+2860千桶、较五年同期均值+1.9%,成本端缺乏向上驱动;二是主力名义持仓单日减少3.55亿元至26.2亿元、持仓-6876手,呈减仓下跌(多头离场),资金面不支持反弹;三是近6年同日起20个交易日季节性平均-3.34%、中位数-2.59%、上涨仅1/6年。方向失效条件:M2611结算价重新站上5254.67(枢轴R1)并伴随持仓回升,则空头逻辑作废。
This brief is published in Chinese. The English translation is being prepared.
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