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Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)
DCE.BB(DCE.BB)深度分析报告 | 窄幅震荡中的低波动结构 | 2026-10-09
方向结论为中性观望。DCE.BB 胶合板主力合约结算价147.9[10-08结算],5日-0.03%、20日+0.68%,价格位于20日通道145.2–149.2的68.8%位置,贴近枢轴P 148,ATR14仅1.13(0.76%),RV20 5.3%,波动率处于极低水平,缺乏趋势性驱动。三条核心理由:一是价格在145.2–149.2区间内反复,20日涨幅不足1%,方向信号弱;二是主力持仓仅49手(+3),持仓规模极小,多空双方均无显著增仓意愿;三是跨资产比价显示铜金比1.58处1年96.83%高分位、油金比0.022处1年92.06%高分位,宏观风险偏好偏强但与本品种传导链条薄弱。方向失效条件:若结算价有效突破149.2(20日高点)或跌破145.2(20日低点),则中性判断失效,转为跟随突破方向。
This brief is published in Chinese. The English translation is being prepared.
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