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Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange final daily settlement

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Bullish Rebound on Contango & Seasonal Tailwind | 2026-10-09

We maintain a bullish bias on Natural Gas (NG=F) for the near term, targeting a retest of the 20-day channel upper band at 3.395, with an invalidation if the contract breaks below the key support at 2.9987. This call is anchored in three converging factors: a structurally deep contango structure that penalizes short-term holders and incentivizes storage, a seasonal tailwind that historically delivers positive returns in the first half of October, and a technical setup where the asset has reclaimed the 20-day moving average after a sharp weekly correction. While the market remains technically oversold on a weekly basis, the intraday momentum in early Asian trade suggests a relief rally is underway. We advise clients to look for long entries on dips toward the 3.1 level, with tight stops below the recent swing low. The primary risk remains a macro-driven spike in equities that could drag all risk assets lower, but the fundamental supply-demand balance favors higher prices over the next 20 sessions.