📅 2026-10-08
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INE Crude · Single-name brief
This report is provided by MacroTerms.com
Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)
原油(INE.SC)深度分析报告 | 2026-10-08 偏空：低持仓下的减仓下跌 | 2026-10-08
方向结论：偏空。核心逻辑有三：其一，INE.SC主力M2611在9月30日结算696.1元/桶，较前结算下跌0.82%，5日累计下跌1.8%，主力持仓单日减少4689手至24978手，主力名义持仓单日缩水33.34亿元，呈减仓下跌形态，多头离场而非空头回补；其二，EIA原油库存截至9月25日为427,320千桶，周度增加922千桶，四周累计增加2,860千桶，较五年同期均值高1.9%，而汽油、馏分油去库更多是炼厂开工与季节性消费的结果，尚不足以扭转原油端累库方向；其三，国际与中国市场比价显示INE.SC对BZ=F去税折算溢价为+8.14%，较5日前的+13.34%明显收敛，进口窗口倾向打开，中国市场相对国际市场的估值支撑正在削弱。方向失效条件：若M2611结算价有效站上枢轴R1 726.9元/桶并伴随主力持仓回升，则空头逻辑失效，转为观望。
This brief is published in Chinese. The English translation is being prepared.
🇺🇸English original - AI-generated research (not machine translation)
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