📅 2026-10-08
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Butadiene Rubber · Single-name brief
This report is provided by MacroTerms.com
Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)
上期所丁二烯橡胶主力连续(SHFE.BR)深度分析报告 | 减仓上涨后高位整理，偏多 | 2026-10-08
结论偏多：BR2611在国庆前最后一个结算日（09-30）收于16000、结算15870，单日+3.96%、5日+7.38%、20日+7.74%，价格处于20日通道88.5%高分位，但主力持仓单日减少4127手、名义持仓日减3.3亿元，属空头回补驱动的减仓上涨，而非多头主动增仓，因此方向偏多但强度需打折。三条核心理由：一是价格站上枢轴P 15813.33并逼近20日高点16210，中期结构未破坏；二是前20席位空头减仓4728手、净空收窄至-3209手，空头压力边际缓解；三是节后首日无夜盘结算，需等待10-14 CPI/PPI给出宏观方向。方向失效条件：BR2611结算价有效跌破S1 15416.67，或反弹至R1 16396.67附近出现增仓滞涨。
This brief is published in Chinese. The English translation is being prepared.
🇺🇸English original - AI-generated research (not machine translation)
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