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Data as of: 2026-10-08 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)
上期所 沪铝主力连续(SHFE.AL)深度分析报告 | 增仓破位,偏空 | 2026-10-09
方向结论:偏空。沪铝主力M2611在10月8日结算价23585元/吨,单日跌2.15%,5日跌3.39%,20日跌2.97%,并跌破此前20日低点23800元/吨,触发本期深度报告。主力名义持仓316.0亿元、日增13.61亿元,持仓增11644手而价格下跌,属空头主动增仓,前20席位净空16528手。SHFE铝仓单118396吨(截至10月8日)日减3467吨,LME库存238875吨(截至10月7日)持平,库存端尚未形成压力,但国际与中国市场比价由5日前-1.62%转为+1.5%,中国铝转为偏贵,进口窗口倾向打开,压制中国价格。技术面价格贴近20日通道下沿(位置2.6%),ATR14为236.07元,波动放大。方向失效条件:若结算价重新站上23800元/吨并伴随持仓回落,则空头逻辑失效。
This brief is published in Chinese. The English translation is being prepared.
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