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データ基準日: 2026-10-08 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

OJ=F Deep Dive | Bullish Rebound on Oversold Conditions | 2026-10-09

We maintain a bullish bias for orange juice futures, targeting a sustained rebound from current oversold levels. The primary catalyst is the sharp technical oversold condition combined with a constructive supply-side narrative, as the market has priced in significant downside risk without fully reflecting potential supply constraints. Our thesis rests on three pillars: the technical rebound from key support, the structural supply deficit in the Florida citrus sector, and the recent positioning shift indicating capitulation by bears. The invalidation level is a decisive break below 143.13, which would signal a deeper correction toward 135.1. While macro headwinds remain, the specific fundamentals for orange juice are decoupling from broader commodity trends, offering a distinct directional opportunity. We expect the contract to test the 149.97 resistance zone in the near term, with a higher probability of success given the current momentum and lack of selling pressure.